# Monthly Archives: April 2010

## Macquarie Generation CO2 Case Thrown Out9

Carbon Central reports that NSW Land and Environment Court has thrown out most of Australia’s first climate change case, agreeing with Macquarie Generation its licence allows it to emit CO2. NSW Environment Defenderâ€™s Office (EDO) argued that the Bayswater coal-fired power station breached its operating licence under the NSW Protection of the Environment Operations Act […]

## Problem 2 of Climate Science15

Problem 2. Cointegration was developed in economics to deal with a problem of spurious correlation between series with stochastic trends. Why should spurious correlation be a concern if the trends in temperature and GHGs are deterministic? Sometimes I’ve been accused of over-simplifying, but I do try to make models as simple as possible, because it […]

## Best-Fit Integrated Model of Global Temperature58

The acronym ARIMA stands for “Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average.” Random-walk and random-trend models, autoregressive models, and exponential smoothing models (i.e., exponential weighted moving averages) are all special cases of ARIMA models. An ARIMA model is classified as an “ARIMA(p,d,q)” model, where the current value y is determined by: * p — the number of lagged […]

## Problem 5 of Climate Science39

Problem 5. Why do most of the forecasts of climate science fail? If climate science had a history of accurate forecasts, it would have a foundation for greater credibility. That is what is expected in other fields. Instead, it is “denialist” to say that climate science has a lousy record of predictions. When I started […]

## Problem 3 of Climate Science23

Problem 3. Why is the concept of â€˜climateâ€™ distinguished from the concept of â€˜weatherâ€™ by an arbitrary free parameter, usually involved in averaging or smoothing or â€™scaleâ€™ transformations of 10 to 30 years? The recent article on Question #9 by Meiers and response by Stephen Goddard used a coin toss analogy to answer this question. […]

## Problem 1 of Climate Science123

Problem 1. If temperature is adequately represented by a deterministic trend due to increasing GHGs, why be concerned with the presence of a unit root? Rather than bloviate over the implications of a unit root (integrative behavior) in the global temperature series, a more productive approach is to formulate an hypothesis, and test it. A […]

## Central Problems of Climate Science6

Prompted by the interest VS has rekindled in fundamental analysis of the temperature series at Bart’s and Lucia’s blogs, below are a small set of core ‘problems’ facing statistical climate science (CS) — kind of a challenge. Remember a deterministic trend is one brought about by a changing value of the mean, due to a […]