Nir's 2005 paper "On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget", available as pdf here, provides a solid case linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change. The effect is consistent over hugely different timescales, using completely different indicators -- from cosmic sources of CRF at the Phanerozoic, to the shortest time scale of the 11-yr solar cycle. The fit is extraordinary. The statistics competent. The bottom line? Thus, anthropogenic Read more [...] 28 com

The theory of this Israeli astrophysicist has gained traction as the great white hope of climate skeptics. Below are some sources of background reading. Shaviv champions the solar-wind modulated cosmic ray flux (CRF) hypothesis, which was suggested by Ney, discussed by Dickenson, and furthered by Svensmark (see CO2 Science). Evidence consistes of correlations between CRF variations and cloud cover, correlations between non-solar CRF variations and temperature over geological timescales, as well Read more [...] 28 com

Dr Roy Spencer, has weighted in on Dessler et al 2008. Water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations, 2003-2008, Whereas Dessler closes his paper firmly in the climate liberal camp. [23] The existence of a strong and positive water-vapor feedback means that projected business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions over the next century are virtually guaranteed to produce warming of several degrees Celsius. The only way that will not happen is if a strong, negative, and currently unknown Read more [...] 11 com

Ronald Reagan was born on the 6th of February 1911. If ever we were in need of wisdom from the man who changed the free world, its now. Below are some of my favorite Reagan quotes, relating to some of the madness going on around us. Soros Says Crisis Marks End of Free-Market Model That Started Under Reagan Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it. Obama Plans to Reduce Read more [...] 20 com

The following is an approximate propagation of uncertainty through Dessler et als. equation for estimating the strength of water vapor feedback λ. We have been looking at the error-bars in his recent paper Water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations, 2003-2008, not calculated in the published paper. Assumptions made are noted. Refer to wiki for propagation of error equations. Here R is the top of atmosphere IR, q is the specific humidity and T is the temperature. 1. Read more [...] 19 com

A concerned reader sent me this recent paper Water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations, 2003-2008, writing: The following (ala Hansen) IMO should never have been accepted in a "peer reviewed" journal. "The existence of a strong and positive water-vapor feedback means that projected business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions over the next century are virtually guaranteed to produce warming of several degrees Celsius. The only way that will not happen is if a strong, Read more [...] 53 com

The Google Reader tool is quite the step forward in productivity. Here are some of its most productive features. Subscribe: to blogs, and create a single goto place to read blogs in a consistent format. Quickly scanning the blog posts in plain text is easier and quicker, as there are no ads or popups that get loaded if you go to the main website. All Items: For someone like me who scans upwards of 20 blogs a day, the All Items tag lists all new posts from all subscribed blogs. You know which Read more [...] none

Detecting bias in research is not so difficult when you know what to look for. The conclusions are not justified by the data. Instead, the data may confirm, be consistent with, (or not inconsistent with) the conclusions. Working against this however are basic human motives on the part of the writer, to find novel and interesting approaches, find significant results when nothing is there, to be accepted by their colleagues, to get grants and be published. According to Geoffrey Miller (The Mating Read more [...] 4 com

While Prof. David Karoly's guest post at RealClimate is admirably nuanced, he has graciously left some low-hanging fruit to take the stick to. He states: 1. Increases of mean temperature and mean maximum temperature in Australia have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, as reported in the IPCC Fourth Assessment. In a comment at ClimateAudit, Ian Castles remarked on a a similar temperature phenomenon attributed to David Karoly, but mysteriously dissapearing from the AR4: As long ago Read more [...] 58 com

Ian Castles organized a review of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report by two Accredited Statisticians, who also review my first report on the skill of the climate models. The statisticians find inadequate validation of the models of drought, as well as suboptimal regionalization in the DECR. They also find my analysis lacked force, and so I have done additional analysis in line with their suggestions. The last few posts in the series have consisted of reviews of an unsuccessful submission Read more [...] none

David R.B. Stockwell February 4, 2009 Abstract A review by independent Accredited Statisticians, Brewer and Other [KB09], suggested that some claims in the report “Tests of Regional Climate Model Validity in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report” [DS08] were premature. Additional tests suggested by KB09 support the claim made in the original report of “no credible basis for the claims of increasing frequency of Exceptional Circumstances declarations”. The contributions Read more [...] one

