One of the themes we have dealt with repeatedly is bias: in global warming reporting and research, especially statistical bias. Bias in the media against the Ron Paul campaign is becoming a big issue. Above is a clip of people telling Dana Bash, a CNN news reporter, what they thought of her biased reporting. One incident was were Dana reported that Republicans in general were worried "like I am" that RP would continue on and hurt her presumptive nominee Mitt Romney. In another hilarious Read more [...] none

November 20, 2008 Ron Paul said in a New York Times / Freakonomics interview: “I try to look at global warming the same way I look at all other serious issues: as objectively and open-minded as possible. There is clear evidence that the temperatures in some parts of the globe are rising, but temperatures are cooling in other parts. The average surface temperature had risen for several decades, but it fell back substantially in the past few years. Clearly there is something afoot. The question Read more [...] 11 com

Global temperature TLT anomaly for RSS MSU is almost back to zero at 0.03C. The most reliable estimates of temperature have gone nowhere for over 30 years. 6 com

Andrew Bolt picked up on one of the emails from Climategate 2 that gives a fascinating insight into the collusion between academia and the WWF in the manufacturing of environmental scares. It also shows the role of the precautionary principle as a "deus ex machina", a device of dubious merit for solving tricky problems in a plot. Step 1. At 12:21 13/09/99 -0400, Andrew Markham, director of World Wildlife Fund's Climate Change Campaign, writes to Mike Hulme at UAE: >Meanwhile, Hurricane Read more [...] 2 com

Have you listened to the Ray Hadley audio here ripping into Tim Flannery? Bolt doesn't go into detail, but its well worth the 20min listen. Apparently Flannery fabricated the whole Crikey story about a media setup over his Hawksbury River house, with interviews with the local resident in question to prove it. Ray calls him "low scum" and a "liar" repeatedly. Strong stuff. Off to court we go again. Climategate2: This from Mike Hulme is interesting recommending CSIRO as being reliable for Read more [...] none

Lovely “David Jones” subject: RE: African stations used in HadCRU global data set to: “Phil Jones” Thanks Phil for the input and paper. I will get back to you with comments next week. Fortunately in Australia our sceptics are rather scientifically incompetent. It is also easier for us in that we have a policy of providing any complainer with every single station observation when they question our data (this usually snows them) and the Australian data is in pretty good order anyway Read more [...] 2 com

On IPCC scientists test the Exit doors. Professor Palutikof said it would take a while for the effects of climate change to become visible. But without action, she said, “gradually, over time, that signal will emerge with resounding clarity”. Well that's inconvenient, isn't it? So how about anomalous heat in the ocean, the melting of glaciers and arctic ice. How about the surface temperature and the sea level? How about droughts, floods, hurricanes and cyclones? You know -- like the Read more [...] 5 com

Wow. Herman Cain is now 20% in front of his nearest GOP rival Mitt Romney. That's 10% up in the last week. His message. 9-9-9. 999 is the emergency number for a number of countries (but not the US where the number is 911). Herman Cain has a degree in mathematics. Cain’s 9-9-9 video concludes with text saying, “If 10% is good enough for God, then 9% should be just fine for the Federal Government.” Praised by supporters for both its simplicity and its specificity, Cain’s Read more [...] one

With the Carbon Tax legislation up for a vote on Wednesday, this is a critical week. Skeptics should embrace the challenge of communicating common-sense and logic over Green ideology. I feel strongly we should not give up, wave a white flag and surrender. Every week there are more reasons not to pass this legislation. The global temperature continues not to rise. The ocean heat remains stable. Global warming appears to have peaked. More research is published showing flaws in previous studies Read more [...] 2 com

Menzies House reports on the latest efforts to suppress opposition to the Carbon Tax, as around 4500 Australians opposed to the carbon tax have had their submissions to the Joint Select Committee on Australia's Clean Energy Future Legislation rejected out of hand. The 4500 number was stated by Senator Birmingham on his website: This rushed 'shotgun' inquiry received more than 4500 emails in barely a week, but in an extraordinary abuse of democratic process the Labor-Greens majority opted Read more [...] 4 com

