It was shown here that the phase shift between total solar irradiance and global temperature is exactly one quarter of the solar cycle, 90 degrees, or 2.75 years. This is a prediction of the accumulation theory described here and here that shows how solar variation can account for paleo and recent temperature change. Phase shifts in the short-wave (SW) side of the climate system are erroneously attributed to 'thermal inertia' of the ocean and earth mass, and called 'lags', or regarded as non-existent. Read more [...] 13 com

This is the application of the work-in-progress Fast Fourier Transform algorithm by Bart coded in R on the total solar irradiance (TSI via Lean 2000) and global temperature (HadCRU). The results show (PDF) that the atmosphere is sufficiently sensitive to variations in solar insolation for these to cause recent (post 1950) warming and paleowarming. The mechanism, suggested by the basic energy balance model, but confirmed by the plots below, is accumulation. That is, global temperature is not Read more [...] 8 com

Starting the S&B story at the beginning, as did Steve McIntyre, with Dessler 2010 in Science, I'll put a new spin on the satellite data uploaded by Steve, using the accumulation theory. Although I am not familiar with the data, it turns out to be easily interpretable. In black is the replication of Steve's Figure 1 and Dessler's 2010 Figure 2A, the scatter plot of monthly average values of ∆R_cloud (eradr) versus ∆T_s (erats) using CERES and ECMWF interim data. There is extremely little Read more [...] 4 com

Here are a few more phase plots of global temperature after the impulse of stratosphere-reaching eruptions, Mt Agung, Mt Chichon and Mt Pinatubo in 1963, 1982 and 1991 respectively. The impulses are cooling of course, due to the shielding of short-wave solar radiation by stratospheric aerosols. The tendency of the global temperature dynamic to oscillate around a mean is clear. These patterns were then disrupted by large El Ninos. The axes of the phase space are chosen to represent Read more [...] 2 com

Lag or phase relationships are to me one of the most convincing pieces of evidence for the accumulative theory. The solar cycle varies over 11 years on average like a sine wave. This property can be used to probe contribution of total solar insolation (TSI) to global temperature. Above is a plot of two linear regression models of the HadCRU global temperature series since 1950. The time since 1950 is chosen because it is the period that the IPCC states that most of the warming has been Read more [...] 7 com

The point of this post is to show a calculation by guest, Pochas, of the decay time that should be expected from the accumulation of heat in the mixed layer of the ocean. I realized this prediction gives another test of the accumulation theory of climate change, that potentially explains high climate sensitivity to variations in solar forcing, without recourse to feedbacks, or greenhouse gasses, in more detail here and here. The analysis is based on the most important parameter in all dynamic Read more [...] 16 com

Do the results described here and here constitute a new theory? What is the relationship to the AGW theory? What is a theory anyway? The models I have been exploring, dubbed solar supersensitivity, predict a lot of global temperature observations: the dynamics of recent and paleoclimate climate variations, the range of glacial/interglacial transitions, the recent warming coinciding with the Grand Solar Maximum, and the more recent flattening of warming. They make sense of the statistical Read more [...] none

Below is a worked example of the theory of high solar sensitivity, supersensitivity if you will, explained in detail in manuscripts here and here. The temperature increase of a body of water is: T = Joules/(Specific Heat water x Mass) The accumulation of 1 Watt per sq meter on a 100 metre column of water for one year gives an expected temperature increase of T = 32 x 10^6/(4.2 x 10^8) = 0.08 C Given that about one third attenuation of radiation from top-of-atmosphere to the surface, Read more [...] none

Roy Spencer posted the following comparison between the 20th Century runs from most (15) of the IPCC AR4 climate models, and Levitus observations of ocean warming during 1955-1999. Here are the best 4 models: The accuracy of the other models is far worse. In Roy's assessment: Previous investigators (as well as the IPCC AR4 report) have claimed that warming of the oceans is “consistent with” anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. The actual rate of accumulated heat Read more [...] one

The physical structure of the oceans and atmosphere entails very long equilibrium dynamics due the slow accumulation of heat in the land and ocean. An ARMA analysis evaluates the potential of accumulation of solar anomaly to explain the global temperature changes over glacial/interglacial and recent time-frames. Click image above for animation of the accumulation model for the 1950-2011 period. The results of an early version of the accumulation theory are here. Contrary to the consensus Read more [...] one

I have just uploaded a manuscript to the preprint archive viXra. ViXra is an interesting alter-ego to the other preprint archive arXiv. The goals of viXra are: It is inevitable that viXra will therefore contain e-prints that many scientists will consider clearly wrong and unscientific. However, it will also be a repository for new ideas that the scientific establishment is not currently willing to consider. Other perfectly conventional e-prints will be found here simply because the authors were Read more [...] 3 com

The dynamics of a surge tank, used to suppress damaging over-pressure in fluid lines, is described by a simple ordinary differential equation (ODE) the same as eqn. 1 in the recent paper by Spencer and Brasswell, "On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance", so very generally applicable to many systems. The dynamics has been coded into an Excel spreadsheet by ControlsWiki, with an example of default variables above. Note: 1. Read more [...] 23 com

While this post was previously removed for publication purposes, the publication guidelines do allow discussion of papers under review on private blogs. The also allow submission of manuscripts to archives. The full text of an early version of the accumulation theory can be read here. Read more [...] 16 com