DECR Review Series

Posts over the next few weeks will be updates on the status of reviews myself and others have initiated of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR), by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

It is prudent to subject your views to the rigors of peer review. It is the way to knowledge to search out feedback. So I thought why not share the opportunity with others, so can avail themselves of the wisdom of the leading experts, to learn and formulate their own opinion, not only about the DECR itself, the support for increasing drought due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW) from climate models, and the standard of scholarship in climate science.

This series is also a case study in the scientific review process, for examining such issues as the degree to which peers in climate science provide an objective assessment of submissions. I want to stress that, irrespective of differences of opinion, I am deeply grateful for feedback from experts who have spent many years studying the subject matter. It is for that reason, I always analyze the comments of the expert reviewers very carefully for accuracy, as I take on board every worthwhile recommendation.

Below for easy reference are some links to information, data and opinion to date:

The BoM Website listing of the report and selection of intermediate data, used in the analyses.

The Drought Exceptional Circumstances report as downloaded.

DECR: Under the high scenario, EC declarations would likely be triggered about twice as often and over twice the area in all regions.

The Press release from the client organization, DAFF.

Australia could experience drought twice as often and the events will be twice as severe within 20 to 30 years, according to a new Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report.

The article.pdf, a first examination of the data by D Stockwell.

Therefore there is no credible basis for the claims of increasing frequency of Exceptional Circumstances declarations made in the report.

An online opinion piece, by Ian Castles

The recent CSIRO/BOM ‘Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report’ was accepted by government with no external scrutiny: public policy should be made based on this?

Another online opinion piece by Ian Castles.

On July 6, 2008 Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told viewers of the ABC Insiders TV program of the “very disturbing” findings of a study by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, including that “when it comes to exceptional or extreme drought, exceptionally high temperatures, the historical assumption that this occurred once every 20 years has now been revised down to between every one and two years.”