Comments on: Disproving Global Warming http://landshape.org/enm/disproving-global-warming/ The Power of Numeracy Wed, 16 May 2012 18:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: davids99us http://landshape.org/enm/disproving-global-warming/#comment-1135 davids99us Thu, 21 Jan 2010 09:04:02 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3511#comment-1135 You raise a lot of good points. On Taleb, I find nothing novel, buthis warnings that confirmation bias, the expert problem, epistemiccertainty etc are dangerous, and we need to be calling it out when wesee it, is a refreshing influence. You raise a lot of good points. On Taleb, I find nothing novel, buthis warnings that confirmation bias, the expert problem, epistemiccertainty etc are dangerous, and we need to be calling it out when wesee it, is a refreshing influence.

]]> By: davids99us http://landshape.org/enm/disproving-global-warming/#comment-1137 davids99us Thu, 21 Jan 2010 08:44:59 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3511#comment-1137 Thanks for the research John. Thanks for the research John.

]]> By: John M http://landshape.org/enm/disproving-global-warming/#comment-1136 John M Thu, 21 Jan 2010 07:52:47 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3511#comment-1136 "Predictions" tend to be for time frames that are untestable, usually around 40 years out. Close enough to be scary, but to far out for anyone to be held accountable. Occasionally, someone is fool enough to cut the prediction short a bit, like Hansen's "scenarios". In that case, the argument resorts to "the science has advanced" or "but the error bars, consider the error bars!"But anyway, as David says, ex post facto seems to work too.<a href="http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/10/drought-in-southern-australia-declared-worst-on-record/" rel="nofollow">http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/10/drought-i...</a>"David Jones, the head of climate analysis at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the drought affecting south-west Western Australia, south-east South Australia, Victoria and northern Tasmania “is now very severe and without historical precedent”."<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/the-drying-up-of-hope/story-e6frg6z6-1111117826337" rel="nofollow">http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/t...</a>"Jones argues that "it is very difficult to make a case that this is just simply a run of bad luck driven by a natural cycle and that a return to more normal rainfall is inevitable"."<a href="http://globalclimatechangeaction.org/node/50" rel="nofollow">http://globalclimatechangeaction.org/node/50</a>""Climate change is real, its effects are happening now in many forms," visiting expert Stuart Rosewarne, senior lecturer in economics at Sydney University, said yesterday. Dr Rosewarne said many effects were already having an impact on Tasmania and yesterday's seminar heard the more populated areas and major agricultural and farming regions would be hardest hit. "The drought that is being experienced in Tasmania at the moment is very much shaped by global warming," he said." “Predictions” tend to be for time frames that are untestable, usually around 40 years out. Close enough to be scary, but to far out for anyone to be held accountable. Occasionally, someone is fool enough to cut the prediction short a bit, like Hansen's “scenarios”. In that case, the argument resorts to “the science has advanced” or “but the error bars, consider the error bars!”But anyway, as David says, ex post facto seems to work too.http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/10/drought-i…“David Jones, the head of climate analysis at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the drought affecting south-west Western Australia, south-east South Australia, Victoria and northern Tasmania “is now very severe and without historical precedent”.”http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/t…“Jones argues that “it is very difficult to make a case that this is just simply a run of bad luck driven by a natural cycle and that a return to more normal rainfall is inevitable”.”http://globalclimatechangeaction.org/node/50“”Climate change is real, its effects are happening now in many forms,” visiting expert Stuart Rosewarne, senior lecturer in economics at Sydney University, said yesterday. Dr Rosewarne said many effects were already having an impact on Tasmania and yesterday's seminar heard the more populated areas and major agricultural and farming regions would be hardest hit. “The drought that is being experienced in Tasmania at the moment is very much shaped by global warming,” he said.”

