Monthly Archives: June 2008

IPCC Fraud Solutions 31

Concern is often expressed about the way the IPCC has been conducted, and I want to suggest a constructive solution. Recently, a climate scientist was critical of freedom of information inquiries reported at ClimateAudit, but made some points that help to illustrate the errors in the current state of thinking. Below is my solution, after […]

Introduction to Carbon Credits 21

The carbon credit scheme was set up to allow EU countries or companies that fail to meet designated emission reduction targets to avoid paying penalties by purchasing carbon credits. Carbon credits are issued on projects around the world that result in reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases. They are also a traded by brokers […]

Greenhouse Thermodynamics and GCMs 28

The recent state of knowledge of global warming report released by the IPCC claims to have direct evidence of the enhanced greenhouse effect (EGE) responsible for global warming. In Chapter 3 Section 3.4 p40 of WG1 they make claims (1) the available data do not indicate a detectable trend in upper-tropospheric relative humidity, and (2) […]

Greenhouse Thermodynamics of Water Vapor and the IPCC 41

Following on from the line of investigation started here, I examine the quality of evidence the IPCC presents for global warming due to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect. The summary for policy makers apparently sums up the current state of knowledge, referencing the relevant chapter section (3.4): The average atmospheric water vapour content has […]

Greenhouse Thermodynamics and Water Vapor 63

Anthony Watts has uncovered some data from the NOAA website that appears to show water vapor levels have been decreasing for the last sixty years. Strangely, a number of recent peer-reviewed publications claim that water vapor is increasing: Water Vapor Feedback is Rapidly Warming Europe Elevated surface temperatures due to other greenhouse gases have enhanced […]

Another Theory of Global Warming 15

Here I have started to explore a new theory of global warming, not from greenhouse gas buildup in the troposphere, but from changes in stratospheric temperature caused largely by ultra-Plinian (stratosphere reaching) eruptions. A brief article entitled A Stratospheric Compensation Model of Climate Change, is in the May 8 issue of Australian Institute of Geologists […]

Chaitén Eruption June 16

Heads up for a new volcanism blog by Erik Klemetti with a very succinct description of new developments with the ‘bad boy’ of Chile, Mt Chaitén. The newest reports out of Chile are indicating that the eruption at Chaiten has reached levels of intensity not seen since the eruption first started over six weeks ago. […]

Interpretation Bias 47

It is amazing how people’s view of the strength of evidence changes when it confirms their biases. Due to interpretation bias, one should approach bold statements with some skepticism. The social sciences tell us that interpretive bias will be found particularly in those sciences with particular societal interests, or a dominant ideology — such as […]

Bias Examples 13

Continuing a series on Evidence Based Practise (EBP) below are examples from sea level research of the biases mentioned previously from an interview with Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner. From wikipedia: Nils-Axel Mörner is the former head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University, having retired in 2005. He was president of the INQUA Commission […]

Bias in Research 18

Following the line of interest in the previous post on Evidence-based Practise, I came across a review of research into bias in clinical medical research by Lise Lotte Gluud summarizing the findings of methodological studies on the influence of bias in clinical trials. There are many learnings here that could be applied to climate and […]

Global Warming 8

Global warming is one of the most serious threats facing our global community today. It has been said that global warming may prove to be the first great example in the modern Western world, when science was betrayed by scientists themselves. The makers of the documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle have made many science […]

Evidence Based Practise 15

Writing on Prof. Garnauts Heinz Arndt Lecture, Peter Gallagher pens a sensible comment on the lack of attempt to strike a balanced risk assessment. Unlike the 1996 inaugural speech of Adrian Smith as President of the Royal Statistical Society, who held out evidence-based practices as an exemplar for all public policy, Prof Garnaut dismissed the […]

Global Warming Statistics: OET (ordinary eyeball test). 11

The ordinary eyeball test is a reliable and widely used form of data analysis, particularly in climate science. The basic approach is to plot data of a graph, use a highly complex and incompletely documented method to make it almost impossible to replicate, then visually present the desired results with a thick red line. Experience […]

Statistics of Global Warming: Sentiment Models 50

Abstract These empirical results suggest that overly pessimistic predictions of global warming precede large falls in global temperature. Thus, the level of alarmist sentiment has the potential to be a useful predictor of global temperatures. The rational null expectations hypothesis is tested against the alternative hypothesis that extremes of sentiment signal turning points in global […]