http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0905/0905.4693.pdf

What we really do know about the gross relationship between Bond albedo, the solar constant and the greenhouse effect is well known and is as follows:

The net power deposited in the terrestrial atmosphere and surface depends on the solar irradiance and the Earth’s short-wavelength (0.15–4.9 microns) albedo

Pin=CRe^2(1-A)

where C is the solar constant (adjusted for the Sun-Earth distance, i.e. TSI), Re is the Earth’s radius, and A is the short-wavelength Bond albedo (the amount of sunlight reflected back to space by the atmosphere and surface of the Earth). Subsequently, the short-wavelength, incoming power is re-radiated back into space at thermal or long-wavelengths (peaks near ~10–15 microns), where

Pout=4Re^2σTtoa^4

where σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant and Ttoa (~255 K) is the effective temperature of the Earth (defined with unit emissivity). Ttoa is a physically averaged long-wave emission temperature at about 5.5 km height in the atmosphere (this “top of the atmosphere’’ or “toa’’ temperature depends on wavelength and cloud cover; altitudes from 0 to 30 km contribute to this emission). One can relate that temperature to a more relevant global climate parameter like the globally averaged surface temperature Tsurf by introducing a greenhouse forcing parameter G [W/m2], which is defined as the difference between the emission at the surface and the top of the atmosphere (OLR). The forcing G increases with an increasing concentration of greenhouse gasses. After Raval and Ramanathan (1989), one can define the normalized greenhouse effect g as g=G/σTsurf^4. Then the outgoing power can be written as

Pout=4Re^2σ(1-g)Tsurf^4

If the planet is in radiative equilibrium, Pin=Pout, then we have

Tsurf^4=C(1-A)/4σ(1-g)

This means that the Bond albedo, together with solar irradiance and the greenhouse effect, directly controls the Earth’s temperature. Global warming would result if either A decreased or g or C increased.

How are changes in cosmic ray flux which may or may not have a big effect on nucleation of low cloud going to overcome the enormous power of the total solar irradiance (C) (or TSI) to vary albedo – which is controlled simply via OLR = C(1-A)/4.

This is especially puzzling in a warm state interglacial world where there is a lot of photautotrophic biological activity going on, busily pumping oodles of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) into the lower troposphere?

In my view, for any fixed value of C (TSI), the relationship between Bond Albedo and surface temperature is a big lazy S type curve with only a relatively small zone of (linear) inflection at any metastable state where the albedo may be stabilized by the supply of CCN (presently biogenic and anthropogenic in my view).

For those familiar with a sort of extended Miskolczian nomenclature it looks something rather like this:

http://jump.fm/IOWFF

I think we have to be very, very careful with the use or misuse of ice core 10Be data as a supposed proxy for cosmic ray flux because it has been shown that it is very much a function of the overall dust content of the ice and should probably be normalized against sulfate content at the very least due to volcanic dust flux.

Simple variation in TSI is the most likely cause of glacial Terminations.