]]> By: Romanoz http://landshape.org/enm/disproving-global-warming/#comment-1134 Romanoz Thu, 21 Jan 2010 05:31:55 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3511#comment-1134 There was an article in the Harvard Business Review many years ago about astrology, forecasting and strategic planning. The author made the observation that the main point about these methods was not the accuracy of their predictions but that they provided an illusion of certainty which induces people to act in an environment of uncertainity. In most situations it doesnt matter what one does, its important that one acts. Dr Who flipping a coin to decide which way to go is my best image of this. Then it becomes a process of step-wise refinement or muddling through. I disagree with Taleb who believes that we appear to have become addicts of casuality, finding causation everywhere. I believe our problem is that we have become hyper-active, at least the left side of politics have, and therefore appear to have this need to "do" something therefore Howard was a "do nothing" PM, the Republicans are "nihilists" - opposed to the hyperactive Obama - "Yes we can". Yes we can do what? It doesnt appear to matter, he promises to do. There was an article in the Harvard Business Review many years ago about astrology, forecasting and strategic planning. The author made the observation that the main point about these methods was not the accuracy of their predictions but that they provided an illusion of certainty which induces people to act in an environment of uncertainity. In most situations it doesnt matter what one does, its important that one acts. Dr Who flipping a coin to decide which way to go is my best image of this. Then it becomes a process of step-wise refinement or muddling through. I disagree with Taleb who believes that we appear to have become addicts of casuality, finding causation everywhere. I believe our problem is that we have become hyper-active, at least the left side of politics have, and therefore appear to have this need to “do” something therefore Howard was a “do nothing” PM, the Republicans are “nihilists” – opposed to the hyperactive Obama – “Yes we can”. Yes we can do what? It doesnt appear to matter, he promises to do.

]]> By: Anonymous http://landshape.org/enm/disproving-global-warming/#comment-12124 Anonymous Thu, 21 Jan 2010 04:04:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3511#comment-12124 You raise a lot of good points. On Taleb, I find nothing novel, but his warnings that confirmation bias, the expert problem, epistemic certainty etc are dangerous, and we need to be calling it out when we see it, is a refreshing influence. You raise a lot of good points. On Taleb, I find nothing novel, but
his warnings that confirmation bias, the expert problem, epistemic
certainty etc are dangerous, and we need to be calling it out when we
see it, is a refreshing influence.

]]> By: Anonymous http://landshape.org/enm/disproving-global-warming/#comment-12123 Anonymous Thu, 21 Jan 2010 03:44:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3511#comment-12123 Thanks for the research John. Thanks for the research John.

]]> By: davids99us http://landshape.org/enm/disproving-global-warming/#comment-1133 davids99us Thu, 21 Jan 2010 03:04:02 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3511#comment-1133 You raise a lot of good points. On Taleb, I find nothing novel, buthis warnings that confirmation bias, the expert problem, epistemiccertainty etc are dangerous, and we need to be calling it out when wesee it, is a refreshing influence. You raise a lot of good points. On Taleb, I find nothing novel, buthis warnings that confirmation bias, the expert problem, epistemiccertainty etc are dangerous, and we need to be calling it out when wesee it, is a refreshing influence.

]]> By: John M http://landshape.org/enm/disproving-global-warming/#comment-12122 John M Thu, 21 Jan 2010 02:52:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3511#comment-12122 "Predictions" tend to be for time frames that are untestable, usually around 40 years out. Close enough to be scary, but to far out for anyone to be held accountable. Occasionally, someone is fool enough to cut the prediction short a bit, like Hansen's "scenarios". In that case, the argument resorts to "the science has advanced" or "but the error bars, consider the error bars!" But anyway, as David says, ex post facto seems to work too. http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/10/drought-in-southern-australia-declared-worst-on-record/ "David Jones, the head of climate analysis at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the drought affecting south-west Western Australia, south-east South Australia, Victoria and northern Tasmania “is now very severe and without historical precedent”." http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/the-drying-up-of-hope/story-e6frg6z6-1111117826337 "Jones argues that "it is very difficult to make a case that this is just simply a run of bad luck driven by a natural cycle and that a return to more normal rainfall is inevitable"." http://globalclimatechangeaction.org/node/50 ""Climate change is real, its effects are happening now in many forms," visiting expert Stuart Rosewarne, senior lecturer in economics at Sydney University, said yesterday. Dr Rosewarne said many effects were already having an impact on Tasmania and yesterday's seminar heard the more populated areas and major agricultural and farming regions would be hardest hit. "The drought that is being experienced in Tasmania at the moment is very much shaped by global warming," he said." “Predictions” tend to be for time frames that are untestable, usually around 40 years out. Close enough to be scary, but to far out for anyone to be held accountable. Occasionally, someone is fool enough to cut the prediction short a bit, like Hansen’s “scenarios”. In that case, the argument resorts to “the science has advanced” or “but the error bars, consider the error bars!”

