Monckton's main argument seems to be represented by the statement that climate sensitivity to CO2 has been overestimated by the IPCC by around 6-7 times, giving exaggerated projections of warming for a business as usual scenario of CO2 emissions. The IPCC range is around 2-6C degrees warming by 2100, and Monckton's is 0.5C. While he provides some calculations, this view is also supported by a measure of respectable scientific literature. The view that CO2 sensitivity is being grossly exaggerated Read more [...] 110 com

WUWT reports in The IPCC: More Sins of Omission – Telling the Truth but Not the Whole Truth the greatest failing of the IPCC, if not environmental sciences. The article describes how the effects of climate change on climate, hunger and water storage are misrepresented to exaggerate negative effects. Here I show that the same deception is in play with the statements on species extinctions in AR4. In Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability it is stated, Read more [...] 2 com

The Brisbane Institute luncheon Panel Debate (Monckton, Plimer, Readfearn, Brook) in the Grand Ballroom, from 12:00 – 2.00pm is sold out. Seats are still available at the Irish Club, across the street from 3pm to 5pm.

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Historic. Not to be missed. I will be at the Brisbane events. Come and say hi. SYDNEY Wednesday 27 January, 12:15, Luncheon, The Union Club, SOLD OUT 17:30 Public lecture, Sheraton on the Park download PDF contact: John Smeed, phone or SMS 0417 269 216 johnsmeedATadna.com.au NEWCASTLE Thursday 28 January 12:30 Public lecture, Newcastle City Hall – Banquet Room Download PDF contact: Anthony Cox, 0412 474916, akcsjAToptusnet.com.au BRISBANE Friday 29 January 12:00 – 2.00 Brisbane Read more [...] none

An opinion on the The Social Cost of Transparency -- a defense of secrecy -- was given by an Australian economist on Mish's blog. Steve Keen says: One quick perusal of that article and I could consign it to neoclassical gibberish. The key giveaway is in the first sentence of the abstract: "I study a class of models commonly used to motivate monetary exchange, extended to include a physical asset whose expected short-run return is subject to exogenous news events, but whose expected long-run return Read more [...] 8 com

JoNova noticed a Canberra Times article that the Tasmanian drought may not be due to global warming after all. Are there any predictions of global warming that have proven true? WUWT has a list of spectacular failures, and is calling on readers to add more. All of the successful 'predictions' I have seen have been ex post facto -- after the fact. The string of failed AGW predictions points to the "expert problem" as described by Nassim Taleb in economics. Substitute Mr Takatoshi for Penny Wong, Read more [...] 19 com

The UAH Index is approaching new highs, but there is overhead resistance immediately ahead, and primary medium-term indicators are becoming modestly overheated. Does this spell trouble ahead for the AGW bulls? Eventually. Overheated conditions generally indicate an imminent drop, usually between -0.6-0.8 degrees C. Our chart shows the satellite data from UAH with three primary medium-term indicators (oscillators). The first is the Bollinger Bands around the actual global temperatures. As Read more [...] 12 com

Concluding that: Approaching the problem under the premise that fuller transparency is always desirable may not be the right place to start. an article On the Social Cost of Transparency in Monetary Economies from the St Louis Fed explains why secrecy and non-disclosure of data may be advantageous. For an asset economy then, the prescription of “full transparency” is not generally warranted. After many pages of mathematics, their argument is summarized: In competitive economies, Read more [...] 7 com

Deserving of wider attention: Ten Commandments of Statistics THOU SHALT... I. Get as large a sample as you can. A. Large N provides for more stable measurement of variables, they are less likely to be affected by outliers. B. Large N also provides for distributions that are more normal, or better reflect the full range of scores in the population. II. Run as few statistical tests as you can. A. running several tests increase the risk of a Type 1 error B. focus your results as much as possible III. Never Read more [...] 7 com

The Australian reports a major new controversy after Britain's Met Office denounced research from Stefan Rahmstorf suggesting that sea levels may increase by more than 1.8m by 2100. Jason Lowe, a leading Met Office climate researcher, said: "We think such a big rise by 2100 is actually incredibly unlikely. The mathematical approach used to calculate the rise is completely unsatisfactory." Critic Simon Holgate, a sea-level expert at the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Merseyside, has written Read more [...] 24 com

As any financial analyst knows, fools and their tools can find confirmation for any pet theory. The only route to certitude is falsification. Realclimate shows numerous examples of confirmation bias in their recent article. In particular, gavin dicusses an update to Hansen's famous graph of projections made back in 1984. They 'confirm' that scenario B -- increasing CO2 -- matches current trends. The trends are probably most useful to think about, and for the period 1984 to 2009 (the 1984 date Read more [...] 32 com

Environment minister Peter Garratt claimed recent figures on Australian temperature prove Opposition leader Tony Abbott was wrong to claim that the world had stopped warming. Substitute Australia for the World, and the last 100 years for 10 years, and you might get close to the actual claim, similar to that made by respected climate physicist Roy Spencer that "there has been no net warming in the last 11 years or so". It’s easy -- but confused -- to find a limited region with a different Read more [...] 3 com