Category Archives : Statistics


Q: Where Do Climate Models Fail? A: Almost Everywhere 3

“How much do I fail thee. Let me count the ways” Ben Santer’s latest model/observation comparison paper demonstrates that climate realists were right and climate models exaggerate warming: The multimodel average tropospheric temperature trends are outside the 5–95 percentile range of RSS results at most latitudes. Where do the models fail? 1. Significantly warmer than […]


Should the ABS take over the BoM? 2

I read an interesting article article about Peter Martin, head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. He has a refreshing, mature attitude to his job. ‘I want people to challenge our data – that’s a good thing, it helps us pick things up,’ he says. Big contrast to the attitude of Climate Scientists. Examples that […]


Two New Numerate Blogs 1

A couple of new entries in the links section: Sabermetric Research does it own sports research and reviews statistical studies of sports research. I added this after reading one of my Chrissy gifts – Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game – by Michael Lewis, now a movie starring Brad Pitt, a David vs […]


Sea level rise projections bias 12

Sea levels, recently updated with 10 new data-points, reinforce the hiatus described as a ‘pothole’ by Josh Willis of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., who says you can blame the pothole on the cycle of El Niño and La Niña in the Pacific: This temporary transfer of large volumes of water from the oceans […]

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Niche Modeling 2010 Roundup and Goodbye 5

Seth Godin, a blogger I admire greatly, suggests we publish a list of accomplishments for the year (What did you ship in 2010?). Peer-reviewed publication demonstrating that policy-makers are being misled by inadequate climate models. Hosted a venue for the “Watts Up With the Climate” Tour of Australia. Gave four public lectures on climate skepticism, […]


Warming in Antarctica – Who was right? 11

What did they say about warming in Antarctica? In a review by Professor Will Steffen, Australian National University, commissioned by the Department of Climate Change and a major input to Labor government policy advanced also by Senator Wong in her discussions with Senator Fielding: “Climate Change 2009: Faster Change & More Serious Risks” A recent […]


Happy Birthday Climategate! 17

As they used to say about the assassination of President Kennedy, “I remember where I was when I heard about it.” My first post a few days later was entitled Climategate. More was done in Climategate than in all the rebuttals of climate science alarmism that have been published. So many things have changed since […]


Altering the weather data 14

JN reports another study confirming the finding that alterations to Australian raw weather data have increased the official trend by over 30%. A recent submission to the arXiv archive suggests that altering the data to “inflate and dramatize weather conditions” may have a long tradition. The Weather and its Role in Captain Robert F. Scott […]


Climate model abuse 24

Roger Pielke Sr. reviews another very important new paper showing the abuse of models. In the opinion of the editor Kundzewicz (who has served prominently on the IPCC), climate models were only designed to provide a broad assessment of the response of the global climate system to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings, and to serve as […]


Drought predictions for this century 4

In The National Science Foundation Funds Multi-Decadal Climate Predictions Without An Ability To Verify Their Skill Roger Pielke Sr. links GCM skill at predicting drought with natural variation: 2. “Future efforts to predict drought will depend on models’ ability to predict tropical SSTs.” In other words, there is NO way to assess the skill of […]


Government Science 7

I’m seeing a few articles on Government-sponsored science lately that seem particularly applicable to the climate change research: A short review of Economic Laws of Scientific Research links to an overview of the area, particularly the Cato Institute Scientists may love government money, and politicians may love the power its expenditure confers upon them, but […]


Audit the BoM 4

Kenskingdom demonstrates again the wisdom of ‘trust, but verify': I compared the adjusted [Australian Temperature] data with the raw data of these 34 stations. Here are the results, and they are perplexing. * I was expecting to find a stronger warming trend in the urban data than the 100 non-urban sites. WRONG. * I was […]


Drought Paper Published 8

Published drought paper here and preprint here. Citation: Stockwell, David R.B., 2010. Critique of Drought Models in the Australian Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR), Energy & Environment, 21:5, 425-436, DOI:10.1260/0958-305X.21.5.425, Link:http://multi-science.metapress.com/content/L4870G0N8Q064377


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Queensland Drought Comparisons 20

In 2009, the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence prepared a series of reports detailing projected climate changes for 13 regions throughout Queensland. The reports provide a high-level summary of projected changes and an accessible overview of the potential impacts to a wide audience, including: # a tendency for less rainfall, particularly in central and […]


Projected future runoff of the Breede River under climate change 3

More evidence of worthless model predictions from CO2 Science: All of the future flow-rates calculated by Steynor et al. exhibited double-digit negative percentage changes that averaged -25% for one global climate model and -50% for another global climate model; and in like manner the mean past trend of four of Lloyd’s five stations was also […]


Long-time temperature variations in Portugal over the last 140 years and the effect of the solar activity 14

A recipe for more reliable climate correlations with solar factors – use long temperature records such as Portugal for 140 years (from 1865 to 2005). Another study showing around half of decadal to centennial variations in temperature can be attributed to Cosmic Ray Flux. Monthly averaged temperature series have been analyzed together with monthly North-Atlantic […]


CSIRO Mk3 Model Performance 4

On the comparisons of Climate Models from Douglass et al here is a table showing how well(?) the CSIRO Mark 3 model performed. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs. The raw data are from http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/papers/Published%20JOC1651.pdf […]


How Bad are the Models – UHI 3

Urban areas differ from rural areas in a number of well known ways, but the IPCC summaries maintain that these effects have been effectively removed when they talk about the recent (post 1960) increases in global surface temperature. Continuing the series on how bad climate models really are, another paper is in the pipeline on […]


High Quality Climate Data, Not! 9

Ken Stewart has released his much awaited review of the Australian High Quality Sites. His conclusion: The High Quality data does NOT give an accurate record of Australian temperatures over the last 100 years. BOM has produced a climate record that can only be described as a guess. The best we can say about Australian […]


Page-Proofs of the DECR Paper 7

Corrected the page-proofs of my drought paper today. CRITIQUE OF DROUGHT MODELS IN THE AUSTRALIAN DROUGHT EXCEPTIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES REPORT (DECR) ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the reliability of modeling in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) where global circulation (or climate) simulations were used to forecast future extremes of temperatures, rainfall and soil moisture. The DECR […]


Watts Tour at Emerald 1

Anthony’s Tour continues at a breakneck pace this week — with only four venues to go. The talks at Emerald that I organized went quite well, considering this is a small regional town. About 80-100 people attended an teaser session during the Property Rights Australia meeting during the day, and around 40 attended at night. […]