Category Archives : All


Things of Interest 3

New E-Cat website here. Nice. Patronizing essay at the Conversation. My guess is that as the “Climate Crisis” continues to fizzle, the less gullible skeptical scientists will take a more prominent place. The credibility of CSIRO, BoM and Astronomers will likely suffer for the certainty they have voiced, their deference to the IPCC, and defense […]


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Renewables: Dumbest f***ing idea I have ever heard 15

Paraphrasing Steve Jobs — reasons not to pursue renewables: 1. Anti-environment. Increasing the concentration of generation allows larger areas of land to be retained in their natural state. In contrast, harvesting of land for biomass, wind or solar or energy damages more land. Advocates of renewable energy damn the natural environment with ugly, dangerous solar […]


Niche Modeling 2010 Roundup and Goodbye 5

Seth Godin, a blogger I admire greatly, suggests we publish a list of accomplishments for the year (What did you ship in 2010?). Peer-reviewed publication demonstrating that policy-makers are being misled by inadequate climate models. Hosted a venue for the “Watts Up With the Climate” Tour of Australia. Gave four public lectures on climate skepticism, […]


The Cost of Green Schemes 4

Another day, another half-baked green scheme busted as $150 million is blown on a clean coal scheme. Common sense tells us that burning a bulk substance, only to recapture it and return it back to where it came from will be very expensive. And, OMG, that’s what they found. Its a good example of moral […]


Climate model abuse 24

Roger Pielke Sr. reviews another very important new paper showing the abuse of models. In the opinion of the editor Kundzewicz (who has served prominently on the IPCC), climate models were only designed to provide a broad assessment of the response of the global climate system to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings, and to serve as […]


Hal Lewis’ Resignation 12

The APS reminds me of the Australian Prime Minister’s Standing Committee on Climate Change. Some of the more choice parts of Hal’s resignation letter are extracted below. Everything that has been done in the last year has been designed to silence debate The appallingly tendentious APS statement on Climate Change The original Statement, which still […]


About 19

This site since 2006 has dealt with current scientific issues, through feedback or drawing attention to articles — perhaps even your own! We prefer articles that show a fascination with evidence from numbers — that share the passion — and welcome critical feedback as a path to knowledge. The range of topics considered is wide, […]


Validation of Climate Models – the missing link 33

Validation of climate models is like finding someone to cement your drive. You ask one contractor, and they say they can do it, sometime between now and Christmas. That’s a high level of uncertainty. You ask another, and they say they can do it, but it’s their first time. That’s a low level of skill. […]


Monthly Roundup 8

The Age reports that Climategate was a game changer. Judith Curry said Dr Jones had shown himself to be ”genuinely repentant, and has been completely open and honest about what has been done and why … speaking with humility about the uncertainty in the data sets”. So far its a case of the academic defense: […]


Upper Atmosphere Inflow of Moisture? 11

For those interested in the theory that upper atmosphere inflow of moisture from the Indian Ocean is a major determinant of rain in Australia, check out the satellite loop for the last 4 hours right now. Here is the development of the inflow over the last few days. Note this is in the presence of […]


Page-Proofs of the DECR Paper 7

Corrected the page-proofs of my drought paper today. CRITIQUE OF DROUGHT MODELS IN THE AUSTRALIAN DROUGHT EXCEPTIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES REPORT (DECR) ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the reliability of modeling in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) where global circulation (or climate) simulations were used to forecast future extremes of temperatures, rainfall and soil moisture. The DECR […]


Watts Tour at Emerald 1

Anthony’s Tour continues at a breakneck pace this week — with only four venues to go. The talks at Emerald that I organized went quite well, considering this is a small regional town. About 80-100 people attended an teaser session during the Property Rights Australia meeting during the day, and around 40 attended at night. […]


Niche Logic 3

The ‘strongest male’ is itself a highly variable component. How to formalise this as a niche? Preamble. All we have, really, are observations. To put niches into a statistical framework, we only have the expected distributions of those observations (both singly and jointly). Selection (either natural or through our study design) changes the distribution of […]


Niche Theory 21

A couple of questions from the last nichey post prompted this post. Geoff said that: I’m not even sure what is meant by an optimal environment for a species/genus/whatever. while Andrew said that: it wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of species tend to live at the margins of their “ideal” habitat. We need a […]


Sceptics Tour Update 13

Having just returned from my leg of the tour, I have been offline for awhile, but expect to catch up this week. Here is my powerpoint presentation “Tweeter and the Monkey M(e)an — Negating Climate Change Policy” (4.3MB). The title comes from a song by the Traveling Wilburys. The message is that without proper validation, […]


Australia's Government Debt 51

Below is a graph of the blow-out in Australian Government Debt. I don’t know why everyone is blaming Rudd. Growing the State is what tax-and-spend-spend liberals do. The idea that the budget should be in deficit for the next four or five years when the economy is at near-full employment, should be laughable. But Rudd […]


Species extinction by Johnston 14

It’s gratifying to see the essay by Johnston getting the attention it deserves (at WUWT and JoNova) after Pielke brought it to our attention. Johnston reviews many areas of climate science in 82 pages of readable prose and concludes: Insofar as establishment climate science has glossed over and minimized such fundamental questions and uncertainties in […]


Frequency dependent climate sensitivity 12

Nicola Scafetta published another paper today, confirming the period dependency of climate sensitivity. (I would have loved to write this, but he attributes the original idea to a book chapter by Wigley in 1988, so its not original anyway.) In his words, climate sensitivity is frequency dependent: However, the multiple linear regression analysis is not […]


CSIRO Affair? 38

Terry McCran’s accusation that CSRIO ‘breached trust’ in The Australian this weekend sounds like an overly possessive lover saying he will never trust them again: … our two pre-eminent centres of knowledge and public policy analysis across the social and hard sciences spectrum are now literally unbelievable. In case you hadn’t heard, this is about […]


Celestial Origins of Climate Oscillations 64

Now reading… Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications by Nicola Scafetta Abstract: We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. […]


Blood in the Water 16

Even the Age is circling the wounded beast. Time to go to ER. PORTLAND hospital was rushed into signing a $4.9 million funding agreement for its new GP super clinic so the Rudd government could avoid political embarrassment, a leaked email has revealed. Hospital management was told to sign the agreement by noon on Wednesday […]


Numeracy Rules the RSPT! 15

Cheering developments today show the force of numbers in the debate over the Resource Super Profits Mining Tax: As the Treasurer implored the mining industry to drop its “rhetoric and threats” and negotiate with the government, his weekend claim that miners pay effective tax rates of between 13 and 17 per cent was torpedoed by […]


No Clue on Global Warming and El Nino 34

Almost a mea culpa in today’s publication of The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño (CSIRO and PDF) by a who’s who of atmospheric circulation research including Vecchi, and CSIRO/BoM researchers Cai and Power. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many […]