Category Archives : Climate


BoM copies me, inadequately

Yesterday’s post noted the appearance of station summaries at the BoM adjustment page attempting to defend their adjustments to the temperature record at several stations. Some I have also examined. Today’s post compares and contrasts their approach with mine. Deniliquin The figures below compare the minimum temperatures at Deniliquin with neighbouring stations. On the left, […]

Deniliquin

The Widening Gap Between Present Global Temperature and IPCC Model Projections 12

An increase in global temperature required to match the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections is becoming increasingly unlikely. A shift to a mean projected pathway of 3 degrees increase by the end of the century would require an immediate, large, and sustained increase in temperature which seems physically impossible. Global surface temperatures have […]


Q: Where Do Climate Models Fail? A: Almost Everywhere 4

“How much do I fail thee. Let me count the ways” Ben Santer’s latest model/observation comparison paper demonstrates that climate realists were right and climate models exaggerate warming: The multimodel average tropospheric temperature trends are outside the 5–95 percentile range of RSS results at most latitudes. Where do the models fail? 1. Significantly warmer than […]


SanterPNAS

Santer: Climate Models are Exaggerating Warming – We Don’t Know Why 22

Ben Santer’s latest model/observation comparison paper in PNAS finally admits what climate realists have been been saying for years — climate models are exaggerating warming. From the abstract: On average, the models analyzed … overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear… Their figure above shows the massive […]


AGW Doesn’t Cointegrate: Beenstock’s Challenging Analysis Published 14

The Beenstock, Reingewertz, and Paldor paper on lack of cointegration of global temperature with CO2 has been accepted! This is a technical paper that we have been following since 2009 when an unpublished manuscript appeared, rebutting the statistical link between global temperature increase and anthropogenic factors like CO2, and so represents another nail in the […]


Still no weakening of the Walker Circulation 11

Once upon a time, a weakening of the East-West Pacific overturning circulation – called the Walker circulation – was regarded in climate science as a robust response to anthropogenic global warming. This belief was based on studies in 2006 and 2007 using climate models. Together with a number of El Nino events (that are associated […]


Circularity and the Hockeystick: coming around again 4

The recent posts at climateaudit and WUWT show that climate scientists Gergis and Karoly were willing to manipulate their study to ensure a hockeystick result in the Southern Hemisphere, and resisted advice from editors of the Journal of Climate to report alternative approaches to establish robustness of their study. The alternative the editors suggested of […]


Is the problem alarmism, or prestige-seeking? 5

We all make mistakes. Sometime we exaggerate the risks, and sometimes we foolishly blunder into situations we regret. Climate skeptics often characterize their opponents as ‘alarmist’. But is the real problem a tendency for climate scientists to be ‘nervous ninnies’? I was intrigued by the recent verdict in the case of the scientists before an […]


The Creation of Consensus via Administrative Abuse 6

The existence of ‘consensus’ around core claims of global warming is often cited as some kind of warrant for action. A recent article by Roger Pielke Jr reported the IPCC response to his attempts to correct biases and errors in AR4 in his field of expertise — extreme events losses. As noted at CA, he […]


Opinions on the New Zealand AGW Judgement 14

Apropos the New Zealand AGW case, comments below by Goon and Ross: # Goon (8) Says: September 8th, 2012 at 3:45 pm Justifying the unjustifiable. Don’t believe me…. then here is where the raw data lives. http://cliflo.niwa.co.nz/ Register and have a look for yourself. Nothing even remotely approaching a 1 degree/century trend in the raw […]


Carbon abatement from wind power – zero 3

Zip, nil, nada. That’s the findings of a two-year analysis of Victoria’s wind-farm developments by mechanical engineer Hamish Cumming. Despite hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayers money, from subsidies and green energy schemes driven by the renewable energy target, surprise, surprise, Victoria’s wind-farm developments have saved virtually zero carbon dioxide emissions due to their […]


Lewandowsky — again 3

This guy, a UWA employee, was shown by a Arlene Composta to be the most naive of leftists. He now says that climate skeptics are conspiracy theorist wackos. We have responded to this guy before: He thinks the cognitive processes of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) sceptics is deficient and on the same level as “truthers” […]


