Monthly Archives: January 2009

Simple multi-layer greenhouse 25

Here are the results of my simple multi-layer greenhouse experiment, conducted in December when the weather was hot and stable, not mild and rainy as it is now. The experimental setup is shown below, with two laboratory thermometers, and a mercury one to check. One sensor was attached to a 6in black tile sitting on […]

Fedoras back in style 45

My forecast for the economy – back to the 50’s. Barrick’s Munk coy on gold at Davos. Atlas Shrugged Movie with Angela Jolie? Search research tool from Google. Davos Delegates in ‘Denial’ as $25 Trillion of Wealth Vanishes – More fedoras at Davos.

Theon eviscerates climate warming community 26

This is not the sort of news I usually pick up on, but I quote below the retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist Dr. John S. Theon, and former supervisor of James Hansen, both because of the relevance to modelling practise, and because he captures so exactly what has driven me out of science over the […]

New tests and enhancements to WikiChecks 8

I have tweaked the interface of WikiChecks and added some new analysis. It will take a range of analysis before I get a good enough sample, but already there is an amazing degree of insight coming out of this technique. Below is a list of some of the new additions, and whether the last digit […]

Simple Greenhouse Proofs 412

A reported increase in the longwave downward radiation in the Swiss Alps, proves the ‘‘theory’’ of greenhouse warming with direct radiation observations according to this paper, “Radiative forcing – measured at Earth’s surface – corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect”, by Rolf Philipona, Bruno Durr, Christoph Marty, Atsumu Ohmura and Martin Wild. Supposed direct observational proofs […]

Hansen's Regression to Zero 80

While reading Hansen’s latest mailout I came upon an intriguing reference that I followed up. I suspect this paper is as important as Douglass et al. in describing an important way the models do not agree with the observations. It may be more important, in redefining the role of the Sun in recent warming. His […]

Global Temperature Graphs 19

The next step in the statistical forensics process is to breakdown the data in ways that reveal where the anomolous divergences are coming from. Here I am indulging in classical scientific reduction methodology by examining overall phenomena in terms of the sum of its parts. The previous post in the series identified significant divergence in […]

UBS returns show significant management 31

Cross posted at WikiChecks. I pasted in monthly data from the Swiss bank UBS and found significant management. The file used was this. The digit frequency shows an excess of zeros and ones and a deficiency of 7s and 8s. One possible explanation is that figures slightly below a whole number have been boosted to […]

Announce: New fraud detection website 37

Detecting ‘massaging’ of data by human hands is an area of statistical analysis I have been working on for some time, and devoted one chapter of my book, Niche Modeling, to its application to environmental data sets. The WikiChecks web site now incorporates a script for doing a Benford’s analysis of digit frequency, sometimes used […]

Dr Roy Spencer's new blog 43

Dr Roy Spencer has a new blog. His latest post describes a study demonstrating another possible negative feedback produced by clouds. Of more interest to me, he exposes the bias in the academic publication system, due to no explicit mention of the possible relevance of this negative feedback to moderating warming in climate models. Simply, […]

Markopolos, Dan diBartolomeo, and Koppel vs. Madoff 30

Another way to predict — lie about your success rate. Mathematical analysis in 1999 showed Madoff’s returns were impossible and repeated warnings went unheeded. Competitor Markopolos complained to the SEC’s Boston office in May 1999, saying it was impossible for the kind of profit Madoff was reporting to have been gained legally. Markopolos reached his […]

Help, its raining swans! 9

Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan”; gives us another example of how to predict. His strategy is to predict eventualities that are possible only remotely, yet are highly consequential. This is also called the Chicken Little Strategy – ‘the sky is falling’. Like global warming. Models and agents argues this approach (like anthropogenic global […]

NASA Hathaway slides the goalposts 35

Prediction is dangerous to your reputation. If you don’t make a clear prediction (a climate cycle, a solar cycle, a financial trend…) then you are just doing your best. What comes does not damage your reputation. One way to predict is to reproject on a regular basis, called ‘moving the goalposts’. David Hathaway of NASA […]

AIMS GBR coral findings merely opinion 15

Jennifer Marohasy concurs that the AIMS GBR study presents level 5 evidence (merely expert opinion) that measured decline in coral growth is due to anthropogenic global warming. Indeed no data is presented to suggest the PH (a measure of acidity) of GBR waters has changed. Confronted with a lack of evidence in support of this […]

GBR Coral Growth Study from AIMS 28

This newly released study from the Australian Institute of Marine Science in Townsville is getting a lot of press. An interview with the author Glen De’ath by the ABC claims a tipping point for coral growth has already been reached in 1990. claims the growth of coral in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef has slowed […]