The Intellectual Property card was played today so I cannot verify the statistical significance (or otherwise) of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report. But I found out enough about the statistical tests (performed after publication of the report due to my promptings) to determine that autocorrelation in the temperature series was probably not taken into account.

If this is the case, then it is highly likely the confidence intervals were grossly underestimated and so it is also likely that only one or two regions (SWWA) show statistically significant increase in predicted droughts, not 3 or 4 as claimed by the authors. I am more confident in my original assessment that the results show no significant increase in drought due to greenhouse warming in almost all regions of Australia

As an aside, it is normal practice, and in fact a requirement of publication in major scientific journals, that scientists document a good faith attempt to resolve points of contention prior to submitting a comment or request for correction. I think this is a good policy, as it avoids filling the literature with pointless disputes that could have been resolved between the disputants. Often the erring party issues a correction or withdraws the paper altogether (as Xian-Jin Li recently did with a faulty proof of the Riemann Hypothesis).

Drought Exceptional Circumstances funding is massive, so getting it right is very important. The client should be confident the interpretation of the results are free of researcher bias. Payments to farmers involve billions of tax-payer dollars and government has a duty of diligence to ensure policy is based on statistically sound information. Then there is the reputation of CSIRO (Australia’s NASA equivalent) and the public interest at stake.

To date I am very happy with Kevin’s promptness, and understand he may be constrained by CSIRO IP policy. If anyone has any specific information on this please let me know. However, my suspicions were raised when the report only quoted increases in mean values, and did not disclose whether these results were significant or not. His initial inquiry into my concerns did not reveal a problem. I am quite happy to be proved wrong on this, but I still think there is a problem. CSIRO data policy is not helping resolve the issue.

Below I requested the data used in previous tests and more details of the statistical tests used.

Dear Kevin,

Thank you for your explanation and summary of the results of your

significance tests. Sweeping other issues to the side, I would simply like to check the

significance of your results of increasing droughts in Australia. To do this I think

it would be sufficient to have:1. The individual 13 values for areal % used to obtain each of the

mean and extreme values in tables 4, 7 and 9.

2. The data you used in the significance tests you quote below.

Delimited text files are best.

3. A description of the method you used to determine your significance.I am assuming that the return period is a deterministic function of

areal % and so additional tests of significance will be redundant. If not, the respective data

for return period would also be of interest.The results you quote below were interesting and I would like to

resolve any conflicting results that arise.

I note that your quoted significances reconcile with your claims that

“more declarations would be likely, and over larger areas, in the SW,

SWWA and Vic&Tas regions, with little

detectable change in the other regions.”Many thanks in advance.

Dear David,

I’m not able to hand over the data from the 13 models, due to restrictions on Intellectual Property, but I can describe the methods used to determine statistical significance.

Dewi Kirono says:

Â· I have used a number of statistical tests (parametric and non-parametric) and found that most of them show agreement. I used the 5% significance level. One marginal case was the change in percentage area for exceptionally low rainfall in NSW, in which the T-test was insignificant at the 5% level while Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was significant 5% level. I feel the non-parametric test is more objective since it doesnâ€™t assume a Normal distribution.

Â· For the percentage area (temp, rain), the 13-model-mean sample is the 108 yr time series for 1900-2007 and the 31 yr time series for 2010-2040. For percentage area (soil moisture), the sample is the 50 yr time series for 1957-2006 and the same 50 yr time series modified for a period centred on 2030

Â· For the frequency (temp and rain), the sample is the number of models (13) as each period (i.e. 1900-2007 and 2010-2040) only produces one return period value.

Â· For soil moisture frequency, I cannot perform the test as we only have one value for the obs (1957-2006).

Â· At the moment Iâ€™ve only applied the tests to the “mean” data not the “90th” and 10th” percentiles. This is because we cannot do that for soil moisture and because we deal with lots of zero values for the 10th percentile.

Regards

Kevin Hennessy

I then asked for further clarification of how the statistical tests were performed,

and asked again for the data.

Further explanation of the statistical tests reveals that they consisted simply of comparison of the means

for two time periods, where % area in individual years were the single data points. This simple

test assumes the data points are independent, but due to autocorrelation is an unjustified assumption.

Failing to account for autocorrelation grossly overestimates the power of the test to detect significant

differences (see my post Scale Invariance for Dummies or Chapter 10 of my book). Also see the results of Breusch and Vahid 2008 from the Draft Garnaut Report (reviewed here), where t-test scores for rate of temperature increase dropped from more than 4 to less than 2 when autocorrelation was taken into account.

I don’t know the exact autocorrelation, as I can’t get the data, but the temperature and rainfall variables that produce it have very high autocorrelation (or ‘bursty’) behaviour, and so these data must inherit that character.

