Monthly Archives: June 2010


Upper Atmosphere Inflow of Moisture? 17

For those interested in the theory that upper atmosphere inflow of moisture from the Indian Ocean is a major determinant of rain in Australia, check out the satellite loop for the last 4 hours right now. Here is the development of the inflow over the last few days. Note this is in the presence of […]


Page-Proofs of the DECR Paper 13

Corrected the page-proofs of my drought paper today. CRITIQUE OF DROUGHT MODELS IN THE AUSTRALIAN DROUGHT EXCEPTIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES REPORT (DECR) ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the reliability of modeling in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) where global circulation (or climate) simulations were used to forecast future extremes of temperatures, rainfall and soil moisture. The DECR […]


Watts Tour at Emerald 4

Anthony’s Tour continues at a breakneck pace this week — with only four venues to go. The talks at Emerald that I organized went quite well, considering this is a small regional town. About 80-100 people attended an teaser session during the Property Rights Australia meeting during the day, and around 40 attended at night. […]


Niche Logic 7

The ‘strongest male’ is itself a highly variable component. How to formalise this as a niche? Preamble. All we have, really, are observations. To put niches into a statistical framework, we only have the expected distributions of those observations (both singly and jointly). Selection (either natural or through our study design) changes the distribution of […]


Niche Theory 28

A couple of questions from the last nichey post prompted this post. Geoff said that: I’m not even sure what is meant by an optimal environment for a species/genus/whatever. while Andrew said that: it wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of species tend to live at the margins of their “ideal” habitat. We need a […]


Sceptics Tour Update 17

Having just returned from my leg of the tour, I have been offline for awhile, but expect to catch up this week. Here is my powerpoint presentation “Tweeter and the Monkey M(e)an — Negating Climate Change Policy” (4.3MB). The title comes from a song by the Traveling Wilburys. The message is that without proper validation, […]


Australia's Government Debt 52

Below is a graph of the blow-out in Australian Government Debt. I don’t know why everyone is blaming Rudd. Growing the State is what tax-and-spend-spend liberals do. The idea that the budget should be in deficit for the next four or five years when the economy is at near-full employment, should be laughable. But Rudd […]


No evidence of global warming extinctions 6

My rebuttal of Thomas’ computer models of massive species extinctions has been mentioned in a statement by Sen. Orrin G. Hatch before the United States Senate, on June 10, 2010. 1. Stockwell (2000) observes that the Thomas models, due to lack of any observed extinction data, are not ‘tried and true,’ and their doctrine of […]


Species extinction by Johnston 18

It’s gratifying to see the essay by Johnston getting the attention it deserves (at WUWT and JoNova) after Pielke brought it to our attention. Johnston reviews many areas of climate science in 82 pages of readable prose and concludes: Insofar as establishment climate science has glossed over and minimized such fundamental questions and uncertainties in […]


Frequency dependent climate sensitivity 13

Nicola Scafetta published another paper today, confirming the period dependency of climate sensitivity. (I would have loved to write this, but he attributes the original idea to a book chapter by Wigley in 1988, so its not original anyway.) In his words, climate sensitivity is frequency dependent: However, the multiple linear regression analysis is not […]