This one has an Australian flavor: Read more [...] none

Which is better for the environment: renewable energies, oil, gas, coal or nuclear energy? The environmental damage caused by energy sources can be measured by their 'footprint' -- the area required to produce a specific amount of energy. An article in Forbes lists the energy produced per unit area of major energy sources, from which I have calculated the area required to produce a specific amount of energy. SourceW/m2m2/W Biofuels0.0520 Wind power1.20.8 Solar PV6.70.15 Natural Read more [...] 3 com

Nir Shaviv is an astrophysicist who wrote some of the more interesting studies showing the role of Gamma Ray Flux (GRF) on climate change, now belatedly being acknowledged by the climate establishment. He gives some advice to students here: Stay away from Climate Science until you are tenured or retired! My point is that because climate science is so dogmatic students do risk burning themselves because of the politics, if they don’t follow the party line. Since doing bad (“alarmist”) Read more [...] one

Sea levels, recently updated with 10 new data-points, reinforce the hiatus described as a 'pothole' by Josh Willis of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., who says you can blame the pothole on the cycle of El Niño and La Niña in the Pacific: This temporary transfer of large volumes of water from the oceans to the land surfaces also helps explain the large drop in global mean sea level. But they also expect the global mean sea level to begin climbing again. Attributing the Read more [...] 5 com

This is the application of the work-in-progress Fast Fourier Transform algorithm by Bart coded in R on the total solar irradiance (TSI via Lean 2000) and global temperature (HadCRU). The results show (PDF) that the atmosphere is sufficiently sensitive to variations in solar insolation for these to cause recent (post 1950) warming and paleowarming. The mechanism, suggested by the basic energy balance model, but confirmed by the plots below, is accumulation. That is, global temperature is not Read more [...] 8 com

Starting the S&B story at the beginning, as did Steve McIntyre, with Dessler 2010 in Science, I'll put a new spin on the satellite data uploaded by Steve, using the accumulation theory. Although I am not familiar with the data, it turns out to be easily interpretable. In black is the replication of Steve's Figure 1 and Dessler's 2010 Figure 2A, the scatter plot of monthly average values of ∆R_cloud (eradr) versus ∆T_s (erats) using CERES and ECMWF interim data. There is extremely little Read more [...] 4 com

A dynamic way of looking at global temperature is to plot it in phase space, which is usually with the position on the x axis and velocity on the y axis. Below is the phase space graph of global temperature since 1996 with temperature on the x axis and change in temperature on the y axis. The graph of position versus velocity displays an inward spiral. In classical mechanics, this is described as an "attractor" and shows that the system is trapped in a potential well from which it cannot Read more [...] 5 com

The NIPCC - Interim Report 2011 updates their last 2009 Report, with an overview of the research on climate change that the IPCC did not see fit to print. Its published by the Heartland Institute with lead authors Craig D. Idso, Australian Robert Carter, and S. Fred Singer with a number of other significant contributions. I am grateful for inclusion of some of my work in Chapter 6 on the uncertainty of the range-shift method for modeling biodiversity under climate change. The controversy Read more [...] 5 com

The New Zealand Climate Conversation Group have released their report and reanalysis of the NIWA 7-Station Review. CCG claim NIWA misrepresented the statistical techniques it used, and exaggerated warming over the last hundred years. The CCG results (Figure 20 above) prove there are real problems in the adjustments to temperature measurements for moves and equipment changes in NZ (also seen in Australia). As any trained scientist or engineer knows, failure to follow a well-documented Read more [...] 2 com

Richard Treadgold from the New Zealand Climate Conversation Group reports on the Statistical Audit of the NIWA 7-Station Review, claiming that New Zealand's National Climate Center, NIWA, misrepresented the statistical techniques it used (Rhoades & Salinger - Adjustment of temperature and rainfall records for site changes) in order to fabricate strong warming over the last hundred years. NIWA shows 168% more warming than Rhoades & Salinger – the method NIWA betrayed. The blue dashed Read more [...] 3 com