K.R.W. Brewer1 and A.N. Other1 28 January, 2009 1. K.R.W. Brewer is an Accredited Statistician of the Statistical Society of Australia Inc. (SSAI) and a long term Visiting Fellow at the School of Finance and Applied Statistics within the College of Business and Economics at the Australian National University. 2. A.N. Other is a pseudonym for another Accredited Statistician of the SSAI who prefers to remain anonymous. Full responsibility for the content is taken by K.R.W. Brewer. Abstract The Read more [...] 7 com

Here we go again. FBI sweeps into cricket boss Sir Allen Stanford’s bank. Agents are examining the Antigua-based Stanford International Bank (SIB), which has paid investors returns twice as large as conventional banks, after former employees said they witnessed “unethical and illegal practices”. Learn to look for the numbers. When you see unusually high returns, you need to disbelieve them immediately. When you see extrordinary claims in science, such as high values of significance, Read more [...] none

Below are Peter Gallagher's thoughts on the reviews of the submission to AMM. Contrast this with ac's impressions that "To my reading the reviewer’s criticisms are reasonable and pertinent." It goes to show, that reasonable and unrelated people can see things in different ways. Where is the resolvability of fact in the review process? Consensus? Hi David, Thanks for sending me these papers. Reading the reviews, it seems to me that your submission has been poorly understood by the Read more [...] none

Mish reports on a massive secret audit of the major US banks. He raises some interesting questions, relevant to auditing and secrecy, and both in finance and in science. Nearly 100 federal banking regulators descended on Citigroup in New York on Wednesday morning. Dozens more fanned out through Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and other big banks across the nation. There is no transparency and there are no details. Is this supposed to inspire confidence? How can there possibly be any trust in Read more [...] 5 com

The Financial Times recently reported on the Australian bushfires, linking them to increases in greenhouse gases. We take another look at the data in the DECR and find Australia is getting wetter not drier: Scientists say Australia, with its harsh environment, is set to be one of the nations most affected by climate change. “Continued increases in greenhouse gases will lead to further warming and drier conditions in southern Australia, so the [fire] risks are likely to slightly worsen,” Read more [...] 16 com

Country firefighter shares a drink with a traumatized Koala.
Read the rest of this entry…

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Peter Gallagher reports that even while the coals are still warm, some are already blaming the Victorian fires on increases in greenhouse gases. The following summarizes indications of decline in droughts in Australia from 1900 to the present, compiled from data provided with the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report. Some of this information was provided in the submission the the Australian Meteorological Magazine (more about this tomorrow). Drought is defined as the percentage of area with Read more [...] 6 com

A number of familiar tests, often used to evaluate the performance of models: R2 correlation, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and similarity of trends and return period, were reported here, noting not much evidence of skill in the DECR models compared with observations at any of these. I also said what a better treatment might entail but left that for another time: The percentage of droughted area appears to be a ’bounded extreme value, peaks over threshold’ or bounded POT statistic. The Read more [...] one

Posts over the next few weeks will be updates on the status of reviews myself and others have initiated of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR), by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). It is prudent to subject your views to the rigors of peer review. It is the way to knowledge to search out feedback. So I thought why not share the opportunity with others, so can avail themselves of the wisdom of the leading experts, to learn and formulate their own opinion, not only about Read more [...] 12 com

In the last episode, retired NASA Atmospheric Scientist John S. Theon, who claimed to be one of Hansen’s former supervisors, declared himself a skeptic and said Hansen had “embarrassed NASA.” Left leaning blogs cried foul. This week, James Hansen says he doesn't recall Theon, and John Theon responds that Hansen is losing his memory. From CO2skeptic. Hansen’s reportedly responded to Theon via email to M.J. Murphy of BigCityLib blog and wrote the following on February 5, Read more [...] 24 com

Some stories these days send shivers down my spine, over the sheer magnitude of the changes going on in world finance. King Among Clowns is packed with great quotes, about the Congressional testimony of a unlikely anti-hero, with an unlikely name, Harry Markopolos. He ran the numbers. They didn't fit. He spoke out. See the pillars of power tremble at his words. Read more [...] 2 com