Monthly Archives: March 2009

Cherry Picking — The paper formerly known as “Voodoo Correlations in Social Neuroscience” 17

Edward Vul, Christine Harris, Piotr Winkielman, & Harold Pashler have published research that provides useful insights into the practice of ‘cherry picking’ or prior selection of desirable results leading to exaggerated significance. They also demonstrates the effect in a comprehensive survey of studies in the field of social neuroscience. To further ‘pin the thumbs of […]

March 2009 Global Temperatures from RSS 26

Its the time of the month for the competition to guess the change in global temperatures for the previous month. Currently Jan Pompe is leading. Luck or insight? Time will tell. Results from RSS normally are released on the 5th of the month. Voting is now open for March. Place your vote below. All with […]

Green Technology Mobsters 74

Jeremy Clarkson on the reaction to his review of the Tesla Roadster. I fear that what we are seeing here is much the same thing professors see when they claim there is no such thing as man-made global warming. Immediately, they are drowned out by an unseen mob, and then their funding dries up. It’s […]

Redoubt now Ultraplinian 26

The rumbling Alaskan volcano Redoubt has exploded producing a stratosphere-reaching plume in excess of 60,000 ft (17 km). An eruption is termed ‘ultraplinian’ if its ejecta reaches the stratosphere, about 10km in height. Dust and gases in the stratosphere are known to depress the global temperature for up to a few years after the eruption. […]

Nir Shaviv explains climate sensitivity 22

Transcript of the introduction of talk by Nir Shaviv, skeptical Astrophysicist, at the 2009 Heartland Conference entitled: New solar climate links and their implications to our understanding of climate change (listen to audio). In the introduction, Nir explains the concept of climate sensitivity very clearly. After this, one can understand the origin of such claims […]

Weird Equations 13

This is a brilliant riff on the financial crisis and how it got to where it is today. Some of the things you learn in an advanced maths degree, are that 1+1 is not always 2 (as in modulo 2 with addition), and big numbers can be small numbers (like the measure of a Cantor […]

Geomagnetic field variations and CRF climate 11

Probably the last in this series on cosmic rays and recent warming, we look at two recent papers on the position of the geomagnetic field and recent climate, most likely mediated by changes in cosmic ray flux. Regional cosmic ray induced ionization and geomagnetic field changes by Kovaltsov and Usoskin examines regional effects on atmospheric […]

Cosmic Ray Flux and the IPCC 144

Here is a roundup on the current IPCC thinking on cosmic rays and recent warming. IPCC and Solar Correlations from ClimateAudit reviews the dismissal of a solar influence on climate in IPCC 1992, 1994 and 2001. IPCC relied to some extent on MBH98 in dismissing these supposed relationships, but, given the defects in this specific […]

Global Temperature for February 2009 Down 20

RSS global temperature anomaly in the lower atmosphere decreased to 0.230C from 0.322C the previous month. The Jan Pompe, regular contributor, leads the ‘Guess the monthly global temperatures’ competition: The guesses were not as biased this time, and about two thirds guessed the direction correctly.

Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative forcing — the background 17

Global warming real’ say new studies according to the Financial Times, February 18, 2005. Tim Barnett of Scripps Institute of Oceanography crowed: “The debate over whether there is a global warming signal is over now at least for rational people.” The article records the team’s triumph: A leading US team of climate researchers on Friday […]

Are Changes in Water Vapor Consistent with the Models 47

Recent conversations at ClimateAudit about the observations of a steady fall in water vapor in the upper atmosphere have been the subject of some controversy, as contrary to the climate models, they appear to show a strong negative feedback from water vapor as greenhouse gases increase. Climate liberals argue the data are so flawed they […]

Tropical Cyclone Hamish 5

TC Hamish has intensified to a Category 5 and will make landfall somewhere in the Hervey Bay region if it continues on its present course. On 24 January, 1974, Cyclone Wanda crossed the coast near Hervey Bay, caused significant flooding in Brisbane resulting in the inundation of over 6000 houses. Radar loop

Cosmic Ray Basics 21

Variation in cosmic ray flux causes changes in the formation of clouds in the atmosphere, by affecting the formation of droplets by charged nuclei, similar to the process of cloud seeding. The seeds are formed when high energy cosmic ray particles collide with other atmospheric particles producing a cosmic ray shower. There are two main […]

Probability of the Cosmic Ray Flux Theory of Climate Change 60

Should we believe the cosmic ray flux theory (CRF)? Here I attempt to answer this question quantitatively, by calculating the strength of evidence so-far presented for CRF as a major forcing factor in climate change. Specifically we need to ask, what is the probability of being wrong about CRF? This can be calculated by combining […]

January 2009 global temperature from RSS 11

RSS global temperature in the lower atmosphere increased 0.148C from the previous month. The two early leaders in the ‘Guess the monthly global temperatures’ competition are still CoRev and Jan Pompe: The guesses were very biased, with an extraordinary 95.7% guessing incorrectly. That’s a lot worst than random choices would do. What is the point […]