Lag or phase relationships are to me one of the most convincing pieces of evidence for the accumulative theory. The solar cycle varies over 11 years on average like a sine wave. This property can be used to probe contribution of total solar insolation (TSI) to global temperature. Above is a plot of two linear regression models of the HadCRU global temperature series since 1950. The time since 1950 is chosen because it is the period that the IPCC states that most of the warming has been Read more [...] 7 com

The point of this post is to show a calculation by guest, Pochas, of the decay time that should be expected from the accumulation of heat in the mixed layer of the ocean. I realized this prediction gives another test of the accumulation theory of climate change, that potentially explains high climate sensitivity to variations in solar forcing, without recourse to feedbacks, or greenhouse gasses, in more detail here and here. The analysis is based on the most important parameter in all dynamic Read more [...] 16 com

Do the results described here and here constitute a new theory? What is the relationship to the AGW theory? What is a theory anyway? The models I have been exploring, dubbed solar supersensitivity, predict a lot of global temperature observations: the dynamics of recent and paleoclimate climate variations, the range of glacial/interglacial transitions, the recent warming coinciding with the Grand Solar Maximum, and the more recent flattening of warming. They make sense of the statistical Read more [...] none

Below is a worked example of the theory of high solar sensitivity, supersensitivity if you will, explained in detail in manuscripts here and here. The temperature increase of a body of water is: T = Joules/(Specific Heat water x Mass) The accumulation of 1 Watt per sq meter on a 100 metre column of water for one year gives an expected temperature increase of T = 32 x 10^6/(4.2 x 10^8) = 0.08 C Given that about one third attenuation of radiation from top-of-atmosphere to the surface, Read more [...] none

Roy Spencer posted the following comparison between the 20th Century runs from most (15) of the IPCC AR4 climate models, and Levitus observations of ocean warming during 1955-1999. Here are the best 4 models: The accuracy of the other models is far worse. In Roy's assessment: Previous investigators (as well as the IPCC AR4 report) have claimed that warming of the oceans is “consistent with” anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. The actual rate of accumulated heat Read more [...] one

The physical structure of the oceans and atmosphere entails very long equilibrium dynamics due the slow accumulation of heat in the land and ocean. An ARMA analysis evaluates the potential of accumulation of solar anomaly to explain the global temperature changes over glacial/interglacial and recent time-frames. Click image above for animation of the accumulation model for the 1950-2011 period. The results of an early version of the accumulation theory are here. Contrary to the consensus Read more [...] one

I have just uploaded a manuscript to the preprint archive viXra. ViXra is an interesting alter-ego to the other preprint archive arXiv. The goals of viXra are: It is inevitable that viXra will therefore contain e-prints that many scientists will consider clearly wrong and unscientific. However, it will also be a repository for new ideas that the scientific establishment is not currently willing to consider. Other perfectly conventional e-prints will be found here simply because the authors were Read more [...] 3 com

The dynamics of a surge tank, used to suppress damaging over-pressure in fluid lines, is described by a simple ordinary differential equation (ODE) the same as eqn. 1 in the recent paper by Spencer and Brasswell, "On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance", so very generally applicable to many systems. The dynamics has been coded into an Excel spreadsheet by ControlsWiki, with an example of default variables above. Note: 1. Read more [...] 23 com

While this post was previously removed for publication purposes, the publication guidelines do allow discussion of papers under review on private blogs. The also allow submission of manuscripts to archives. The full text of an early version of the accumulation theory can be read here. Read more [...] 16 com

Seth Godin, a blogger I admire greatly, suggests we publish a list of accomplishments for the year (What did you ship in 2010?). Peer-reviewed publication demonstrating that policy-makers are being misled by inadequate climate models. Hosted a venue for the "Watts Up With the Climate" Tour of Australia. Gave four public lectures on climate skepticism, arguing that the forecasts of prominent climate modelers are not reliable. Contributed to two articles on the ABC community blog site Read more [...] 3 com