Abandon Government Sponsored Research on Forecasting Climate – Green 23

Kesten Green, now of U South Australia, has a manuscript up called Evidence-based Improvements to Climate Forecasting: Progress and Recommendations arguing that evidence-based research on climate forecasting finds no support for fear of dangerous man-made global warming, because simple, inexpensive, extrapolation models are more accurate than the complex and expensive “General Circulation Models” used by […]


Summary: NZ Climate Science Coalition vs. NIWA 9

More thought-provoking thoughts from Richard on the duties and responsibilities of statutory bodies like NIWA. (NIWA is actually an incorporated body that is owned by the Crown, where-ever that plays into things.) Anyway, everyone seems to agree that their handling of the temperature records in New Zealand is biased and deficient. The issue is, does […]


Final Day: NZ Climate Science Coalition vs. NIWA 2

Quote from the defense: He must have been responding to our charge that NIWA did not perform its statutory duty. He said: “They’re not duties, they’re not called duties, they’re called operating principles.” This seemed to come from the current legislation, or recent decisions. Where in the operating principles is the principle that government climate […]


Day 2: NZ Climate Science Coalition vs. NIWA 12

Quote of the day from New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research: The matters [at issue] arise between the plaintiff’s (the Coalition’s) Statement of Claim (SOC) and the Defendant’s (NIWA’s) Statement of Defence (SOD). NIWA counter-claimed they had no obligation to pursue excellence or to use best-quality scientific practices and also that the […]


Benefits of Global Warming 2

A new WSJ article signed by 16 scientists: A recent study of a wide variety of policy options by Yale economist William Nordhaus showed that nearly the highest benefit-to-cost ratio is achieved for a policy that allows 50 more years of economic growth unimpeded by greenhouse gas controls. This would be especially beneficial to the […]


Perth 1940 Max Min Daily Temps 7

Previous posts have introduced the work that Chris Gillham is doing in spot auditing the accuracy of the Bureau of Meteorology’s temperature records. He has now re-recorded the daily max and min temperatures from one Australian weather station for one year, Perth 9034 in 1940, using original sources in The West Australian newspaper. Below is […]

Rplot

Perth 1940 Jan-Dec – Errors 4

Chris Gillham has completed re-digitizing one years worth of the daily temperature records for Perth in 1940 (perth-1940-actual-raw). These are digitised for all of 1940 at Perth Regional Office 9034 from temperatures published in The West Australian newspaper. While the majority of the temperatures agree with contemporary BoM data, up to a third of the […]


Rewriting the Temperature Records – Adelaide 1912 3

Record temperature always make the news, with climate alarmists trumpeting any record hot day. But what if the historic record temperatures recorded by BoM were adjusted down, and recent records were not records at all? More detective work using old newspapers by Chis Gillham in Adelaide this time. The BoM claims the hottest ever Feb […]

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perth 1940 discrepancies

Perth 1940 Jan-Mar Historic Comparisons 4

Continuing the comparison of historic sources of temperature and contemporary records, Chris Gillham has compiled a list of maximum and minimum daily temperatures for Perth for the months of January, February and March 1940 and uncovered some strange discrepancies (highlighted – all months at perth-newspapers-mar-qtr-1940). Chris notes that while BoM’s contemporary temperatures largely agree with […]


Comparison of historic temperature with BoMs record 2

Siliggy has pulled a simple list of maximum temperatures for Adelaide from old newspapers early last century then compared to the BOM records for that time. In most cases the BoM records are 1.5C cooler that the current record. What a clear demonstration of how much they have been adjusted down — equal to the […]


Should the ABS take over the BoM? 3

I read an interesting article article about Peter Martin, head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. He has a refreshing, mature attitude to his job. ‘I want people to challenge our data – that’s a good thing, it helps us pick things up,’ he says. Big contrast to the attitude of Climate Scientists. Examples that […]


Dynamical vs Statistical Models Battle Over ENSO 14

There is a battle brewing between dynamical and statistical models. The winner will be determined when the current neural ENSO conditions resolve into an El Nino or not in the current months. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society compares the predictions of ensembles of each type of model here. Although most of the […]

SST_table

Screening on the dependent, auto-correlated variable 1

To screen or not to screen? The question arises in the context of selecting which sets of tree-rings to use for millennial temperature reconstructions. One side, represented by CA, says screening is just plain wrong: In the last few days, readers have drawn attention to relevant articles discussing closely related statistical errors under terms like […]