Dear David,

Answers to your questions are embedded in the email below.

Regards

Kevin Hennessy

—–Original Message—–

From: David Stockwell [mailto:davids99us@gmail.com]

Sent: Tuesday, 15 July 2008 10:37 AM

To: Hennessy, Kevin (CMAR, Aspendale)

Subject: Re: Exceptional circumstances report supplementary informationDear Kevin,

Thank you for relaying the description of the significance tests.

Just to be clear on what you did:

Was the standard deviation or the standard error of

the 13 model averages over the future periods used to determine

the significance of the decreasing areal % of rainfall and soil

moisture?

No. For rainfall and temperature, the tests were performed to assess

differences between means from two groups: group A (1900-2007) VS group

B (2010-2040) for temperature and rainfall. Thus, groups A and B had 108

and 31 data points, respectively. For soil moisture, group A (1957-2006)

and group B (50 yrs centred on 2030) both had 50 data points. We also

did a quick test of whether the results were sensitive to treating the

13 models separately or as multi-model means, and the answer is no.

Was the 108 yr time series for 1900-2007 one or 13 points?One point (N = 108). See above.

Was the 31 yr time series for 2010-2040 13 points and used to get the

SD?One point (N = 31). Yes.

Was a one or two-tailed t-test applied?Both. They suggest the same conclusions, either above or below the 5%

significance level.

IMO the 13 values of model predictions are summaries of output that

are necessary to make a determination of the quality of evidence in

your report. Whether they are covered by IP or not, it would be in

the best interests of science for you to allow them to be used in an

independent check.As you might be aware, using the minimal data provided in your report,

I determined that only one region showed significance for % area

exceptional low rainfall (SWWA) and only two areas showed

significance soil moisture (SWWA and Vic&Tas).http://landshape.org/enm/dought-exceptional-circumstances-review/

This is fewer than the 3 areas and 4 areas where you claim

significance (SW and NSW being the additional areas). I would like

to reconcile this difference and the quickest way would be for me to

check it with the data.

Thanks again for your cooperation up to this point, and I hope you

will reconsider your decision regarding the data.

As indicated in my previous email, we are not at liberty to distribute

the data due to IP limitations. We have checked our data and believe the

results and conclusions are correct.

Pingback: Mangled Thoughts » Scoop: Can the CSIRO explain an explosive contradiction? What is going on?

Pingback: CSIRO adopts Phil Jones’ Stonewall Tactic « Climate Audit

Pingback: sam waltonman

Pingback: iherb discount code

Pingback: iherb coupons

Pingback: iherb promo code

Pingback: nyc plastic surgeon

Pingback: iherb code

Pingback: My Homepage

Pingback: EscalateInternet.com

Pingback: Friv Games

Pingback: buy cialis

Pingback: Fidelity testing

Pingback: premature ejaculation yoga treatment

Pingback: Nikon D3200 Lowest price

Pingback: Baseball Fundraiser

Pingback: online shopping in india websites

Pingback: prostate cancer

Pingback: Start

Pingback: Car Buying Tips

Pingback: Health

Pingback: sizegenetics ultimate

Pingback: Finance

Pingback: somanabolic muscle maximizer

Pingback: Liberty

Pingback: mark cobb

Pingback: Trading

Pingback: Messenger

Pingback: Business

Pingback: iherb coupon

Pingback: weight loss supplements for women

Pingback: Camp

Pingback: tenis Bydgoszcz

Pingback: flyer size

Pingback: Tech

Pingback: Dallas Custom Wood Signs

Pingback: Miami bankruptcy lawyer

Pingback: School

Pingback: oil paintings

Pingback: Diindolylmethane

Pingback: clash of clans cheats

Pingback: Clothing

Pingback: clash of clans cheats

Pingback: San Antonio SEO Consultant

Pingback: middlemarch quotes explained

Pingback: alkaline water ionizer

Pingback: Go Here

Pingback: clash of clans hack

Pingback: MQL Programming

Pingback: interior design home office

Pingback: High Paying Commissions

Pingback: paleo recipe book review

Pingback: tobacco e-liquid

Pingback: sales

Pingback: Slotomania Free Coins 2013

Pingback: Financial

Pingback: wypoczynek nad morzem

Pingback: Pest Control Decatur, GA

Pingback: Medical Examination

Pingback: ballsymedia.com

Pingback: listen Pakistani songs online free

Pingback: air traffic controller

Pingback: Mynt Products

Pingback: Watch this video

Pingback: fat burning recipes

Pingback: love ladies birmingham al

Pingback: reviews, tiops and tricks and manuals for the best android apps and android smartphones Android App Review - LINE camera by LINE Corporation

