Monthly Archives: February 2010


Vindication 8

A rash of stunning turnarounds have vindicated years of effort by climate sceptics. The day after ClimateGate broke I made three predictions: . Disband the entire Federal Department of Climate Change along with all the individual State Departments of Climate Change. . Vote down the Emissions Trading Scheme Legislation. . Cancel Copenhagen. Australia’s Department of […]


Hyperbole 2

From Nature (see http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo761.html): “The precipitation anomaly of the past few decades in Law Dome is the largest in 750 years, and lies outside the range of variability for the record as a whole, suggesting that the drought in Western Australia may be similarly unusual.” Climate science has a colorful history of hyperbole: hurricanes, droughts, […]


Review of Antarctic Snowfall 15

A recent Nature paper we have been reviewing, claims recent snowfall at Law Dome, Antarctica and the drought in Western Australia “lies outside the range of variability for the record as a whole”. Being about precipitation (often more important to us than temperature), and claims of evidence of AGW causing drought, its interesting. I finally […]


editorial 64

I try not to pen editorials. OK here goes. I respect the attention given to this blog, as there are plenty of other great blogs on climate change, politics, finance, etc to read. I try to stay an ‘on message’ advocate for numeracy. Everyone has something to offer from their experiences though. Right at this […]


Lots of Rain 11

While the US has had record snowfalls, Australia has had its own excesses of precipitation. Below is a 30 day loop of precipitation. The sequence starts with cyclone Olga crossing the coast in the far north east, moving into the Gulf, and tracking south with widespread rain down through the central east and south east. […]


Miskolczi Revisited 124

Just posted on arXiv: The virial theorem and planetary atmospheres by Viktor T. Toth. Abstract We derive a version of the virial theorem that is applicable to diatomic planetary atmospheres that are in approximate thermal equilibrium at moderate temperatures and pressures and are sufficiently thin such that the gravitational acceleration can be considered constant. We […]


Antarctic Snowfall Wrap-up 45

The claim that “the precipitation anomaly of the past few decades in Law Dome is the largest in 750 years, and lies outside the range of variability for the record as a whole”, is a ‘Hockeystick-like’ claim. Such claims have a considerable literature, and the analysis I have been doing is reminiscent of Rybski et.al. […]


Lognormal Snowfall 15

Here is the distribution of annual snowfall in Law Dome Antarctica over the last 750 years (blue), compared to a normal (dashed red) and a lognormal (solid red) distribution. Remember that in the finest Popperian tradition we are trying to disprove that the snowfall in the last few decades at Law Dome has been unusual. […]


Normal's Overrated 4

Yes I watch “House”. I wanted to return to the issue of whether the snowfall in Antarctica is normally distributed, as it has bearing on the claim in van Ommen and Morgan from the abstract: The precipitation anomaly of the past few decades in Law Dome is the largest in 750 years, and lies outside […]


Linking Antarctic snowfall and SWWA precipitation 2

Here is the second major claim contained in van Ommen and Morgan from the abstract: Here we report a significant inverse correlation between the records of precipitation at Law Dome, East Antarctica and southwest Western Australia over the instrumental period, including the most recent decades. The actual figures quoted for correlation are as follows. The […]


Droughts and Antarctica 25

After yesterdays post on the gibberish proof of global warming due to increased Antarctic Circulation, Andrew drew attention to Jones, J. M. and M. Widmann, 2004, Early peak in Antarctic oscillation index claiming that the Antarctic Oscillation has changed in the last thirty to forty years, but is only where it was in the late […]


More drought-related 'proof' of AGW 16

A transcript of an interview with Tas van Ommen on the link between Antarctic excess and West Australian deficits of precipitation displays questionable proof of anthropogenic global warming. A natural circulation pattern surrounding Antarctica has three lobes because of the three continents and three ocean basins in the Southern Hemisphere. Tas claims in the past […]


Disproving Global Warming II 16

The latest submission to arXiv:physics.ao-ph is entitled Interglacials, Milankovitch Cycles, and Carbon Dioxide by Gerald E. Marsh. Here is a review of the evidence regarding the timing of Termination II, the penultimate interglacial transition 140k years ago, and factors that may have caused it: CO2, Milankovitch induced insolation changes, or changes in solar magnetic flux, […]


20th century warming – not? 12

Until recently, even hardened climate skeptics when asked about the science would say: “Well we think it is warming, but how much is caused by humans is uncertain”. Now a rash of revelations are coming out to challenge even this bedrock claim, e.g. It seems that when we leave out the great number of weather […]


Monckton's talk 8

A few impressions from Monckton’s talk at the Brisbane Irish Club, providing some novel points not seen elsewhere. Some interesting impressions did come out of it. I found Monckton (and Plimer) a little disappointing in quality of presentation and slides. A fair bit of time was put into boosting the audience, but his essential points […]