Category Archives : Solar Accumulation Theory


Phase Shift in Spencer’s Data 17

It was shown here that the phase shift between total solar irradiance and global temperature is exactly one quarter of the solar cycle, 90 degrees, or 2.75 years. This is a prediction of the accumulation theory described here and here that shows how solar variation can account for paleo and recent temperature change. Phase shifts […]


FFT of TSI and Global Temperature 13

This is the application of the work-in-progress Fast Fourier Transform algorithm by Bart coded in R on the total solar irradiance (TSI via Lean 2000) and global temperature (HadCRU). The results show (PDF) that the atmosphere is sufficiently sensitive to variations in solar insolation for these to cause recent (post 1950) warming and paleowarming. The […]

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Phase Plots of Global Temperature after Eruptions 7

Here are a few more phase plots of global temperature after the impulse of stratosphere-reaching eruptions, Mt Agung, Mt Chichon and Mt Pinatubo in 1963, 1982 and 1991 respectively. The impulses are cooling of course, due to the shielding of short-wave solar radiation by stratospheric aerosols. The tendency of the global temperature dynamic to oscillate […]

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Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered 19

The point of this post is to show a calculation by guest, Pochas, of the decay time that should be expected from the accumulation of heat in the mixed layer of the ocean. I realized this prediction gives another test of the accumulation theory of climate change, that potentially explains high climate sensitivity to variations […]


Solar Supersensitivity – a new theory? 6

Do the results described here and here constitute a new theory? What is the relationship to the AGW theory? What is a theory anyway? The models I have been exploring, dubbed solar supersensitivity, predict a lot of global temperature observations: the dynamics of recent and paleoclimate climate variations, the range of glacial/interglacial transitions, the recent […]


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Global Warming Temperature Trends 8

Roy Spencer posted the following comparison between the 20th Century runs from most (15) of the IPCC AR4 climate models, and Levitus observations of ocean warming during 1955-1999. Here are the best 4 models: The accuracy of the other models is far worse. In Roy’s assessment: Previous investigators (as well as the IPCC AR4 report) […]


Accumulation Theory of Solar Influence 4

The physical structure of the oceans and atmosphere entails very long equilibrium dynamics due the slow accumulation of heat in the land and ocean. An ARMA analysis evaluates the potential of accumulation of solar anomaly to explain the global temperature changes over glacial/interglacial and recent time-frames. Click image above for animation of the accumulation model […]

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ARIMA theory of climate change 7

I have just uploaded a manuscript to the preprint archive viXra. ViXra is an interesting alter-ego to the other preprint archive arXiv. The goals of viXra are: It is inevitable that viXra will therefore contain e-prints that many scientists will consider clearly wrong and unscientific. However, it will also be a repository for new ideas […]


A Calibrated Water Tank 29

The dynamics of a surge tank, used to suppress damaging over-pressure in fluid lines, is described by a simple ordinary differential equation (ODE) the same as eqn. 1 in the recent paper by Spencer and Brasswell, “On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance”, so very generally applicable to […]

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