Comments on: Another Copenhagen Synthesis Report Error?

By: http://test.com

http://test.com — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 02:44:40 +0000

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By: Jack & Jones

Jack & Jones — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 13:26:12 +0000

Great post

By: Jean S

Jean S — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:49:59 +0000

Lucia, yes, it's just a straight line.

Here's how it is exactly done in the code (this is for the "right" end):
pright=polyfit(idx,x(idx),1);
This fits (returns a and b) a 1st order polynomial (a straight line)
y=a*idx+b for M last data points in the series x.
Then
paddedX=[polyval(pleft,(-(M-1):0)');x;polyval(pright,n+(1:M)')];
Appends data x (to right) with values y from the equation
evaluated at points (n is the last index) n+1,...,n+M.
Of course, it would be enough to append only M-1 values as the filter length is 2M-1. The last thing can be seen from how the filter is obtained:
tfilt=conv(E,flipud(E))/M
(later normalized to sum to unity). The length of E ("maximal eigenvector" from ssa) is M, so the convolution between E and "flipped" (i.e. reversed) E produces a 2M-1 length vector.

By: lucia

lucia — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:27:59 +0000

JeanS– Stefan edited out the link to my post where we discuss the fishy odor surrounding his document? Heh. (I only edit out links to porn etc.)

David S–
Is the Grinstead extension just a plain straight line? No 'noise'?

By: cohenite

cohenite — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:42:27 +0000

Did I say Will Steffen? I'm seeing that guy behind the bushes; time for a scotch.

By: Niche Modeling » Recent Climate Observations: Disagreement With Projections

Niche Modeling » Recent Climate Observations: Disagreement With Projections — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 10:41:45 +0000

[...] As Jan Pompe remarks, if temperatures continue to stay flat, is it justified to keep increasing the smoothing period of [...]

By: Jean S

Jean S — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 08:25:05 +0000

At least in five days time he managed to edit away my link to Lucia's blog post

By: Jan Pompe

Jan Pompe — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 07:42:49 +0000

That's what I though. Thanks

By: davids99us

davids99us — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 07:06:17 +0000

Only if you want to keep the trend going up.

By: Jan Pompe

Jan Pompe — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 06:57:52 +0000

It raised the question though if there are more cool years will he have to lengthen the filter even more to maintain a robust trend.

I'm not a statistician but I'm wondering if that is a valid thing to do.