Edward Vul, Christine Harris, Piotr Winkielman, & Harold Pashler have published research that provides useful insights into the practice of ‘cherry picking’ or prior selection of desirable results leading to exaggerated significance. They also demonstrates the effect in a comprehensive survey of studies in the field of social neuroscience.
CommentsIts the time of the month for the competition to guess the change in global temperatures for the previous month. Currently Jan Pompe is leading. Luck or insight? Time will tell.
Results from RSS normally are released on the 5th of the month. Voting is now open for March. Place your vote below. All with at least one correct guess will be listed.
Update: RSS is out, and down.
Jeremy Clarkson on the reaction to his review of the Tesla Roadster.
CommentsThe rumbling Alaskan volcano Redoubt has exploded producing a stratosphere-reaching plume in excess of 60,000 ft (17 km). An eruption is termed ‘ultraplinian’ if its ejecta reaches the stratosphere, about 10km in height. Dust and gases in the stratosphere are known to depress the global temperature for up to a few years after the eruption. The extent of cooling depends on the amount and type of material, the size and duration of ultraplinian eruption, and the latitude (high latitude eruptions like Redoubt are less effective than lower ones).
The plume could be seen easily on infrared here (top center of first radar).
Transcript of the introduction of talk by Nir Shaviv, skeptical Astrophysicist, at the 2009 Heartland Conference entitled: New solar climate links and their implications to our understanding of climate change (listen to audio).
In the introduction, Nir explains the concept of climate sensitivity very clearly. After this, one can understand the origin of such claims as ‘if the hockey stick is wrong, then sensitivity is higher than we thought and global warming will be worse’.
OK I am glad to see the number of people who have evaporated is not very large in this last 5 min break.
To answer a question that was asked before I think one of the problems with the models, first of all with respect to feedback, it is cloud cover. That because you cannot resolve very small scales the cloud cover physics is basically parameterized with a recipe, and because its parameterized with a recipe, whichever recipe you decide to use, whatever you cook depends on the recipe that you use.
Alan Cheetham drew my attention to a post on his blog, showing the close relationship between geomagnetic field strength, and rate of temperature change (warming in the N Hemisphere and cooling in the S Hemisphere). The idea is that the the effect of cosmic rays on the Earth’s temperature by seeding low clouds, will be most apparent where the magnetic field is weakest. Maps of the geomagnetic field show an uncanny correlation with ‘recent warming’ (UAH 1978-2006):
This is a brilliant riff on the financial crisis and how it got to where it is today.
CommentsProbably the last in this series on cosmic rays and recent warming, we look at two recent papers on the position of the geomagnetic field and recent climate, most likely mediated by changes in cosmic ray flux.
Regional cosmic ray induced ionization and geomagnetic field changes by Kovaltsov and Usoskin examines regional effects on atmospheric ionization of the migration of the geomagnetic dipole axis over the last thousand years. The dipole migrated by 20 deg. of latitude and 180 deg. of longitude during the last 1000 years. This trajectory is compared with the cosmic ray flux (CRF) reconstructed from the cosmogenic isotope 14C from tree rings.
They present a picture of climate effects for two regions, Europe and the Far East. The variations for Europe show the familiar profile (inverted) of a Medieval Warm Period, a Little Ice Age and general warming over the last 200 years to the present. The picture for the Far East is for generally increasing warmth from about 1200 to the present.
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Here is a roundup on the current IPCC thinking on cosmic rays and recent warming.
IPCC and Solar Correlations from ClimateAudit reviews the dismissal of a solar influence on climate in IPCC 1992, 1994 and 2001.
CommentsIs attribution of recent warming 20:80 solar to GHG’s, or the other way around? This is a quantitative question, and I would like to get some discussion going on this issue of the relative proportions of factors involved in recent warming, but I realize you can’t just turn discussion on. Personally, I feel like a goose that I wasn’t converted to the CRF theory earlier, as I am blown away by the strength of the evidence. But others may feel differently, and I like to test my faith.
The delightfully modestly titled The possible connection between ionization in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and low level clouds by Pallé, E. Butler, C. J. and O’Brien, K.(2004) modeled atmospheric ionization to calculate the climatic impact of cosmic ray flux (CRF) over the last 150 years, based on the correlation with observed low cloud cover.
