Monthly Archives: April 2010


Macquarie Generation CO2 Case Thrown Out 4

Carbon Central reports that NSW Land and Environment Court has thrown out most of Australia’s first climate change case, agreeing with Macquarie Generation its licence allows it to emit CO2. NSW Environment Defender’s Office (EDO) argued that the Bayswater coal-fired power station breached its operating licence under the NSW Protection of the Environment Operations Act […]


Problem 2 of Climate Science 10

Problem 2. Cointegration was developed in economics to deal with a problem of spurious correlation between series with stochastic trends. Why should spurious correlation be a concern if the trends in temperature and GHGs are deterministic? Sometimes I’ve been accused of over-simplifying, but I do try to make models as simple as possible, because it […]


Best-Fit Integrated Model of Global Temperature 55

The acronym ARIMA stands for “Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average.” Random-walk and random-trend models, autoregressive models, and exponential smoothing models (i.e., exponential weighted moving averages) are all special cases of ARIMA models. An ARIMA model is classified as an “ARIMA(p,d,q)” model, where the current value y is determined by: * p — the number of lagged […]


Problem 5 of Climate Science 37

Problem 5. Why do most of the forecasts of climate science fail? If climate science had a history of accurate forecasts, it would have a foundation for greater credibility. That is what is expected in other fields. Instead, it is “denialist” to say that climate science has a lousy record of predictions. When I started […]


Problem 3 of Climate Science 18

Problem 3. Why is the concept of ‘climate’ distinguished from the concept of ‘weather’ by an arbitrary free parameter, usually involved in averaging or smoothing or ’scale’ transformations of 10 to 30 years? The recent article on Question #9 by Meiers and response by Stephen Goddard used a coin toss analogy to answer this question. […]