Monthly Archives: November 2009

Climategate 41

Steve’s new site is here. Search the emails from CRU here. Browse the leaked FOIA files here. A department is going to hire a new climate scientist and summons a series of candidates. The selection panel asks each applicant, “What is two plus two?” The first two candidates answer, “Four.” They don’t get the job. […]

Australian Drought Predictions 22

Below are the results of applying the EMD algorithm (Empirical Mode Decomposition) to Australian Rainfall, and predicting the future rainfall with a VAR model (Vector Autoregression). First, EMD splits the rainfall into IMF’s (Intrinsic Mode Functions) that are cyclical but variable in amplitude and frequency.

FOI2009 15

Thomas Fuller The one message I’d like to convey is we do not need to rush on this. This will be around to examine and feed our discussions for a long time to come. If we start right, it will go better for us. There seems to be some indications of possible unethical behaviour, if […]

Expected Changes from Global Warming 10

Have you noticed a distinct change in the rhetoric around global warming? Seems like revisionism going on in the mainstream media in the form of shift in focus to the most likely values, or expectations of global warming, rather than emphasizing the low probability, worse possible scenario. For example, this one on sea level from […]

Predicting global temperature 63

How to predict with EMD? Because the EMD algorithm decomposes time series into a number of periodics of different frequency (IMFs), and a residue trend, prediction in EMD is by extrapolating each of the IMFs separately (a VAR model is recommended) and fitting a cubic polynomial to the residue (example code at end of here). […]

EMD Estimates of Natural Variation 58

Our approach so far has been to model natural climate variation of global temperature with sinusoidal curves, and potential AGW as increasing trends. A new algorithm called EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) promises to more robustly identify cyclical natural variation (NV), showing the contribution of NV and AGW to global temperature, and testing the IPCC claim […]