Niche Modeling

Concern is often expressed about the way the IPCC has been conducted, and I want to suggest a constructive solution. Recently, a climate scientist was critical of freedom of information inquiries reported at ClimateAudit, but made some points that help to illustrate the errors in the current state of thinking. Below is my solution, [...]

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The carbon credit scheme was set up to allow EU countries or companies that fail to meet designated emission reduction targets to avoid paying penalties by purchasing carbon credits. Carbon credits are issued on projects around the world that result in reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases. They are also a traded by [...]

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The recent state of knowledge of global warming report released by the IPCC claims to have direct evidence of the enhanced greenhouse effect (EGE) responsible for global warming. In Chapter 3 Section 3.4 p40 of WG1 they make claims (1) the available data do not indicate a detectable trend in upper-tropospheric relative humidity, and [...]

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Following on from the line of investigation started here, I examine the quality of evidence the IPCC presents for global warming due to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect. The summary for policy makers apparently sums up the current state of knowledge, referencing the relevant chapter section (3.4):

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Anthony Watts has
uncovered some data from the NOAA website that appears to show water vapor levels have been decreasing for the last sixty years.

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Here I have started to explore a new theory of global warming, not from greenhouse gas buildup in the troposphere, but from changes in stratospheric temperature caused largely by ultra-Plinian (stratosphere reaching) eruptions. A brief article entitled A Stratospheric Compensation Model of Climate Change, is in the May 8 issue of Australian Institute of [...]

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Heads up for a new volcanism blog by Erik Klemetti with a very succinct description of new developments with the ‘bad boy’ of Chile, Mt Chaitén.

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It is amazing how people’s view of the strength of evidence changes when it confirms their biases. Due to interpretation bias, one should approach bold statements with some skepticism. The social sciences tell us that interpretive bias will be found particularly in those sciences with particular societal interests, or a dominant ideology — [...]

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Continuing a series on Evidence Based Practise (EBP) below are examples from sea level research of the biases mentioned previously from an interview with Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner. From wikipedia:

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Following the line of interest in the previous post on Evidence-based Practise, I came across a review of research into bias in clinical medical research by Lise Lotte Gluud summarizing the findings of methodological studies on the influence of bias in clinical trials. There are many learnings here that could be applied to climate [...]

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Global warming is one of the most serious threats facing our global community today. It has been said that global warming may prove to be the first great example in the modern Western world, when science was betrayed by scientists themselves. The makers of the documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle have made [...]

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Writing on Prof. Garnauts Heinz Arndt Lecture, Peter Gallagher pens a sensible comment on the lack of attempt to strike a balanced risk assessment. Unlike the 1996 inaugural speech of Adrian Smith as President of the Royal Statistical Society, who held out evidence-based practices as an exemplar for all public policy, Prof Garnaut dismissed the [...]

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The ordinary eyeball test is a reliable and widely used form of data analysis, particularly in climate science. The basic approach is to plot data of a graph, use a highly complex and incompletely documented method to make it almost impossible to replicate, then visually present the desired results with a thick red line.

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Abstract
These empirical results suggest that overly pessimistic predictions of global warming precede large falls in global temperature. Thus, the level of alarmist sentiment has the potential to be a useful predictor of global temperatures. The rational null expectations hypothesis is tested against the alternative hypothesis that extremes of sentiment signal turning points in global temperature.

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This graph needs little comment as it is evident from the data fresh in from the University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) Microwave Sounder Unit for the lower troposphere where global temperatures are headed. As in this post in March, I have plotted both northern (red) and southern (blue) hemisphere temperatures, along with the global [...]

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