Niche Modeling 2010 Roundup and Goodbye

Seth Godin, a blogger I admire greatly, suggests we publish a list of accomplishments for the year (What did you ship in 2010?).

  • Peer-reviewed publication demonstrating that policy-makers are being misled by inadequate climate models.
  • Hosted a venue for the “Watts Up With the Climate” Tour of Australia.
  • Gave four public lectures on climate skepticism, arguing that the forecasts of prominent climate modelers are not reliable.
  • Contributed to two articles on the ABC community blog site Unleashed.
  • Started a school chess club
  • Reviewed a number of manuscripts
  • Set up the The Climate Sceptics Party web site, supporting their candidates in the general election.

I would like to express my gratitude to everyone who helped as it could not have been done by me alone. I hope that in some small way a measure of common sense has been brought into the climate change controversy.

My greatest achievement in my mind was preparation of a draft of a paper on a new climate modeling approach that has been circulated to selected climate scientists. Based on a control-systems methodology and called “Accumulative model of climate systems” some highlights are:

  • A mechanism for amplification of weak solar forcing by accumulation in the ocean, explaining solar variation from 1 million to annual time scales;
  • A model showing that even if global warming since 1970 was caused by increasing greenhouse gasses (and not UHI eg.), greenhouse gasses cannot present a significant long-term warming problem, due to poor ocean-atmosphere coupling;
  • A model showing how PDO/AMO cycles may be driven by random ENSO variations.

As I would like to spend considerable time this year getting this work published, I am going to discontinue posting comments on topical events on this blog, at least until this paper is shipped.

Since there is so much control-systems background material to go through in order to understand the modeling framework, I have a mind to expand it into a book. In that case I will post draft chapters on this blog as they are done.

All the best for 2011! I’ll be back!