Niche Modeling

This newly released study from the Australian Institute of Marine Science in Townsville is getting a lot of press. An interview with the author Glen De’ath by the ABC claims a tipping point for coral growth has already been reached in 1990. Mongabay.com claims the growth of coral in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef [...]

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What affects global warming? We have been developing experiments to examine what affects greenhouse warming. To counter intuitive certitude, I have asked people to guess the results of simple experiments before they are done. Finally, we’ll evaluate the relevance to stratospheric and tropospheric forcing if at all.

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One of the main assumptions of linear regression is, ahem, linearity. Here is an example drawn from dendroclimatology, the reconstruction of past climates using tree rings, of the trouble one can get into by blindly assuming linearity. This subject was dealt with some time ago at ClimateAudit Upside-Down Quadratic Proxy Response.

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A number of readers have expressed some knowledge of the greenhouse effect and how it works. Here is a quiz to give the punters an opportunity to show they know what they are talking about.

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Today I repeated the greenhouse experiment reported yesterday. The weather conditions were more favorable, being still and sunny in the initial period, but became more thermally towards the end. I also replaced the plastic flour container with a solid glass jar. Whereas yesterday the temperatures inside the sealed jar only reached 66% of [...]

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Continued from Greenhouse Heat Engine:

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A couple of days ago, Luke, a frequent commenter, sent in a number of links to a new Australian Government drought initiative. The Minister Tony Burke has appointed an Expert Panel to examine the social impacts of drought as part of its national review of exceptional circumstances (EC) funding, which argues for a major change, [...]

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I have converted the draft of the introductory document The new climate theory of Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi by Dr. Noor van Andel into a Wiki. The permissions are set for registered users of the Wiki to freely edit it. There are a great deal of areas where it could be improved and added [...]

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Comment by Ken Gregory moved from Greenhouse Heat Engine.
Last month I asked Ferenc Miskolczi to calculate a 60 year trend of optical depths using radiosonde data I compiled from the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory to confirm his prediction of constant optical depth. We finally got the results:

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Thread for “Consistency of Modelled and Observed Temperature Trends in the Tropical Troposphere”, by B.D. Santer et al.

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One of the tests of climate models predicting drought in my review of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report was the correlation of predicted area under drought with actual observed area under drought. Lazar criticized my inclusion of the R-Squared (r2) coefficient, and issue I didn’t follow up at the time.

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Geoff Sherrington has been drawing attention to some changes in the legal language attached to various emails and reports associated with the CSIRO and the Climate Adaptation Flagship (CAF). Since I have been posting up emails in an attempt to hold people accountable, I have been looking into the legality. In the case [...]

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Below is the email received a month ago from Dr Andrew Ash, Director of the Climate Adaptation Flagship, promising a formal response to issues raised about the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) concerning no apparent attempt at validation of the climate models for drought in the report, or evidence of skill at modeling drought. [...]

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Support was expressed for our efforts with the DECR from a reader of the Sydney Morning Herald below.

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The sharp-eyed UC who keeps a good technical blog on signal theory alerted me to this intelligent reference in the Finnish media to Rahmstorf et al. 2007. This is a paper I have reviewed previously and had words with Stefan at RealClimate demonstrating they had grossly underestimated the uncertainty at the end points. This [...]

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Well it is almost 24 hours since I posted the comment below to RealClimate at the post by Stefan Rahmstorf, about the inconsistency in the methodology used in their Science Brevia article to show that climate is trending higher than IPCC models. As yet the post has not appeared. I can’t see how [...]

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