Here is a treat for those following the discussion of Miskolczi's new theory of greenhouse warming. Noor van Andel has sent a simplified explanation of Miskolczi's theory, put on Wikichecks here. Noor is actually in the greenhouse business! Noor's letter below refers to a history of the debate between Noor and another prominent scientist in the Netherlands Dr. Rob van Dorland. Rob has also graciously responded with explanations of the Cabauw data he collected, and a link to his thesis, in the Read more [...] 77 com

Is Kirchhoff's rule in atmosphere proven by the Cabauw measurements, or not? I had earlier received a note on calculations by Noor van Andel claiming, yes, Kirchoff's relationship as used in Miskolczi's theory was confirmed by the linear regression of Ed (longwave down radiation) and Su(1-Ta) (longwave surface up, without transmitted longwave). Miskolczi also confirmed this result, using older results in a the previous post in this series. However, I just received an email from Rob van Dorland Read more [...] 25 com

The venue for more formal debate on controversial topics is the scientific journals. As part of my trek into the desert of drought predictions in Australia, I submitted a review of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances report (abstract below) two days ago to the Australian Meteorological Magazine. To date I have not received an acknowledgement of its receipt. The reasons I selected the AMM: it publishes all its papers on the web, has emphasis on the meteorology of the Australian region and the Read more [...] 2 com

While contributors Barton, Jan, Neal and Nick have been grilling Ferenc Miskolczi on another thread, and been doing a fantastic job of clarifying for average readers the use of the Virial Theorem in Miskolczi's paper, Ferenc has sent some results pertaining to the use of Kirchhoff's Law, which was another source of contention. I don't have a lot of time to go through this right away, so I will just post the links for now. It includes a scan of a paper from 1992 dealing with estimation of long wave Read more [...] 10 com

Changes in the exceptionally dry years (droughts) have been estimated in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) in two ways: (a) a statistical modification of the observed rainfall data (Box 3); and (b) analysis of simulations from 13 climate models. Up until now I have been looking at the modeling in approach (b). Today I started to look at approach (a). As mean rainfall declines the probability of exceptionally low rainfall increases. This is graphed in Box 3 (see also Table 6). The Read more [...] none

Any claims or representations made by a business must be accurate and truthful. If a business has been dishonest, exaggerated the truth, or created a misleading impression, then there is a very broad provision in the Trade Practices Act to prohibit such conduct by a corporation. For example, the ACCC webpage on misleading and deceptive conduct gives an example of a business predicting the health benefits of a therapeutic device or health product but having no proof that such benefits can be attained. Read more [...] 21 com

Stewart Franks, a hydroclimatologist at the University of Newcastle School of Engineering has spoken out, that the Murray Darling Basin drought was caused by an entirely natural phenomenon, the 2002 El Nino event, and there is no evidence that CO2 has had any significant role. He goes on: Numerous politicians, environmentalists and especially scientists have made spectacular leaps of faith in their adherence to the doctrine of climate change over recent years, too many to document here. And in Read more [...] 190 com

Below my reply to the letter here from Andrew Ash, Director of the Climate Adaptation Flagship. Concerning the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) there was an earlier more technical draft that could have contained validation information, but was returned by the client (DAFF) because it was unsuitable for stakeholder policy work. What does that mean? The earlier report should show what/if validation was performed to determine if the models had skill at predicting drought, and what Read more [...] 18 com

Below is the reply received from Andrew Ash, Director of the Climate Adaptation Flagship, to my letter to CSIRO here, concerning the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR). There are a number of unsubstantiated statements here (as in the DECR), to which I reply in another letter. Is the reliance on climate models with no predictive value in the DECR so narrow as not to affect the conclusions? Note also the desire to 'move on'. Tue, Sep 9, 2008 at 1:32 PM subject Drought Exceptional Circumstances Read more [...] 30 com

Here is an email from Hennessy about the CSIRO/BoM Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report. He raises some classic chestnuts that are easily dispatched: date Mon, Aug 25, 2008 at 9:26 AM subject RE: climate model evaluation mailed-by csiro.au signed-by csiro.au Thanks David. We are not withdrawing the DEC report because we are satisfied with the model evaluation done prior to publication. Bill Venables was engaged to help with understanding what you've done, not what we've done. Note that we Read more [...] none

In my quest to verify that an increase in droughts is likely, as claimed in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report, I have spent a few weeks corresponding with Kevin Hennessy the lead author. Despite more than one request, he has not provided technical information, reports, or any evidence to support the claims made in the report. Providing evidence in support of claims is fundamental to science, which is why I am so amazed that CSIRO has not responded abundantly with proof of their confident Read more [...] one

How many narcissists does it take to change a light bulb? Just one -- but he has to wait for the whole world to revolve around him. Blog watchers would have noticed a post at ClimateAudit where Steve has reprinted a comment by Ian Jolliffe on the form of PCA (decentered) used way back in 1998 by Mann et al. in the original hockey stick papers. (If you don't understand all that you have some background reading at CA for homework.) In a numerate science, statistical methods are standard, commonly Read more [...] 14 com

The short history of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) raises concerns about the relationship between government policy and climate change research. The Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told ABC1’s Insiders the report paints a very disturbing picture about the future of droughts in Australia: “Exceptional circumstances drought conditions ... will occur twice as often and with twice the area of droughted parts of Australia included. Now this is a serious revision Read more [...] 32 com

OK, here are the solutions I received to the home work quiz. Thanks to Alan D. McIntire, Peter Gallagher, Jan Pompe, BobD and Josh for contributions. 1: (1+1+1)!=6 1*1*1 = 6^0 1 x 1 x 1 = ∞√6 11|4 + 1 = 6 where the 4 is a subscript indicating “base 4″ 1×1+1 = φ(6) 2: (2*2) - 2 = 6 2 + 2 + 2 = 6 3: (3*3) - 3 = 6 φ(3+3+3) =6 4: 4^(1/2) + 4^(1/2) + 4^(1/2) = 6 4 + 4 - 4^(1/2) = 6 5: (5/5) + 5 = 6 5 + 5 / 5 = 6 6: 6+6-6=6 6 - 6 + 6 = 6 φ(6+6+6) =6 7: 7 - (7/7) Read more [...] 10 com

I give you 3 digits and a result and you must put all the signs necessary to restore the equality.

I’ll give you an example. The remainder you solve by yourself.

2 + 2 + 2 = 6

Easy isn’t this? It’s the same for the remainder.

Read the rest of this entry…

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