Monthly Archives: July 2006


Examples of Ecological Niche Models from GARP 5

GARP is an acronym for Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production. GARP is an algorithm primarily designed for predicting the potential distribution of biological entities from raster based environmental and biological data. This post describes examples of the interpretation of different sets of rules developed by GARP. Abundance of Greater Glider The Greater Glider (Petauroides […]


Bayesian Networks 6

The problem with many models, from climate systems to multiple species and ecosystems processes, to consumer purchasing behaviour is that we often have very little understanding of the actual relationships between the variables in the system. From our limited vantage point as observers of and not experimenters on systems we only see many weakly correlated […]


Quantitative Niche Market Research 18

Niche marketing is the process of finding and serving small but potentially profitable market segments. These small market segments can be visualized as part of a “long tail”, a term elaborated by Chris Anderson in his longtail blog. Niche markets are important for small businesses, as they can find it profitable to serve markets too […]


Writing a Book Using R 21

Think faster than “How to write a book in 28 days”. With the freely available R language you can create a book in less than 28 seconds. Unfortunately, you still have to write the text and do the programming. What you can do is integrate the R code and text into the same files, then […]


Multiple Lines of Plausible Evidence 8

The process behind the Mann “hockey stick” paper, featured by Al Gore in his movie “An Inconvienient Truth” has been damned by the US National Academy of Sciences Report. (the Wegman Report.) But how much difference should this make to belief in global warming? The Wegman report addresses one of the questions asked by Barton’s […]


Hwang Woo Suk, Blogs, and Mann 7

I’ll make it clear from the outset that the falsification of data by Hwang Woo Suk and flawed results of Mann Bradley and Hughes are completely different situations. There are some similarities though. One, seemed to open a door to therapeutic cloning that could benefit millions of people with debilitating illnesses such as Alzheimer’s and […]


How a Hockey Stick led to a Committee Hearing 9

According to the Wall Street Journal editorial, a semiretired Toronto minerals consultant and an economist, with about $5,000 of his own money and time, took on an apparently simple task — trying to double-check the influential graphic known as the “hockey stick” — and eventually confronted an influential scientific community before a Congressional Committee, and […]


Avian Influenza No Spatial Change 6

The WHO Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response reports no change in the spatial distribution of human cases of H5N1 avian influenza, although cases occurring in Indonesia is consistent with linear projections. Below are most recent cases from affected countries. Azerbaijan — 11 April 2006 — The case is a 17-year-old girl who developed symptoms […]


When r2 Regression is Very High 8

The coefficient of determination, or r2, is the ratio of explained variation to total variation of two variables X and Y. The coefficient ranges from −1 to 1, where a value of 1 is an exact, positive linear relationship, with all data points lying on the same line. A value of 0 shows no linear […]


Simple Linear Regression of Rainfall 6

From forecasting the onset of the Monsoon in India, to mapping the drought in the USA, and worsening drought in Australia, insight from statistics into rainfall patterns affects everyone. The following documents contain technical information on regression models and rainfall, organized from the simplest linear regression to the more technical local spatial and temporal fitting […]


Intelligent Design of Jenny Chow — Act II 4

Just after the release of the National Academy of Sciences report ‘Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years‘ I compared the ‘hockey stick graph’ — a reconstruction of Millennial global temperatures based on tree-ring and other proxies by Mann and colleagues — to a broadway production in The Intelligent Design of MBH98. Statistics packages […]


Options for ACF in R 6

The autocorrelation function is one of the Niche model basics in the R language. The ACF is the real deal when it comes to diagnosing the internal character of series data, as was done for scale invariance in Scale Invariance for Dummies. Questions of internal character of series are very topical, such as “How Red […]


Global Distribution Models of Species 1

To develop global distribution models of species you need global data. A major component of the datamining methodology in WhyWhere is access to a large number of global datasets. At last count over 1000 layers were available for download, testing for correlates and building models. These are organized as lists. The following are the lists […]


PDFs on Biodiversity Modeling 4

Biodiversity modeling is about multiple species and their relationships, in contrast to individual species and their environment. This leads to slightly different approaches and problems. My selection of the documents of historic influence, the programs in the field, and some of the more important recent papers follow. Reports An Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia: A […]


Standard Statistical Packages 9

If you have an interest in Statistics packages, for finance, investment, or science, you soon find out how expensive they are. I thought I would do a short survey of the standard statistical packages, and see how the free ones compare. MiniTab — “The World Trusts Minitab for Quality”. A 30 day free demo is […]


Predicting Numbers 14

Niche modeling is about using probability distributions to predict. From the obscure journal article department comes a strategy for winning at Lotto using niche modeling. Schemes have often been proposed to predict the best numbers for lotteries. One of the most common uses the fact that some numbers are bet more than others, thus betting […]


Intelligent Thought by Brockman. Review 2

This book is a compilation of arguments against Intelligent Design (ID), from sixteen of the world’s leading evolutionary biologists. It includes the full text of the Harrisberg PA, Dec. 20 judgement where a federal judge ruled against teaching ID in schools. The book will reinforce the arguments of the judge and perhaps stop ID from […]


Niche Modeling. Chapter Summary 6

Here is a summary of the chapters in my upcoming book Niche Modeling to be published by CRC Press. Many of the topics have been introduced as posts on the blog. My deepest thanks to everyone who has commented and so helped in the refinement of ideas, and particularly in providing motivation and focus. Writing […]


Comparison of Predictive Models of Species Distributions 2

Statistical Predictive Models in Ecology: Comparison of Performances and Assessment of Applicability Authors: Can Ozan Tan, Uygar Ozesmi, Meryem Beklioglu, Esra Per, Bahtiyar Kurt Comments: Submitted to Ecological Informatics This interesting study on the open archive site arXiv (now in Ecological Informatics 1:195-211) compares some predictive models for species distribution not examined in the study […]