Douglass et al. 2007 may represent a history-of-science-in-the-making showdown between two theories, the infinitely-thick theory of atmospheres as used in GCMs, and the semi-transparent atmospheric model as proposed by Miskolczi. Read the rest of this entry…

What are the implications and limitations of the semi-infinite atmosphere theory of Ferenc Miskolczi — a theoretical model for greenhouse effect in the atmosphere? Read the rest of this entry…

“According to a new U.N. report, the global warming outlook is much worse than originally predicted. Which is pretty bad when they originally predicted it would destroy the planet.” –Jay Leno
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How much error is there in smoothed climatic and financial series? How much does variability at the ends of the series affect the trend as a result? Here we showed that certain ways of treating the end points introduce a lot of variability. Here we show in certain smoothers variability at the ends can affect the whole smooth! Read the rest of this entry…

Well it is almost 24 hours since I posted the comment below to RealClimate at the post by Stefan Rahmstorf, about the inconsistency in the methodology used in their Science Brevia article to show that climate is trending higher than IPCC models. As yet the post has not appeared. I can’t see how it breeches their moderation policy, so I guess I am being told to go pound sand. Read the rest of this entry…

So appropriate for this blog I couldn’t resist. Take a break from Dickey-Fuller tests and Cluster Multivariate models. Read the rest of this entry…

Here I show more humorous effects of smoothed trend lines with the ‘minimum roughness condition’ (MRC). The confidence limits blow out. Read the rest of this entry…

There appears to be an error in the influential paper by Rahmstorf et al. (2007). Rahmstorf et.al. (Science Brevia, 4 May 2007, p709 [1]) reports that the trend of the global mean of surface temperature and sea level raise concerns that the climate system “may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates”. At least one major study, Interim Report of the Garnaut Review, relies on the paper for advocating prompt and extreme action on carbon emissions, one of its major conclusions (Section 2.4 Consequences of Climate Change, Observed Climate Change). But there seems to be a problem. Read the rest of this entry…

March temperatures hold a surprise. While temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere and tropical latitudes have continued the year-long cooling trend, Northern Hemisphere temperatures have rebounded sharply. The figure below shows the temperatures since 2006, and the latest lower troposphere temperatures from RSS MSU. Read the rest of this entry…

Another index of global warming has rolled over – sea level. It has been reported recently that temperatures of the ocean surface have declined in the last four years. Not only that, sea levels have stopped rising in the last two years, as the graph below shows. This shows the global mean sea level level rise by satellite altimeter, with a clear fall in sea level dating to early 2006. Read the rest of this entry…

A thought for April Fools Day. Seen on the whiteboard of a construction office.

“Kevin’s ABC”

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