False forecasts are not without consequences. How to think about this? Opposition to "Crying Wolf" is growing. A report by a British MP claims the World Health Organisation and other public health bodies have "gambled away" public confidence by overstating the dangers of the flu pandemic. "This decline in confidence could be risky in the future," says the report, seen by the Guardian. "When the next pandemic arises many persons may not give full credibility to recommendations put forward by WHO Read more [...] 11 com

The "State of the Climate" report from two of Australia's lead agencies, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and CSIRO, states that total rainfall has been "relatively stable" last century, but omitted their own data that clearly shows total rainfall increasing. The fine print at the bottom of BoM graph says rainfall has increased at the "relatively stable" rate of 6.3mm per decade. On downloading the data and fitting a linear regression, the upwards slope is significantly greater than zero as follows. Slope=0.63 Read more [...] 85 com

A couple of recent posts challenging global warming science have not been picked up by other observers. While real scientists find Climategate distasteful, it does not necessarily challenge the pillars of AGW logic. These latest developments do, and perhaps give the insightful a heads-up of the direction of challenges to come. The first is Loehle, Craig. 2010. The estimation of historical CO2 trajectories is indeterminate: Comment on "A new look at atmospheric carbon dioxide." Atmospheric Environment, Read more [...] 4 com

I(0), I(1) or I(2)? What does it all mean? Below is a visual presentation of CO2 concentration from Mauna Loa and global temperature from GISS, demonstrating the difference in their order of integration. The blue series is the increasing level of CO2 in annual steps. Differencing means to successively subtract the previous value at each step, giving the change at each step (the delta or dCO2 shown in magenta). Differencing again gives ddCO2 shown in yellow. After these two differences the Read more [...] 117 com

A short post, but it doesn't take much to show that CSIRO and BoM are telling porkies again in their just released State of Climate report. Just click here to get a graph showing the INCREASING trend in rainfall. The report states: 2. Rainfall While total rainfall on the Australian continent has been relatively stable ... The fine print at the bottom left says: "Linear trend of 6.33mm decade." Related Links: Some quick thoughts on CSIRO drought info. Debate on lack of skill of drought models. Little Read more [...] 78 com

Beenstock's radical theory needs to be tested. As discussed here, he proposed that CHANGE in greenhouse gases (delta GHGs or dGHGs) not absolute values produces global warming. A simple test is to develop linear regression models predicting temperature, with and without GHG and dGHG. If Beenstock's theory is correct, then models containing dGHG should be more accurate. The protocol was to develop and test linear regression models on all the temperature data from 1900 to 2004 (internal test), Read more [...] 57 com

It’s incredible that a global warming theory could agree with both the IPCC (discernable anthropogenic influence) and the sceptics (low long term risk from emissions) but there you are. The analysis of Greenstock suggests it is not the amount of greenhouse gasses, particularly CO2, in the atmosphere that contributes to global warming, but the change in the amount. That is, when the rate of CO2 produced is increasing -- as it was last century -- this increases the global temperature. Conversely, Read more [...] 98 com

Sea level data from Church appear be integrated as I(1). d Root ADF Padf [1,] 0 0.9713052 -0.8354583 0.9561317 [2,] 1 -0.2771277 -5.8808801 0.0100000 [3,] 2 -1.1410606 -8.1287823 0.0100000 As does Jevrejeva's data set from 1700. d Root ADF Padf [1,] 0 0.7552908 -2.106932 0.5312376 [2,] 1 -0.4415736 -9.329505 0.0100000 [3,] 2 -1.3634252 -12.083777 0.0100000 And while the correlation is high when sea level is added into the linear model, the sea Read more [...] 3 com

So now the fun starts. We have established the integration order of the variables in the RadF file, we impose the rule that only variables of the same order can be combined, and in particular that they cannot be cointegrated with temperature which is I(1). In this case all the anthropogenic variables in RadF are I(2) -- W-M_GHGs, O3, StratH2O, LandUse, SnowAlb, BC, ReflAer, AIE -- while Solar and StratAer are I(1) or I(0). Adding these AGW variables together would be one way, as they are Read more [...] 38 com

The test of integration order from the previous post is applied to the major atmospheric forcings used in the GISS global climate models in recent years. These are available for 1880 to 2003 in a file called RadF.txt The codes for the forcings are self explanatory: W-M_GHGs, O3, StratH2O, Solar, LandUse, SnowAlb, StratAer, BC, ReflAer, AIE. Below is the sum of the forcings. We want to know the integration order of the global surface temperature series as well. The result: Temp=1, Read more [...] 27 com

Here we generate and test a number of series with different integration order I(n) and polynomial order O(n). The test is the Augmented Dickey Fuller test, one of the most well known of the unit root tests. Beenstock used three tests, because the tests for unit roots are known to have low power. The six series shown above are as follows (black, red, green): In the first group is a random series I(0), the integrated random series I(1), and the twice integrated random series I(2). The second Read more [...] 22 com

A draft of a paper by Beenstock and Reingewertz has surfaced in the blogosphere, but there seems to be confusion about what unit roots and cointegration are, and I can’t find anywhere on the web that explains them simply for the average Joe. Given one can’t understand the paper without a good grasp of these concepts; I am going to do a few posts in an attempt to make their argument clearer. The ‘differential diagnosis’ of Beenstock that GHG’s are not giving plant Read more [...] 19 com