Abandon Government Sponsored Research on Forecasting Climate – Green

Kesten Green, now of U South Australia, has a manuscript up called Evidence-based Improvements to Climate Forecasting: Progress and Recommendations arguing that evidence-based research on climate forecasting finds no support for fear of dangerous man-made global warming, because simple, inexpensive, extrapolation models are more accurate than the complex and expensive “General Circulation Models” used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Their rigorous evaluations of the poor accuracy of climate models supports the view there is no trend in global mean temperatures that is relevant for policy makers, and that…

[G]overnment initiatives that are predicated on a fear of dangerous man-made global warming should be abandoned. Among such initiatives we include government sponsored research on forecasting climate, which are unavoidably biased towards alarm (Armstrong, Green, and Soon 2011).

This is what I found also in the evaluation of the CSIRO’s use of IPCC drought model. In fact, the use of the climate model projections is positively misleading, as they show decreasing rainfall over the last century when rainfall actually increased.

This is not welcome news to the growing climate projection science industry that serves the rapidly growing needs of impact and adaptation assessments. A new paper called Use of Representative Climate Futures in impact and adaptation assessment by Penny Whetton, Kevin Hennessy and others proposes another ad-hoc fix to climate model inaccuracy called Representative Climate Futures (or RFCs for short). Apparently the idea is the wide range of results given by different climate models are classified as “most likely” or “high risk” or whatever, and the researcher is then free to chose whichever set of models he or she wishes to use.

Experiment Resources.Com condemns ad hoc-ery in science:

The scientific method dictates that, if a hypothesis is rejected, then that is final. The research needs to be redesigned or refined before the hypothesis can be tested again. Amongst pseudo-scientists, an ad hoc hypothesis is often appended, in an attempt to justify why the expected results were not obtained.

Read “poor accuracy of climate models” for “hypothesis is rejected” and you get the comparison. Models that are unfit for the purpose need to be thrown out. RCF appears to be a desperate attempt to do something, anything, with grossly inaccurate models.

On freedom of choice, Kesten Green says:

So uncertain and poorly understood is the global climate over the long term that the IPCC modelers have relied heavily on unaided judgment in selecting model variables and setting parameter values. In their section on “Simulation model validation in longer-term forecasting” (p. 969–973, F&K observe of the IPCC modeling procedures: “a major part of the model building is judgmental” (p. 970).

Which is why its not scientific.