Terry McCran's accusation that CSRIO 'breached trust' in The Australian this weekend sounds like an overly possessive lover saying he will never trust them again: ... our two pre-eminent centres of knowledge and public policy analysis across the social and hard sciences spectrum are now literally unbelievable. In case you hadn't heard, this is about the unseemly Treasury/Mining Co. cat fight over the RSPT, and Tom Quirk's fracas with Paul Fraser, the Chief Research Scientist at CSIRO at Quadrant Read more [...] 30 com

Now reading... Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications by Nicola Scafetta Abstract: We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond in the two records. Among them, large Read more [...] 53 com

Even the Age is circling the wounded beast. Time to go to ER. PORTLAND hospital was rushed into signing a $4.9 million funding agreement for its new GP super clinic so the Rudd government could avoid political embarrassment, a leaked email has revealed. Hospital management was told to sign the agreement by noon on Wednesday – just moments before shadow treasurer Joe Hockey delivered his post-budget reply to the National Press Club. Portland District Health chief executive John O’Neill Read more [...] 9 com

Cheering developments today show the force of numbers in the debate over the Resource Super Profits Mining Tax: As the Treasurer implored the mining industry to drop its "rhetoric and threats" and negotiate with the government, his weekend claim that miners pay effective tax rates of between 13 and 17 per cent was torpedoed by tax office figures produced by the opposition. The ATO data said miners paid an effective rate of 27.8 per cent, which rose to 41.3 per cent with the inclusion of state Read more [...] 14 com

Almost a mea culpa in today's publication of The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño (CSIRO and PDF) by a who's who of atmospheric circulation research including Vecchi, and CSIRO/BoM researchers Cai and Power. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency Read more [...] 32 com

Sceptic - from the Greek skeptikos one who reflects upon, from skeptesthai to consider. Scepticism is variously described as a doubting or questioning attitude, a person who uses their mind creatively, or even someone who demands physical evidence in order to be convinced (especially when this demand is out of place). To consider carefully with regard to evidence is the professional way to approach public affairs, or matters of considerable importance -- the opposite of sloppy, credulous, reckless Read more [...] one

Is the anthropogenic climate change controversy just an episode in an ongoing drama, and if so what is the main theme? The Catallaxyfiles in RSPT in la la land review a number of biting newspaper editorials on the Resource Super Profits Tax (RSPT), providing a possible answer by replacing a few words. Funny thing is, Garimpeiro does not think the government and its Treasury [IPCC] advisers actually know that they have been practising deceptions. It’s more a case of them not having an even Read more [...] 2 com

Hauser's Law states that tax revenues remain at about 19.5% of GDP. When higher taxes reap more revenue, GDP contracts due to the flight of capital investment to bring the yield back to ~20%. Today I looked at the application of this principle (not really a law) to tax revenues in the State of Queensland (where I live). Eg: Total GSR - Government sector revenue (2008-9): $37bn Total GSP - Gross State Product (2008-9): $224bn Which is 17% and fairly close to the Hauser Law value, and so gives Read more [...] 18 com

Will a 40% tax on mining profits increase government revenue from the sector? If you apply the theoretical perspective of Hauser's Law, maybe not. Hauser's Law is based on an empirical observations that no matter what the tax rates have been, in postwar America tax revenues have remained at about 19.5% of GDP. It easy to see that constant revenue, whatever the tax rate, could give rise to the niche-like Laffer curve, a humped distribution where rates of taxation above or below an optimal rate Read more [...] none

Watts' Tour of Australia is to be announced shortly. He will be visiting a number of major and many minor regional centres, accompanied by David Archibald. I will be speaking at Newcastle, Noosa and Emerald (Q). I have decided to present as much local context as much as possible, structured around a review of the CSIRO State of the Climate Report. This report implies that climate changes in Australia are a result of human emissions of greenhouse gases. I think I will critique this with reviews Read more [...] 12 com