Having now submitted a review of the empirical support for weakening of the Walker circulation to the Journal of Geophysical Research, I can get back to the "Is the sea level rise accelerating?" article. The abstract is below: No Significant Basis for Acceleration in Sea level Rise Last Century Abstract: Various authors have claimed that sea level rise is accelerating. This assumption is responsible for the high end projections for sea level by the year 2100. We evaluate three main datasets, Read more [...] 32 com
Below is the abstract of the manuscript I have been preparing. A draft is available via the contact form above if you are interested in helping out with feedback. Comments from the mysterious Dr Jones that prompted this manuscript are listed below. Update: Now Submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research. Recent Data Show No Weakening of the Walker Circulation David R.B. Stockwell and Anthony Cox Abstract: Various authors have examined the strength of the equatorial Pacific overturning known Read more [...] 93 com
From the BoM website: Summary: Mixed El Niño indicators as development slows The El Niño pattern across the Pacific has not intensified during the past fortnight. Furthermore, the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere which amplifies and maintains El Niño events has so far failed to eventuate. The neutral SOI and sub-surface cooling are evidence of this. However, the Trade Winds are weakening over a broad area and this may promote renewed warming. In addition, leading climate models Read more [...] 33 com
A paper well worth reading on the relationship between the Walker circulation and ENSO is Weakening of the Walker Circulation and apparent dominance of El Nino both reach record levels, but has ENSO really changed?, by Scott Power of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Ian Smith of CSIRO. It is very well written and helpful. They aim to prove a notion: We also document what appears to be a concurrent period of unprecedented El Nino dominance. However, our results, together with results from Read more [...] 24 com
Dr Jones drew my attention to a paper by Vecchi (2006) that he feels rebuts the view that increased frequency and intensity of El Nino events are responsible for global warming and not increasing greenhouse gases -- so I give a quick analysis of it here. Dr Jones mentions a confusion cause and effect, so let's try to clarify the different positions first. The two views are something like this for global temperature (GT) and Walker circulation (WC): H1: Increasing ENSO causes increasing GT H2: Read more [...] 24 com
Here is the abstract for our comment submitted to Geophysical Research Letters today. Bob Tisdale is acknowledged as the source of the idea in the first paragraph. Lets see how it goes. If you would like a copy, contact me via the form above. Update: Now available from arXiv Comment on "Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature" by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter David R.B. Stockwell and Anthony Cox Abstract We demonstrate an alternative correlation Read more [...] 35 com
David Appell writes in Scientific American of a number of recent errors in climate science data identified by bloggers, and how, though largely trivial, they are undermining the faith in AGW. While any error in science is important, and those identified should be swiftly corrected, my concern has always been non-trivial errors of statistics. My beef is that large tranches of AGW orthodoxy are supported by claims that do not pass standard tests of significance. Why is significance important? Wikipedia Read more [...] 75 com
Last week I prepared a comment defending McLean's SOI paper. I shall send it in shortly. Basically, I extend their analysis a little and show that the majority of variation in a linear regression model predicting global temperature (not differences) can be accounted for using SOI-related terms. The sorry-state of Dr. Hathaway's prediction record is in the news. For example, in 2006, Dr. Hathaway looked at disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field that are caused by the Sun, and they were strong. Read more [...] 16 com

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