Comments on: A new temperature reconstruction http://landshape.org/enm/a-new-temperature-reconstruction/ The Power of Numeracy Wed, 16 May 2012 18:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Gnomus http://landshape.org/enm/a-new-temperature-reconstruction/#comment-5666 Gnomus Tue, 07 Jul 2009 20:47:07 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=15#comment-5666 Ничего прикольного тут нет Ничего прикольного тут нет

]]> By: logiciel http://landshape.org/enm/a-new-temperature-reconstruction/#comment-5665 logiciel Wed, 14 Jun 2006 00:05:56 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=15#comment-5665 <strong>logiciel...</strong> so think, to in da?... logiciel…

so think, to in da?…

]]> By: ENM » Random numbers predict future temperatures http://landshape.org/enm/a-new-temperature-reconstruction/#comment-5664 ENM » Random numbers predict future temperatures Tue, 02 May 2006 06:58:44 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=15#comment-5664 [...] Previously I developed a “New Temperature Reconstruction” using random data with long term persistence (LTP) modeled on the general methods in dendroclimatology. Here I have developed another simulation. Instead of projecting into the past and reconstructing temperatures, this one predicts into the future using random numbers with LTP. Every time you reload the page a new prediction of future temperatures will be generated. The LTP series is generated by my knock-up of fractional differencing code. I am making the php code available here so it’s available for peer review (and probably correction). [...] [...] Previously I developed a “New Temperature Reconstruction” using random data with long term persistence (LTP) modeled on the general methods in dendroclimatology. Here I have developed another simulation. Instead of projecting into the past and reconstructing temperatures, this one predicts into the future using random numbers with LTP. Every time you reload the page a new prediction of future temperatures will be generated. The LTP series is generated by my knock-up of fractional differencing code. I am making the php code available here so it’s available for peer review (and probably correction). [...]

]]> By: davids http://landshape.org/enm/a-new-temperature-reconstruction/#comment-5663 davids Thu, 16 Mar 2006 21:23:12 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=15#comment-5663 Demetris: you ask - Is this method of choosing the best fit samples (tree rings) really “blessed by dendroclimatologyâ€?? Steve McIntyre on his blog has documented this prevailing view (e.g. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=365), and has an extrodinary quote by Esper et al. (Cook, Krusic, Peters, Schweingruber) from Tree Ring Res. 2003, p.92, "The ability to pick and choose which samples to use is an advantage unique to dendroclimatology." Not only does 'cherry picking' appear blessed, they are apparently uniquely qualified to perform it. Demetris: you ask – Is this method of choosing the best fit samples (tree rings) really “blessed by dendroclimatologyâ€?? Steve McIntyre on his blog has documented this prevailing view (e.g. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=365), and has an extrodinary quote by Esper et al. (Cook, Krusic, Peters, Schweingruber) from Tree Ring Res. 2003, p.92, “The ability to pick and choose which samples to use is an advantage unique to dendroclimatology.” Not only does ‘cherry picking’ appear blessed, they are apparently uniquely qualified to perform it.

]]> By: davids http://landshape.org/enm/a-new-temperature-reconstruction/#comment-6063 davids Thu, 16 Mar 2006 21:23:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=15#comment-6063 Demetris: you ask - Is this method of choosing the best fit samples (tree rings) really “blessed by dendroclimatology”? Steve McIntyre on his blog has documented this prevailing view (e.g. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=365), and has an extrodinary quote by Esper et al. (Cook, Krusic, Peters, Schweingruber) from Tree Ring Res. 2003, p.92, "The ability to pick and choose which samples to use is an advantage unique to dendroclimatology." Not only does 'cherry picking' appear blessed, they are apparently uniquely qualified to perform it. Demetris: you ask – Is this method of choosing the best fit samples (tree rings) really “blessed by dendroclimatology”? Steve McIntyre on his blog has documented this prevailing view (e.g. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=365), and has an extrodinary quote by Esper et al. (Cook, Krusic, Peters, Schweingruber) from Tree Ring Res. 2003, p.92, “The ability to pick and choose which samples to use is an advantage unique to dendroclimatology.” Not only does ‘cherry picking’ appear blessed, they are apparently uniquely qualified to perform it.

]]> By: Demetris Koutsoyiannis http://landshape.org/enm/a-new-temperature-reconstruction/#comment-5662 Demetris Koutsoyiannis Thu, 16 Mar 2006 14:22:05 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=15#comment-5662 I enjoyed and had fun reading this very clever and simple example of how processes with long-range dependence behave and what the implications may be. I could also say "how nature behaves" as more and more evidence is accumulated that natural processes behave like processes with long-range dependence. Having been involved in research about processes of this type, I think I know this behaviour and its consequences and I also think that most people have not understood it; even people that have published on Hurst have failed to point out the consequences. In several talks I have said that the Hurst behaviour is a bomb in the foundation of climatology, hydrology and perhaps statistics; this means that the edifice has to be rebuilt. In this respect, this article is constructive and also didactic. A first lesson for me is that a good example may be more important than a rigorous theoretical analysis. A second lesson is that it is difficult to deal with (e.g. reconstruct) high uncertainty (and poorly understood) processes, such as the climatic processes. What it impressed me above all, because I did not know, is the way that proxies may have been constructed, if I believe this article and the comments posted here and in Climate Audit. Is this method of choosing the best fit samples (tree rings) really "blessed by dendroclimatology"? Are the samples with bad fit disregarded at all? At least they could be used to estimate the uncertainty of reconstructions, which I guess is very high – and additional to the uncertainty implied by the Hurst behaviour. I enjoyed and had fun reading this very clever and simple example of how processes with long-range dependence behave and what the implications may be. I could also say “how nature behaves” as more and more evidence is accumulated that natural processes behave like processes with long-range dependence. Having been involved in research about processes of this type, I think I know this behaviour and its consequences and I also think that most people have not understood it; even people that have published on Hurst have failed to point out the consequences. In several talks I have said that the Hurst behaviour is a bomb in the foundation of climatology, hydrology and perhaps statistics; this means that the edifice has to be rebuilt. In this respect, this article is constructive and also didactic. A first lesson for me is that a good example may be more important than a rigorous theoretical analysis. A second lesson is that it is difficult to deal with (e.g. reconstruct) high uncertainty (and poorly understood) processes, such as the climatic processes. What it impressed me above all, because I did not know, is the way that proxies may have been constructed, if I believe this article and the comments posted here and in Climate Audit. Is this method of choosing the best fit samples (tree rings) really “blessed by dendroclimatology”? Are the samples with bad fit disregarded at all? At least they could be used to estimate the uncertainty of reconstructions, which I guess is very high – and additional to the uncertainty implied by the Hurst behaviour.

