Roger Pielke Sr. reviews another very important new paper showing the abuse of models.
In the opinion of the editor Kundzewicz (who has served prominently on the IPCC), climate models were only designed to provide a broad assessment of the response of the global climate system to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings, and to serve as the basis for devising a set of GHG emissions policies. They were not designed for regional adaptation studies.
To expect more from these models is simply unrealistic, Read more [...] 23 com
In The National Science Foundation Funds Multi-Decadal Climate Predictions Without An Ability To Verify Their Skill Roger Pielke Sr. links GCM skill at predicting drought with natural variation:
2. “Future efforts to predict drought will depend on models’ ability to predict tropical SSTs.”
In other words, there is NO way to assess the skill of these models are predicting drought as they have not yet shown any skill in SST predictions on time scales longer than a season, nor natural climate Read more [...] 2 com
The APS reminds me of the Australian Prime Minister's Standing Committee on Climate Change. Some of the more choice parts of Hal's resignation letter are extracted below.
Everything that has been done in the last year has been designed to silence debate
The appallingly tendentious APS statement on Climate Change
The original Statement, which still stands as the APS position, also contains what I consider pompous and asinine advice to all world governments, as if the APS were master of Read more [...] 13 com
My critique of models used in a major Australian drought study appeared in Energy and Environment last month (read Critique-of-DECR-EE here). It deals with validation of models (the subject of a recent post by Judith Curry), and regional model disagreement with rainfall observations (see post by Willis here).
The main purpose is summed up in the last sentence of the abstract:
The main conclusion and purpose of the paper is to provide a case study showing the need for more rigorous and explicit Read more [...] 5 com