Monthly Archives: April 2008

Douglass et al 2007 and Atmospheric Models 23

Douglass et al. 2007 may represent a history-of-science-in-the-making showdown between two theories, the infinitely-thick theory of atmospheres as used in GCMs, and the semi-transparent atmospheric model as proposed by Miskolczi. It misses the point — that the observations discriminate between theories — to focus on the details of the statistical test of the GCMs. To […]

Free CO2 For All 44

What are the implications and limitations of the semi-infinite atmosphere theory of Ferenc Miskolczi — a theoretical model for greenhouse effect in the atmosphere? Unlike current models suggesting a range of 1.5C to 5C increase in global temperatures from doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, the semi-infinite theory suggests very little warming from increases in […]

Rahmstorf 7 Finale 32

“According to a new U.N. report, the global warming outlook is much worse than originally predicted. Which is pretty bad when they originally predicted it would destroy the planet.” –Jay Leno If ever there was a good example of alarmists views being given a free ride by a major journal, then the publication in Science […]

Examples of simple smoothers

How much error is there in smoothed climatic and financial series? How much does variability at the ends of the series affect the trend as a result? Here we showed that certain ways of treating the end points introduce a lot of variability. Here we show in certain smoothers variability at the ends can affect […]

Rahmstorf et al. 2007 Update 8

Well it is almost 24 hours since I posted the comment below to RealClimate at the post by Stefan Rahmstorf, about the inconsistency in the methodology used in their Science Brevia article to show that climate is trending higher than IPCC models. As yet the post has not appeared. I can’t see how it breeches […]

Confidence Limits of Minimum Roughness Criterion 17

Here I show more humorous effects of smoothed trend lines with the ‘minimum roughness condition’ (MRC). The confidence limits blow out. Fitting a straight line to data such as global temperature data is a common linear regression example problem. Linear regression of stock prices tells you your rate of appreciation. Smoothing, (or filtering) is used […]

Rahmstorf et al. 2007 IPCC Error? 52

There appears to be an error in the influential paper by Rahmstorf et al. (2007). Rahmstorf (Science Brevia, 4 May 2007, p709 [1]) reports that the trend of the global mean of surface temperature and sea level raise concerns that the climate system “may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current […]

March 2008 Temperatures 94

March temperatures hold a surprise. While temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere and tropical latitudes have continued the year-long cooling trend, Northern Hemisphere temperatures have rebounded sharply. The figure below shows the temperatures since 2006, and the latest lower troposphere temperatures from RSS MSU. Temperatures in the NH have gone north while SH temps have gone […]

More Evidence of Climate Stabilization 15

Another index of global warming has rolled over – sea level. It has been reported recently that temperatures of the ocean surface have declined in the last four years. Not only that, sea levels have stopped rising in the last two years, as the graph below shows. This shows the global mean sea level level […]

Kevins ABC 6

A thought for April Fools Day. Seen on the whiteboard of a construction office. “Kevin’s ABC” Never Assume Never Believe Always Confirm