Monthly Archives: February 2009

Shaviv and Miskolczi 36

Nir’s 2005 paper “On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget”, available as pdf here, provides a solid case linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change. The effect is consistent over hugely different timescales, using completely different indicators — from cosmic sources of CRF at the Phanerozoic, […]

Nir Shaviv 40

The theory of this Israeli astrophysicist has gained traction as the great white hope of climate skeptics. Below are some sources of background reading. Shaviv champions the solar-wind modulated cosmic ray flux (CRF) hypothesis, which was suggested by Ney, discussed by Dickenson, and furthered by Svensmark (see CO2 Science). Evidence consistes of correlations between CRF […]

And now, the rest of the story. 18

Dr Roy Spencer, has weighted in on Dessler et al 2008. Water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations, 2003-2008, Whereas Dessler closes his paper firmly in the climate liberal camp. [23] The existence of a strong and positive water-vapor feedback means that projected business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions over the next century are virtually guaranteed to […]

Ronald Reagan's Birthday 26

Ronald Reagan was born on the 6th of February 1911. If ever we were in need of wisdom from the man who changed the free world, its now. Below are some of my favorite Reagan quotes, relating to some of the madness going on around us. Soros Says Crisis Marks End of Free-Market Model That […]

Propagation of Uncertainty through Dessler 27

The following is an approximate propagation of uncertainty through Dessler et als. equation for estimating the strength of water vapor feedback λ. We have been looking at the error-bars in his recent paper Water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations, 2003-2008, not calculated in the published paper. Assumptions made are noted. Refer to wiki for […]

Dessler, Zhang and Yang fail significance tests 56

A concerned reader sent me this recent paper Water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations, 2003-2008, writing: The following (ala Hansen) IMO should never have been accepted in a "peer reviewed" journal. "The existence of a strong and positive water-vapor feedback means that projected business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions over the next century are virtually guaranteed […]

Productivity of Google Reader 11

The Google Reader tool is quite the step forward in productivity. Here are some of its most productive features. Subscribe: to blogs, and create a single goto place to read blogs in a consistent format. Quickly scanning the blog posts in plain text is easier and quicker, as there are no ads or popups that […]

Biased Research Studies 16

Detecting bias in research is not so difficult when you know what to look for. The conclusions are not justified by the data. Instead, the data may confirm, be consistent with, (or not inconsistent with) the conclusions. Working against this however are basic human motives on the part of the writer, to find novel and […]

David Karoly 89

While Prof. David Karoly’s guest post at RealClimate is admirably nuanced, he has graciously left some low-hanging fruit to take the stick to. He states: 1. Increases of mean temperature and mean maximum temperature in Australia have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, as reported in the IPCC Fourth Assessment. In a comment at ClimateAudit, […]

Drought Exceptional Circumstances 3

Ian Castles organized a review of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report by two Accredited Statisticians, who also review my first report on the skill of the climate models. The statisticians find inadequate validation of the models of drought, as well as suboptimal regionalization in the DECR. They also find my analysis lacked force, and so […]

Validation of Climate Effect Models: Response to Brewer and Other 7

David R.B. Stockwell February 4, 2009 Abstract A review by independent Accredited Statisticians, Brewer and Other [KB09], suggested that some claims in the report “Tests of Regional Climate Model Validity in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report” [DS08] were premature. Additional tests suggested by KB09 support the claim made in the original report of “no credible […]

Some comments on the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) and on Dr David Stockwell’s critique of it 8

K.R.W. Brewer1 and A.N. Other1 28 January, 2009 1. K.R.W. Brewer is an Accredited Statistician of the Statistical Society of Australia Inc. (SSAI) and a long term Visiting Fellow at the School of Finance and Applied Statistics within the College of Business and Economics at the Australian National University. 2. A.N. Other is a pseudonym […]

Just Not Cricket 3

Here we go again. FBI sweeps into cricket boss Sir Allen Stanford’s bank. Agents are examining the Antigua-based Stanford International Bank (SIB), which has paid investors returns twice as large as conventional banks, after former employees said they witnessed “unethical and illegal practices”. Learn to look for the numbers. When you see unusually high returns, […]

Letters 8

Below are Peter Gallagher’s thoughts on the reviews of the submission to AMM. Contrast this with ac’s impressions that “To my reading the reviewer’s criticisms are reasonable and pertinent.” It goes to show, that reasonable and unrelated people can see things in different ways. Where is the resolvability of fact in the review process? Consensus? […]

Audits and transparency 11

Mish reports on a massive secret audit of the major US banks. He raises some interesting questions, relevant to auditing and secrecy, and both in finance and in science. Nearly 100 federal banking regulators descended on Citigroup in New York on Wednesday morning. Dozens more fanned out through Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and other […]

Do increases in greenhouse gases cause droughts in Australia? 16

Peter Gallagher reports that even while the coals are still warm, some are already blaming the Victorian fires on increases in greenhouse gases. The following summarizes indications of decline in droughts in Australia from 1900 to the present, compiled from data provided with the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report. Some of this information was provided in […]

Climate Flagship Response 3

A number of familiar tests, often used to evaluate the performance of models: R2 correlation, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and similarity of trends and return period, were reported here, noting not much evidence of skill in the DECR models compared with observations at any of these. I also said what a better treatment might entail but left […]

DECR Review Series 19

Posts over the next few weeks will be updates on the status of reviews myself and others have initiated of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR), by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). It is prudent to subject your views to the rigors of peer review. It is the way to knowledge to search […]

John Theon 57

In the last episode, retired NASA Atmospheric Scientist John S. Theon, who claimed to be one of Hansen’s former supervisors, declared himself a skeptic and said Hansen had “embarrassed NASA.” Left leaning blogs cried foul. This week, James Hansen says he doesn’t recall Theon, and John Theon responds that Hansen is losing his memory. From […]

The Dark Side of the Street 12

Some stories these days send shivers down my spine, over the sheer magnitude of the changes going on in world finance. King Among Clowns is packed with great quotes, about the Congressional testimony of a unlikely anti-hero, with an unlikely name, Harry Markopolos. He ran the numbers. They didn’t fit. He spoke out. See the […]