Paz pointed out that the normalization used previously might not remove geographic biases introduced by fugitive weather stations, so here is another approach. I have differenced each of the records, averaged the differences and then cumulative summed the result. This way we are dealing only in annual increments, up until the final summation. The result differs from the previous, as the pop-up in 1914 is lowered, and the temperatures post 2000 are raised. However, it still seems to depart Read more [...] 29 com

If you have seen the articles on the NZ temperature adjustments and Nordic temperature adjustments you might be interested in the Australian data. The issue with NZ and Nordic data that the raw temperature data for weather stations do not show the temperature increases indicated by the IPCC, raising the question of how the data have been adjusted. As Prof. Karlen states in the ClimateGate email #1221683947, temperature at many stations has not exceeded early 20th century temperatures: .. data Read more [...] 19 com

Steve's new site is here. Search the emails from CRU here. Browse the leaked FOIA files here. A department is going to hire a new climate scientist and summons a series of candidates. The selection panel asks each applicant, "What is two plus two?" The first two candidates answer, "Four." They don't get the job. The third responds, "What do you want it to be?" He gets hired. HT: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/11/024995.php Is it too soon to say "We wus right!"? A heartfelt thanks Read more [...] 37 com

Below are the results of applying the EMD algorithm (Empirical Mode Decomposition) to Australian Rainfall, and predicting the future rainfall with a VAR model (Vector Autoregression). First, EMD splits the rainfall into IMF's (Intrinsic Mode Functions) that are cyclical but variable in amplitude and frequency. You can see each of the modes, their strength and phase, and the uncertainty. The initial modes are very uncertain, not worth including in the model, so only a few IMF are used in the Read more [...] 10 com

Thomas Fuller The one message I'd like to convey is we do not need to rush on this. This will be around to examine and feed our discussions for a long time to come. If we start right, it will go better for us. There seems to be some indications of possible unethical behaviour, if these are true representations of email communications. It isn't right to tell people to delete emails that may be the subject of FOI requests, at the very least. But we don't need to pile onto this right now. Softly, Read more [...] 11 com

Have you noticed a distinct change in the rhetoric around global warming? Seems like revisionism going on in the mainstream media in the form of shift in focus to the most likely values, or expectations of global warming, rather than emphasizing the low probability, worse possible scenario. For example, this one on sea level from nature.com. Sea level rise - not so fast. In the latest salvo of the scientific debate over future sea level rise, a new report counters claims that rapidly swelling Read more [...] 5 com

How to predict with EMD? Because the EMD algorithm decomposes time series into a number of periodics of different frequency (IMFs), and a residue trend, prediction in EMD is by extrapolating each of the IMFs separately (a VAR model is recommended) and fitting a cubic polynomial to the residue (example code at end of here). The predictions are then added together. Below are a couple of examples of EMD predictions on familiar data sets, the HadCRU global surface temperature, and the TLT series Read more [...] 59 com

Our approach so far has been to model natural climate variation of global temperature with sinusoidal curves, and potential AGW as increasing trends. A new algorithm called EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) promises to more robustly identify cyclical natural variation (NV), showing the contribution of NV and AGW to global temperature, and testing the IPCC claim that most of the recent warming is due to AGW. Underestimation of natural variation (NV) is a crucial flaw in the IPCC's logic, according Read more [...] 41 com