Monthly Archives: October 2008


Risky Statistical Prediction Methods 18

A couple of days ago, Luke, a frequent commenter, sent in a number of links to a new Australian Government drought initiative. The Minister Tony Burke has appointed an Expert Panel to examine the social impacts of drought as part of its national review of exceptional circumstances (EC) funding, which argues for a major change, […]


Significance of Global Warming 116

Comment by Ken Gregory moved from Greenhouse Heat Engine. Last month I asked Ferenc Miskolczi to calculate a 60 year trend of optical depths using radiosonde data I compiled from the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory to confirm his prediction of constant optical depth. We finally got the results:


Linear Regression R Squared 43

One of the tests of climate models predicting drought in my review of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report was the correlation of predicted area under drought with actual observed area under drought. Lazar criticized my inclusion of the R-Squared (r2) coefficient, an issue I didn’t follow up at the time. … correlating model predictions for […]


CSIRO Progress in Science Law 5

Geoff Sherrington has been drawing attention to some changes in the legal language attached to various emails and reports associated with the CSIRO and the Climate Adaptation Flagship (CAF). Since I have been posting up emails in an attempt to hold people accountable, I have been looking into the legality. In the case of reports, […]


Theory of the Bailout 8

Sinfest has captured the essence of the bailout in comic form. What brave new theory permits contradictory gems like: The US Government is to spend up to $250 billion buying direct stakes in banks and other financial institutions under a controversial emergency plan which President Bush insisted today was “not intended to take over the […]


Climate Adaptation Flagship Update 21

Below is the email received a month ago from Dr Andrew Ash, Director of the Climate Adaptation Flagship, promising a formal response to issues raised about the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) concerning no apparent attempt at validation of the climate models for drought in the report, or evidence of skill at modeling drought. No […]


In the News 26

Support was expressed for our efforts with the DECR from a reader of the Sydney Morning Herald below. Letters to the Editor, Sydney Morning Herald – 4 Oct 2008 Meanwhile, the Department of Climate Change is hiring in a big way! Need I say you could get a lot of economically productive research done in […]


The Limits of Confidence in Theory 8

The end of an era is an accurate description of a process that theories go through in dismantling the structure of the world we know in order to replace it with another way of understanding the world around them. Worthless Guarantees and Printing Presses Yesterday in Fannie, Freddie Commit to Waste $40 Billion a Month […]


Rahmstorf Revisited 7

The sharp-eyed UC who keeps a good technical blog on signal theory alerted me to this intelligent reference in the Finnish media to Rahmstorf et al. 2007. This is a paper I have reviewed previously and had words with Stefan at RealClimate demonstrating they had grossly underestimated the uncertainty at the end points. This flawed […]


Comments on the Role of Theory 18

I have avoided posting on the financial crisis until now, not wanting to add more negativity to the bail-out proposals, however now it is clear it’s not preventing asset declines, I feel OK to use it as a jumping off point for a theoretical discussion on the role of theory. Theory has an uneasy relationship […]


Creating a Statistical Model with a Cherry-picking Process 73

Steve McIntyre, always gracious in his acknowledgments, mentioned my note in the Australian Institute of Geologists newsletter (AIG News No 83 Mar 2006 pp14) in a post yesterday “The Full Network“. We’ve discussed on many occasions that you can “get” a HS merely from picking upward-trending series from networks of red noise (David Stockwell had […]


Fishery Predictions of Global Warming 14

“Climate change could devastate fishing industry: CSIRO” shouts the ABC news, as scientists predict the salmon, rock lobster and abalone industries, barramundi, prawn and mudcrab fisheries will be affected by changing rainfall patterns. In a welcome trend, the fishing industry have questioned the climate findings in the CSIRO report. Industry representatives see the report contributing […]