Pingback: Free Facebook Likes

Pingback: LINK M88

Pingback: Plainfield IL Homes For Sale

Pingback: Florida SEO Sarasota

Pingback: fat loss diet plan

Pingback: kangen water machine

Pingback: pain management clinics houston

Pingback: immobilien thurgau

Pingback: muscle gaining secrets program

Pingback: duct cleaning houton

Pingback: secret money system review

Pingback: groom speech

Pingback: Economic development of African countries

Pingback: search engine marketing tampa

Pingback: laser lipo

Pingback: canon

Pingback: cheep hotels

Pingback: Best way to make money online

Pingback: clash of clans cheats

Pingback: clash of clans hack

Pingback: stargazer tinte online

Pingback: hollywood fashion style

Pingback: Party Supplies Shop

Pingback: how to promote etsy shop

Pingback: cleaning

Pingback: kangen alkaline water

Pingback: international

Pingback: berita hari ini

Pingback: read here

Pingback: Amddram

Pingback: Noclegi Wisla

Pingback: ligue des champions

Pingback: Weight Loss

Pingback: Rowery elektryczne

Pingback: trening bez sprzetu

Pingback: Bail

Pingback: Slotomania Free Coins Iphone

Pingback: Wp Weekend Phoenix

Pingback: important link is here

Pingback: gratis freespin

Pingback: Ontario

Pingback: men fashion wear

Pingback: homepage des autors besuchen

Pingback: Altieri Gilmore LLP Attorneys

Pingback: you could try this out

Pingback: best remodelers in Dallas

Pingback: Note 4

Pingback: wszytsko o lean marketingu

Pingback: drzwi przeciwpozarowe

Pingback: opakowania jubilerskie

Pingback: elblag noclegi

Pingback: hurtownie fryzjerskie

Pingback: gcsrdsmgkrnggkxrv

Pingback: 3d filament

Pingback: jak sie robi sushi

Pingback: biuro podatkowe kraków

Pingback: Auto Video Creator

Pingback: scmrgscvgxrfmgckg

Pingback: gdc home interiors

Pingback: how to print a banner in word

Pingback: online therapist for anxiety

Pingback: how do i know if i have premature ejaculation

Pingback: qzdcgzscbfsdgvvhid

Pingback: Bariatric Surgery

Pingback: Budget-friendly Shopping On-line

Pingback: Read More

Pingback: Web Site

Pingback: Denver DUI Attorneys

Pingback: gcrmgskrfhxfsxg

Pingback: expendables 3 movie download

Pingback: jobs at mcdonalds

Pingback: Legitimate online jobs

Pingback: gogol spain

Pingback: you could look here

Pingback: last longer sexually

Pingback: sizegenetics extender

Pingback: la verdad del sureste

Pingback: breaking news

Pingback: remxgxncbxvemdfchnf

Pingback: food allergy symptoms

Pingback: her response

Pingback: Dog Training System

Pingback: Recommended Reading

Pingback: houston dentist

Pingback: lucid dreaming

Pingback: The Expendables 3 for free

Pingback: www.torrentz.com free download The Expendables 3

Pingback: how to stop yourself from premature ejaculation

Pingback: Political blog

Pingback: click over here

Pingback: Frontline Commando 2 hack free download

Pingback: dormitorios

Pingback: T-Shirt Advertising

Pingback: mazda

Pingback: free horror The Expendables 3 download

Pingback: games to buy online

Pingback: 4 weeks loans

Pingback: Coil covers and housing

Pingback: lawyer

Pingback: sign services

Pingback: diagwnismos

Pingback: antalya escort

Pingback: billig sexleksak

Pingback: Harman IT

Pingback: Oakley sunglasses

Pingback: kargo

Pingback: warehouse for rent in miami

Pingback: Flashwireless.com

Pingback: fuck

Pingback: what is a va loan Lawrenceville

Pingback: paddle hair brush

Pingback: mexican women

Pingback: buy instagram likes fast

Pingback: Ultrasonic

Pingback: katalog stron

Pingback: shopping

Pingback: Demir Leather

Pingback: Bitcoin

Pingback: toenail fungus raised nail

Pingback: ms88cn

Pingback: paleo recipe book

Pingback: lovelady center book

Pingback: privacy pop tent

Pingback: Hot Offer from bangladesh

Pingback: india news latest

Pingback: Best slimming ebook

Pingback: Graduates

Pingback: 3gp телефон Неудержимые 3 бесплатно скачать

Pingback: dimokratiki

Pingback: Velvet Seferovic

Pingback: love

Pingback: catch a cheater

