Category Archives : Programming


Is OHC Accelerating? 82

Code and figures to quantify the answer to the question “Is ocean heat content is accelerating?” are below. The idea is that ‘acceleration’ is synonymous with the significance of a quadratic term in a regression: 1. Annual OHC data from NODC. 2. Fit a regression model (M1) incorporating linear and periodic terms of period 60 […]


Weekly Roundup 18

Last week I prepared a comment defending McLean’s SOI paper. I shall send it in shortly. Basically, I extend their analysis a little and show that the majority of variation in a linear regression model predicting global temperature (not differences) can be accounted for using SOI-related terms. The sorry-state of Dr. Hathaway’s prediction record is […]


Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature 113

A potential AGW buster, attributing decadal temperature variation largely to internal oceanic effects, ENSO and over the longer term the 1976 Great Pacific Climate Shift, as we did here, is a new paper by Australian John McLean, with New Zealander Chris de Freitas, and Australian ex-pat Kiwi Bob Carter. That mean global tropospheric temperature has […]


Preprint on climatic regime shifts 52

Download: Structural break models of climatic regime-shifts: claims and forecasts Anthony asked if it would be difficult to statistically justify the breaks in temperature between 1976 and 1979 proposed by Quirk (2009) for Australian temperature. He has an interest in oceanographic regime-shifts and climate change. Sure, I said, a simple Chow test. We ended up […]


Recent Climate Observations: Disagreement With Projections 35

Appearing in Energy and Environment (ee-20-4_7-stockwell2) is a note by myself on a paper by IPCC lead authors Rahmstorf, S., Cazenave A., Church J.A., Hansen J.E., Keeling R.F., Parker D.E., and R.C.J. Somerville, Recent climate observations compared to projections published in Science in 2007. As shown by 102 citations in Google Scholar already, Rahmstorf et […]


Proof of AGW 33

Given the way the components of the surface temperature record extracted from the SSA (singular spectrum analysis) line up with various potential causes of climate change in the previous post here, the temptation is to latch onto series 2, and say, aha, there is the forcing due to increase in CO2. It’s the right shape, […]


R code for SSA example 2

The code for plotting the non-linear temperature trend, using SSA (singular spectrum analysis) in the figure below is here – ssa-demo. I have made it as turnkey as I can. The steps are: 1. Get and Install package ssa (http://r-forge.r-project.org/projects/ssa/). I had to hand-compile and move the C shared library around so it would find […]


The value of tau 666

Admin: Posted up for Steve, with an initial response by Miklos. The slides Steve referred to are here. My bad for not telling Miklos that. Link to TF&K08 Miskolczi theory proposes a tau (Ta if you will) significantly different from that found by at least a dozen other studies published in the peer-reviewed literature over […]


GBR recovery 6

A feel-good story of nature’s resiliency, “Doom and Boom on a Resilient Reef: Climate Change, Algal Overgrowth and Coral Recovery” has been making press with headlines focusing on the state of mind of the authors: Marine scientists say they are astonished at the spectacular recovery of certain coral reefs in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef Marine […]


Niche Modeling. Chapter Summary 6

Here is a summary of the chapters in my upcoming book Niche Modeling to be published by CRC Press. Many of the topics have been introduced as posts on the blog. My deepest thanks to everyone who has commented and so helped in the refinement of ideas, and particularly in providing motivation and focus. Writing […]