While the IPCC attribute most if not all warming in the last 30 years to GHG’s, until the recent IPCC report, the AR4, most warming this century was also attributed to GHG’s. Pallé shows the possible temperature contributions of solar and CRF.
CommentsThe main weapon of the greenhouse gassers over the source of ‘recent’ warming in the last 30 years has been the claim that cosmic ray counts appear to be relatively trendless over the last 30 years (apart for solar cycle variability), and therefore cannot responsible for recent warming, supposedly putting the theory prominently associated with Henrik Svensmark under pressure.
For example, the lack of evidence of a downward trend in cosmic rays has been a recurring theme at realclimate, which they regard as one major weakness of Svensmark’s argument that GCR is responsible for recent warming.
I thought I would do a brief review of the evidence and found a number of reliable sources indicating that neutron fluxes have indeed been declining.
CommentsSteve Short sent me this curious paper. Cosmic rays, cloud condensation nuclei and clouds – a reassessment using MODIS data by J. E. Kristjansson, C. W. Stjern, F. Stordal, A. M. Fjæraa, G. Myhre, and K. Jonasson. They looked at the response of clouds to sudden decreases in the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) – Forbush decrease events using cloud products from the space-borne MODIS instrument, which has been in operation since 2000. They focussed on pristine Southern Hemisphere ocean regions where it is believed that a cosmic ray signal should be easier to detect than elsewhere.
This is an almost schizophrenic paper. The figures and table indicate highly significant results. For example, the response of clouds to GCR, averaged over all regions for the 18 day event is particularly apparent in cloud amount CA below.
Nevertheless, the conclusions were negative:
CommentsThe overall conclusion, built on a series of independent statistical tests, is that no clear cosmic ray signal associated with Forbush decrease events is found in highly susceptible marine low clouds over the southern hemisphere oceans.
RSS global temperature anomaly in the lower atmosphere decreased to 0.230C from 0.322C the previous month. The Jan Pompe, regular contributor, leads the ‘Guess the monthly global temperatures’ competition:
CommentsNir is is not a keynote speaker at the Heartland Conference, though billed as one on the poster. Here is the program. He is listed as a speaker around 4pm Monday on the program. This is a placeholder for news of his address when it comes in.
Global warming real’ say new studies according to the Financial Times, February 18, 2005. Tim Barnett of Scripps Institute of Oceanography crowed: Read the rest of this entry…
Recent conversations at ClimateAudit about the observations of a steady fall in water vapor in the upper atmosphere have been the subject of some controversy, as contrary to the climate models, they appear to show a strong negative feedback from water vapor as greenhouse gases increase. Climate liberals argue the data are so flawed they should not even be discussed. Climate conservatives argue that the whatever information is there should not be wasted simply because it does not agree with the models.
CommentsJan Pompe sent in a draft of a model of the atmosphere in the form of a circuit diagram. There the passive elements are expressed as capacitors and resistors. Active elements producing amplification as in Cosmic Ray Flux are modeled as Field Effect Transistors (FETs).
TC Hamish has intensified to a Category 5 and will make landfall somewhere in the Hervey Bay region if it continues on its present course. On 24 January, 1974, Cyclone Wanda crossed the coast near Hervey Bay, caused significant flooding in Brisbane resulting in the inundation of over 6000 houses.
Radar loop
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Variation in cosmic ray flux causes changes in the formation of clouds in the atmosphere, by affecting the formation of droplets by charged nuclei, similar to the process of cloud seeding. The seeds are formed when high energy cosmic ray particles collide with other atmospheric particles producing a cosmic ray shower.
CommentsShould we believe the cosmic ray flux theory (CRF)? Here I attempt to answer this question quantitatively, by calculating the strength of evidence so-far presented for CRF as a major forcing factor in climate change. Specifically we need to ask, what is the probability of being wrong about CRF? This can be calculated by combining the significance values of independent lines of evidence.
CommentsThe Younger Dryas, also referred to as the Big Freeze, was an abrupt and unexplained relapse into a glacial cold climate when the earth was emerging out of the last ice age. The dip is clearly seen in the traces below at about 11-12,000 years before present.
CommentsEvery month we conduct a competition to guess the change in global temperatures for the previous month. The results from RSS normally are released on the 5th of the month. Voting is now open for February. You can place your vote below.
RSS global temperature in the lower atmosphere increased 0.148C from the previous month. The two early leaders in the ‘Guess the monthly global temperatures’ competition are still CoRev and Jan Pompe:
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