Pingback: Erick Kiesz

Pingback: helping blind dogs

Pingback: Companies In United States

Pingback: seo

Pingback: weight loss camp

Pingback: here

Pingback: commercial collections houston

Pingback: sanook

Pingback: It Support Durham

Pingback: Kannada

Pingback: FX Education & training

Pingback: game

Pingback: Dating Love

Pingback: Colombia

Pingback: cigars online

Pingback: buy organic chicken

Pingback: how to build green homes

Pingback: Sukneles

Pingback: online continuing education courses

Pingback: cuban cigars

Pingback: cuban cigar

Pingback: cigars switzerland

Pingback: buy cigars online

Pingback: Reverse Phone Lookup

Pingback: find out here

Pingback: Here

Pingback: premature ejaculation herbal treatment

Pingback: hair system replacement

Pingback: sky uk ccam server

Pingback: YEPI 123

Pingback: CLASH OF CLANS GEMS HACK

Pingback: beach body coaches

Pingback: blog www

Pingback: mazda car dealer

Pingback: frau befriedigen

Pingback: science tutor delhi bangalore

Pingback: ohare hyundai

Pingback: dealer volkswagen

Pingback: podiatrists

Pingback: eye appointment

Pingback: For Sale By Owner Baltimore MD

Pingback: used crossfit equipment

Pingback: bets10

Pingback: pest control houston

Pingback: best dog training collar

Pingback: IT Support

Pingback: meat products

Pingback: sausage dishes

Pingback: koszt sms

Pingback: rolety mini

Pingback: Whatsapp Hack Conversation

Pingback: fragrance

Pingback: Cialis

Pingback: szkolenia bhp

Pingback: projektowanie wnetrz kraków

Pingback: tworzenie stron www lódz

Pingback: Limitless Living

Pingback: online slots real money

Pingback: izmir escort

Pingback: How To Become A Successful Affiliate

Pingback: buy facebook likes

Pingback: sinema izle

Pingback: buy adderall xr

Pingback: cash for gold

Pingback: Work at From Home

Pingback: Home Page

Pingback: I found review here

Pingback: Soccer

Pingback: plum lipstick

Pingback: Pest Control Houston Texas

Pingback: ??? ???? ???? ??? 1 ????? ?????

Pingback: visit web page

Pingback: creamery for sale

Pingback: teen dating

Pingback: emotional intelligence training

Pingback: driving theory test uk rules

Pingback: esporradela facial

Pingback: Seoagency.co.id Konsultan Jasa SEO

Pingback: giochi di cucina gratis

Pingback: kitchen utensils

Pingback: recommanded cheat

Pingback: livejasmin hack avis

Pingback: kitchen fitters barnsley south yorkshire

Pingback: trending on instagram

Pingback: download cheat

Pingback: fathers rights

Pingback: Rentoboende Städhjälp

Pingback: hearthstone arena guide

Pingback: web agency perth

Pingback: Redirected

Pingback: banana blue

Pingback: How to Make Money Online

Pingback: web agency perth

Pingback: perth web design

Pingback: uncontested divorce

Pingback: xylitol sweets

Pingback: loyal 9 marketing

Pingback: weight loss blog

Pingback: Lucy

Pingback: hecigarette review

Pingback: click here

Pingback: donice drewniane

Pingback: Livejasmin Credits Hack no survey

Pingback: software billing system

Pingback: polecam

Pingback: Go paperless for only ?39/Month

Pingback: mobile atm hire

Pingback: Fun88.Com

Pingback: andrzej grodzki kartuzy

Pingback: jakarta hotels

Pingback: M88

Pingback: Social Media Marketing Services

Pingback: link spam

Pingback: andalemexico

Pingback: Aletha Casoria

Pingback: Cheap Christian Jewelry

Pingback: Truffles

Pingback: Johnie Dagen

Pingback: digital signage advertising

Pingback: zqazesxctyguhnkntgc

Pingback: weight loss pills that work

Pingback: fgfjgjhgfjhdfhjgjhgjl

Pingback: triple string bikini

Pingback: szkola makijazu

Pingback: vbmnxcbahgeugnvd

Pingback: ??

Pingback: Orlando

Pingback: strona firmy

Pingback: Tacori

Pingback: iphone 3g unlock

Pingback: ip6 plus unlock

Pingback: Legacy Food Storage Products

Pingback: esxrtgvbijnmuntfcyg

Pingback: rower treningowy

Pingback: Dating Services Pokrov

Pingback: lava rapido a seco delivery

Pingback: increase traffic

Pingback: Additional Info

Pingback: wzxecruhnmikbrxse