Global sea level must accelerate beyond the less than 3mm/yr rise presently to produce rises of a meter or more put out by the Australian Government fear-mongers. Challenges to the main basis for the 1 meter projections just posted on RC Is sea level rise accelerating? shows just how lame the defense of these catastrophic claims has become.
This is modelling I and many other have been very critical of in the past. A response by Houston and Dean contains further complaints about Rahmstorf’s modeling:
… it is easily seen that the portion of Figure 1 where the agreement is “good” compares their modeling versus increasingly meaningless data, and they have been selective in showing only data that appear to match their modeling and not the data that strongly disagree.
A recent workshop of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2010) considered the semi-empirical approaches of Rahmstorf (2007), Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009), and others and concluded, “No physically-based information is contained in such models …” (p. 2) and “The physical basis for the large estimates from these semi-empirical models is therefore currently lacking” (p. 2).
Geoff Sherrington back in my original post noted a few more rebuttals and asked:
What does it take to drive a stake through its heart sufficient that no reputable scientist will refer to it except as an example of what not to do?
Climate Commission scientist Will Steffen aims high:
“I expect the magnitude of global average sea-level rise in 2100 compared to 1990 to be in the range of 0.5 to 1.0 metre,” Steffen said in his preface to “The Critical Decade”.
The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, seized on the Climate Commission report saying:
“We don’t have time for false claims in this debate. The science is in, climate change is real.”
H&D sum up the complaint — there is no evidence of the acceleration needed:
To reach the multimeter levels projected for 2100 by RV requires large positive accelerations that are one to two orders of magnitude greater than those yet observed in sea-level data.
To which Rahmstorf responds — we don’t need no stinkin’ evidence:
As Houston & Dean state in their final sentence, we indeed predict a much larger acceleration of sea level rise in the 21st Century than is observed in the 20th Century. That is a direct logical consequence of the fact that we expect much larger warming in the 21st than in the 20th.
Meanwhile, at some climate conference in Melbourne.
A CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship climate researcher, Dr Whetton said that, compared to annual average temperatures recorded in 1850, a 4ºC warming might occur by the end of this century if greenhouse gas emissions stay high. She said the projections are based primarily on the Australian regional results from up to 23 global climate models.
Yada yada yada.