Concern is often expressed about the way the IPCC has been conducted, and I want to suggest a constructive solution. Recently, a climate scientist was critical of freedom of information inquiries reported at ClimateAudit, but made some points that help to illustrate the errors in the current state of thinking. Below is my solution, after extracting quotes from a couple of Michael Tobis' posts, made in a slightly different context.
Most established climatologists didnâ€™t seek controversy Read more [...] 22 com
The carbon credit scheme was set up to allow EU countries or companies that fail to meet designated emission reduction targets to avoid paying penalties by purchasing carbon credits. Carbon credits are issued on projects around the world that result in reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases. They are also a traded by brokers to facilitate exchange. For example the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) has become first exchange in Asia to trade carbon credits. India has apparently generated Read more [...] 7 com
The recent state of knowledge of global warming report released by the IPCC claims to have direct evidence of the enhanced greenhouse effect (EGE) responsible for global warming. In Chapter 3 Section 3.4 p40 of WG1 they make claims (1) the available data do not indicate a detectable trend in upper-tropospheric relative humidity, and (2) there is now evidence for global increases in upper-tropospheric specific humidity over the past two decades, which is consistent with the observed increases in Read more [...] 21 com
Following on from the line of investigation started here, I examine the quality of evidence the IPCC presents for global warming due to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect. The summary for policy makers apparently sums up the current state of knowledge, referencing the relevant chapter section (3.4):
The average atmospheric water vapour content has
increased since at least the 1980s over land and ocean
as well as in the upper troposphere. The increase is
broadly consistent with the extra water Read more [...] 30 com
Anthony Watts has
uncovered some data from the NOAA website that appears to show water vapor levels have been decreasing for the last sixty years.
Strangely, a number of recent peer-reviewed publications claim that water vapor is increasing:
Water Vapor Feedback is Rapidly Warming Europe
Elevated surface temperatures due to other greenhouse gases have enhanced water evaporation and contributed to a cycle that stimulates further surface temperature increases, according to a report in Geophysical Read more [...] 57 com
Here I have started to explore a new theory of global warming, not from greenhouse gas buildup in the troposphere, but from changes in stratospheric temperature caused largely by ultra-Plinian (stratosphere reaching) eruptions. A brief article entitled A Stratospheric Compensation Model of Climate Change, is in the May 8 issue of Australian Institute of Geologists Newsletter, pages 12-13.
The main lines of evidence presented for this theory are:
1. A correlation between the inverse of the global Read more [...] 9 com
Heads up for a new volcanism blog by Erik Klemetti with a very succinct description of new developments with the 'bad boy' of Chile, Mt ChaitÃ©n.
The newest reports out of Chile are indicating that the eruption at Chaiten has reached levels of intensity not seen since the eruption first started over six weeks ago. I have to admit, that isnâ€™t a good sign in terms of keeping the volcanic edifice in one piece. There have been frequent, small (m3) earthquakes along with â€œrumbling noises,â€ Read more [...] 10 com
It is amazing how people's view of the strength of evidence changes when it confirms their biases. Due to interpretation bias, one should approach bold statements with some skepticism. The social sciences tell us that interpretive bias will be found particularly in those sciences with particular societal interests, or a dominant ideology -- such as global warming.
In 2001 a team of UK-based scientists published evidence which they said proved unequivocally that global warming is real.
According Read more [...] 16 com
Continuing a series on Evidence Based Practise (EBP) below are examples from sea level research of the biases mentioned previously from an interview with Dr. Nils-Axel MÃ¶rner. From wikipedia:
Nils-Axel MÃ¶rner is the former head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University, having retired in 2005. He was president of the INQUA Commission on Neotectonics (1981-1989) and president of the INQUA (International Union for Quaternary Research) Commission on Sea Level Read more [...] 6 com
Following the line of interest in the previous post on Evidence-based Practise, I came across a review of research into bias in clinical medical research by Lise Lotte Gluud summarizing the findings of methodological studies on the influence of bias in clinical trials. There are many learnings here that could be applied to climate and environmental sciences in general.
It is recognized that uncontrolled observations can provide reliable evidence if the effects are dramatic. However, great care Read more [...] one
Global warming is one of the most serious threats facing our global community today. It has been said that global warming may prove to be the first great example in the modern Western world, when science was betrayed by scientists themselves. The makers of the documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle have made many science documentaries before. When they started to make this one, as many others before them have found, the case for man made global warming is weak, and the evidence contradictory.
The Read more [...] 4 com
Writing on Prof. Garnauts Heinz Arndt Lecture, Peter Gallagher pens a sensible comment on the lack of attempt to strike a balanced risk assessment. Unlike the 1996 inaugural speech of Adrian Smith as President of the Royal Statistical Society, who held out evidence-based practices as an exemplar for all public policy, Prof Garnaut dismissed the conflicting scientific evidence for global warming.
Evidence-Based Practice uses techniques from science, engineering, and statistics, such as meta-analysis Read more [...] 13 com
The ordinary eyeball test is a reliable and widely used form of data analysis, particularly in climate science. The basic approach is to plot data of a graph, use a highly complex and incompletely documented method to make it almost impossible to replicate, then visually present the desired results with a thick red line.
Experience has shown that the OET produces reliable results in almost every situation. Moreover, these results are very convincing. So convincing was the OET known as the Hockey Read more [...] one
These empirical results suggest that overly pessimistic predictions of global warming precede large falls in global temperature. Thus, the level of alarmist sentiment has the potential to be a useful predictor of global temperatures. The rational null expectations hypothesis is tested against the alternative hypothesis that extremes of sentiment signal turning points in global temperature.
Sentiment models are based on the idea that extreme sentiment levels signal turning points. Read more [...] 46 com