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According to a new U.N. report, the global warming outlook is much worse than originally predicted. Which is pretty bad when they originally predicted it would destroy the planet — Jay Leno

My position is that anthropogenic global warming is an artifact of dodgy modeling and statistics. All of my publications discrediting extreme claims have been vindicated. (Many more claims of AGW have been discredited, these are just mine.)

2004 Massive Extinctions

Extinction Risk from Climate Change by Chris Thomas et al.. predicted “that 37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be committed to extinction.”

Vindication: Stephen Williams, coauthor of the Thomas paper and Director for the Center for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change admitted.

Many unknowns remain in projecting extinctions, and the values provided in Thomas et al. (2004) should not be taken as precise predictions.

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2006 Hockey Stick

‘Exceptional’ 20th century warming from tree-ring proxies modeled via the screening process in Australian Institute of Geoscientists News shows a hockey stick shape even when using random numbers (with serial correlation).

Vindication: Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick published in February 2009 a comment, cited my AIG article, in a criticism of an article by Michael Mann. The response by Michael Mann acknowledged such screening was common, and used in their reconstructions.

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2007 More Sensitive Climate

Rahmstorf et al. 2007 raised concerns that the climate system, and in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.

Vindication: Rahmstorf admits on RealClimate:

In hindsight, the averaging period of 11 years that we used in the 2007 Science paper was too short to determine a robust climate trend. The 2-sigma error of an 11-year trend is about +/- 0.2 ºC, i.e. as large as the trend itself. Therefore, an 11-year trend is still strongly affected by interannual variability (i.e. weather).

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2008 More Extreme Droughts

The CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship produced a Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR), suggesting among other things that droughts would double in Australia in the coming decades.

  • Paper in review at International Journal of Forecasting.

Vindication: Former Head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Ian Castles solicited a review by ANU independent Accredited Statisticians, Brewer and Other. They concurred that models in the DECR required validation (along with other interesting points).

Dr Stockwell has argued that the GCMs should be subject to testing of their adequacy using historical or external data. We agree that this should be undertaken as a matter of course by all modelers. It is not clear from the DECR whether or not any such validation analyses have been undertaken by CSIRO/BoM. If they have, we urge CSIRO/BoM make the results available so that readers can make their own judgments as to the accuracy of the forecasts. If they have not, we urge them to undertake some.

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2009 Positive Water Vapor Feedback

Dessler estimates water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations. The propagation of uncertainty through Dessler et als. equation finds the method unreliable.

  • Paper in review at GRL.

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2009 Internal Variability

Easterling & Wehner (2009) claim that describing global temperatures since 1998 as declining is ‘cherry picking’. The Chow test for structural breaks find a major regime shift occurred in 1997, statistically justifying the use of 1997 as a starting point for temperature trends.

Vindication: Swanson and Tsonis update their paper on periodic fluctuations in ocean temperature as a coupled complex system, finding a major regime-shift around 2002, consistent with our finding.

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2009 Sea Level Acceleration

  • Paper in preparation

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