]]> By: Demetris Koutsoyiannis http://landshape.org/enm/a-new-temperature-reconstruction/#comment-6062 Demetris Koutsoyiannis Thu, 16 Mar 2006 14:22:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=15#comment-6062 I enjoyed and had fun reading this very clever and simple example of how processes with long-range dependence behave and what the implications may be. I could also say "how nature behaves" as more and more evidence is accumulated that natural processes behave like processes with long-range dependence. Having been involved in research about processes of this type, I think I know this behaviour and its consequences and I also think that most people have not understood it; even people that have published on Hurst have failed to point out the consequences. In several talks I have said that the Hurst behaviour is a bomb in the foundation of climatology, hydrology and perhaps statistics; this means that the edifice has to be rebuilt. In this respect, this article is constructive and also didactic. A first lesson for me is that a good example may be more important than a rigorous theoretical analysis. A second lesson is that it is difficult to deal with (e.g. reconstruct) high uncertainty (and poorly understood) processes, such as the climatic processes. What it impressed me above all, because I did not know, is the way that proxies may have been constructed, if I believe this article and the comments posted here and in Climate Audit. Is this method of choosing the best fit samples (tree rings) really "blessed by dendroclimatology"? Are the samples with bad fit disregarded at all? At least they could be used to estimate the uncertainty of reconstructions, which I guess is very high – and additional to the uncertainty implied by the Hurst behaviour. I enjoyed and had fun reading this very clever and simple example of how processes with long-range dependence behave and what the implications may be. I could also say “how nature behaves” as more and more evidence is accumulated that natural processes behave like processes with long-range dependence. Having been involved in research about processes of this type, I think I know this behaviour and its consequences and I also think that most people have not understood it; even people that have published on Hurst have failed to point out the consequences. In several talks I have said that the Hurst behaviour is a bomb in the foundation of climatology, hydrology and perhaps statistics; this means that the edifice has to be rebuilt. In this respect, this article is constructive and also didactic. A first lesson for me is that a good example may be more important than a rigorous theoretical analysis. A second lesson is that it is difficult to deal with (e.g. reconstruct) high uncertainty (and poorly understood) processes, such as the climatic processes. What it impressed me above all, because I did not know, is the way that proxies may have been constructed, if I believe this article and the comments posted here and in Climate Audit. Is this method of choosing the best fit samples (tree rings) really “blessed by dendroclimatology”? Are the samples with bad fit disregarded at all? At least they could be used to estimate the uncertainty of reconstructions, which I guess is very high – and additional to the uncertainty implied by the Hurst behaviour.

]]> By: richard http://landshape.org/enm/a-new-temperature-reconstruction/#comment-5661 richard Wed, 15 Mar 2006 20:49:02 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=15#comment-5661 Yes. The great hockey stick debate , appearing at a right-wing web site near you soon. I guess it just makes people less guilty about their SUVs. Are there similar projects for other indicators of global warming like carbon dioxide or hurricanes ? Sorry, I know hurricanes are out. Yes. The great hockey stick debate , appearing at a right-wing web site near you soon. I guess it just makes people less guilty about their SUVs. Are there similar projects for other indicators of global warming like carbon dioxide or hurricanes ? Sorry, I know hurricanes are out.

]]> By: richard http://landshape.org/enm/a-new-temperature-reconstruction/#comment-6061 richard Wed, 15 Mar 2006 20:49:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=15#comment-6061 Yes. The great hockey stick debate , appearing at a right-wing web site near you soon. I guess it just makes people less guilty about their SUVs. Are there similar projects for other indicators of global warming like carbon dioxide or hurricanes ? Sorry, I know hurricanes are out. Yes. The great hockey stick debate , appearing at a right-wing web site near you soon. I guess it just makes people less guilty about their SUVs. Are there similar projects for other indicators of global warming like carbon dioxide or hurricanes ? Sorry, I know hurricanes are out.

]]> By: actus http://landshape.org/enm/a-new-temperature-reconstruction/#comment-5660 actus Wed, 15 Mar 2006 20:48:18 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=15#comment-5660 Can you apply some rigor to this statement: “I think you can see the similarity to other published reconstructions (see here), particularly the prominent ‘hockey-stick’ shape, the cooler temperatures around the 1500s and the Medieval Warm Period around the 1000s.� Can you apply some rigor to this statement:

“I think you can see the similarity to other published reconstructions (see here), particularly the prominent ‘hockey-stick’ shape, the cooler temperatures around the 1500s and the Medieval Warm Period around the 1000s.�

]]>