<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: Chaitén Eruption June</title>
	<atom:link href="http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/</link>
	<description>The power of numeracy</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 29 Jul 2010 16:43:16 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0</generator>
	<item>
		<title>By: admin</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/comment-page-1/#comment-131955</link>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2008 07:53:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/#comment-131955</guid>
		<description>Lucia, Also, I am developing the model only up to 1999, so your tests should be comparable and independent (to a degree).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lucia, Also, I am developing the model only up to 1999, so your tests should be comparable and independent (to a degree).</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: admin</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/comment-page-1/#comment-131635</link>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jun 2008 01:07:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/#comment-131635</guid>
		<description>Hi Lucia, the relationship with ozone is inverse in this model -- volcanic stability = higher O3 levels = lower surface temperatures.  This is the reversal of current view that ozone is a positive forcing agent.  This relationship is BTW supported by Miskolczi&#039;s HARTCODE line-by-line spectroscopic simulations.  

As to the rate, I only have rates of ozone recovery estimated from multi-variate regression fitting, but its very sensitve to what variables are included in the regression.
Of the order of -1-1.5C per century reduction in surface temperatures 
seem to come up as a result of accumulation of O3 under &#039;stable&#039; atmospheric conditions.
These are more rate balance equations, rather than &#039;accumulation&#039; but I
use accumulation just to give the general approach.

That is not to say that the current relatively warm temperatures 
that I attribute to 5 ultra-plinian eruptions in the last 150 years
are not subject to a more forceful return to a lower temperatures
through solar or some other equilibrating mechanism.  In this model, it would 
take another ultra-plinian eruption to force the surface temperatures
higher (after a short-term cooling).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Lucia, the relationship with ozone is inverse in this model &#8212; volcanic stability = higher O3 levels = lower surface temperatures.  This is the reversal of current view that ozone is a positive forcing agent.  This relationship is BTW supported by Miskolczi&#8217;s HARTCODE line-by-line spectroscopic simulations.  </p>
<p>As to the rate, I only have rates of ozone recovery estimated from multi-variate regression fitting, but its very sensitve to what variables are included in the regression.<br />
Of the order of -1-1.5C per century reduction in surface temperatures<br />
seem to come up as a result of accumulation of O3 under &#8216;stable&#8217; atmospheric conditions.<br />
These are more rate balance equations, rather than &#8216;accumulation&#8217; but I<br />
use accumulation just to give the general approach.</p>
<p>That is not to say that the current relatively warm temperatures<br />
that I attribute to 5 ultra-plinian eruptions in the last 150 years<br />
are not subject to a more forceful return to a lower temperatures<br />
through solar or some other equilibrating mechanism.  In this model, it would<br />
take another ultra-plinian eruption to force the surface temperatures<br />
higher (after a short-term cooling).</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: lucia</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/comment-page-1/#comment-131623</link>
		<dc:creator>lucia</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jun 2008 00:08:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/#comment-131623</guid>
		<description>Hi David-- 
Based on the current paper it looks like you need these volcanos to calm down to test the idea in the new paper? In the next one, will you be discussing where things go if they keep erupting? 

Anyway, if you get to the point of quantitative predictions, you know I&#039;ll compare to data. :)

Right now, it looks like you predict temperature going down, but there is an ozone caveat and you don&#039;t suggest a rate. ( I&#039;m asking to make sure I&#039;m understanding correctly.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi David&#8211;<br />
Based on the current paper it looks like you need these volcanos to calm down to test the idea in the new paper? In the next one, will you be discussing where things go if they keep erupting? </p>
<p>Anyway, if you get to the point of quantitative predictions, you know I&#8217;ll compare to data. <img src='http://landshape.org/enm/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>Right now, it looks like you predict temperature going down, but there is an ozone caveat and you don&#8217;t suggest a rate. ( I&#8217;m asking to make sure I&#8217;m understanding correctly.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: admin</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/comment-page-1/#comment-131406</link>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jun 2008 05:25:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/#comment-131406</guid>
		<description>Lucia, I am exploring a theory of climate chage produced by ultra-plinian volcanos right now.  Pages 12-13 of the &lt;a href=&quot;http://aig.org.au/assets/51/AIGnews_May08.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Australian Institute of Geologists Newsletter &lt;/a&gt; has an article I wrote exploring the possibility of surface temperatures being affected by stratospheric temperatures through a compensation mechanisms.  Thing is, the data suggest both cooling AND warming from large eruptions.  Probably do a post on this tomorrow.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lucia, I am exploring a theory of climate chage produced by ultra-plinian volcanos right now.  Pages 12-13 of the <a href="http://aig.org.au/assets/51/AIGnews_May08.pdf" rel="nofollow">Australian Institute of Geologists Newsletter </a> has an article I wrote exploring the possibility of surface temperatures being affected by stratospheric temperatures through a compensation mechanisms.  Thing is, the data suggest both cooling AND warming from large eruptions.  Probably do a post on this tomorrow.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: lucia</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/comment-page-1/#comment-131358</link>
		<dc:creator>lucia</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jun 2008 00:30:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/chaiten-eruption-june/#comment-131358</guid>
		<description>Oh no! This supports the theory that the earth is going to &lt;i&gt;explode&lt;/i&gt;! (See &lt;a href=&quot;http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/odd-theories-for-or-about-global-warming/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; the bizarre theories of warming&lt;/a&gt; I posted just as you were posting.  )

I&#039;d hardly call myself the first to note that volcanic activity affect the GMST. But, clearly, if stratospheric volcanos can affect the GMST, and the veiling remains in the sky for a long time, we expect to see big swings in 8 year trend while they erupt.  These are absent when they don&#039;t-- and that&#039;s how the data look.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh no! This supports the theory that the earth is going to <i>explode</i>! (See <a href="http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/odd-theories-for-or-about-global-warming/" rel="nofollow"> the bizarre theories of warming</a> I posted just as you were posting.  )</p>
<p>I&#8217;d hardly call myself the first to note that volcanic activity affect the GMST. But, clearly, if stratospheric volcanos can affect the GMST, and the veiling remains in the sky for a long time, we expect to see big swings in 8 year trend while they erupt.  These are absent when they don&#8217;t&#8211; and that&#8217;s how the data look.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>

<!-- Dynamic page generated in 0.378 seconds. -->
<!-- Cached page generated by WP-Super-Cache on 2010-07-30 13:45:11 -->