But anyway, as David says, ex post facto seems to work too.

http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/10/drought-in-southern-australia-declared-worst-on-record/

“David Jones, the head of climate analysis at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the drought affecting south-west Western Australia, south-east South Australia, Victoria and northern Tasmania “is now very severe and without historical precedent”.”

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/the-drying-up-of-hope/story-e6frg6z6-1111117826337

“Jones argues that “it is very difficult to make a case that this is just simply a run of bad luck driven by a natural cycle and that a return to more normal rainfall is inevitable”.”

http://globalclimatechangeaction.org/node/50

“”Climate change is real, its effects are happening now in many forms,” visiting expert Stuart Rosewarne, senior lecturer in economics at Sydney University, said yesterday.

Dr Rosewarne said many effects were already having an impact on Tasmania and yesterday’s seminar heard the more populated areas and major agricultural and farming regions would be hardest hit.

“The drought that is being experienced in Tasmania at the moment is very much shaped by global warming,” he said.”

]]> By: davids99us http://landshape.org/enm/disproving-global-warming/#comment-1132 davids99us Thu, 21 Jan 2010 02:44:59 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3511#comment-1132 Thanks for the research John. Thanks for the research John.

]]> By: John M http://landshape.org/enm/disproving-global-warming/#comment-1131 John M Thu, 21 Jan 2010 01:52:47 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3511#comment-1131 "Predictions" tend to be for time frames that are untestable, usually around 40 years out. Close enough to be scary, but to far out for anyone to be held accountable. Occasionally, someone is fool enough to cut the prediction short a bit, like Hansen's "scenarios". In that case, the argument resorts to "the science has advanced" or "but the error bars, consider the error bars!"But anyway, as David says, ex post facto seems to work too.<a href="http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/10/drought-in-southern-australia-declared-worst-on-record/" rel="nofollow">http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/10/drought-i...</a>"David Jones, the head of climate analysis at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the drought affecting south-west Western Australia, south-east South Australia, Victoria and northern Tasmania “is now very severe and without historical precedent”."<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/the-drying-up-of-hope/story-e6frg6z6-1111117826337" rel="nofollow">http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/t...</a>"Jones argues that "it is very difficult to make a case that this is just simply a run of bad luck driven by a natural cycle and that a return to more normal rainfall is inevitable"."<a href="http://globalclimatechangeaction.org/node/50" rel="nofollow">http://globalclimatechangeaction.org/node/50</a>""Climate change is real, its effects are happening now in many forms," visiting expert Stuart Rosewarne, senior lecturer in economics at Sydney University, said yesterday. Dr Rosewarne said many effects were already having an impact on Tasmania and yesterday's seminar heard the more populated areas and major agricultural and farming regions would be hardest hit. "The drought that is being experienced in Tasmania at the moment is very much shaped by global warming," he said." “Predictions” tend to be for time frames that are untestable, usually around 40 years out. Close enough to be scary, but to far out for anyone to be held accountable. Occasionally, someone is fool enough to cut the prediction short a bit, like Hansen's “scenarios”. In that case, the argument resorts to “the science has advanced” or “but the error bars, consider the error bars!”But anyway, as David says, ex post facto seems to work too.http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/10/drought-i…“David Jones, the head of climate analysis at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the drought affecting south-west Western Australia, south-east South Australia, Victoria and northern Tasmania “is now very severe and without historical precedent”.”http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/t…“Jones argues that “it is very difficult to make a case that this is just simply a run of bad luck driven by a natural cycle and that a return to more normal rainfall is inevitable”.”http://globalclimatechangeaction.org/node/50“”Climate change is real, its effects are happening now in many forms,” visiting expert Stuart Rosewarne, senior lecturer in economics at Sydney University, said yesterday. Dr Rosewarne said many effects were already having an impact on Tasmania and yesterday's seminar heard the more populated areas and major agricultural and farming regions would be hardest hit. “The drought that is being experienced in Tasmania at the moment is very much shaped by global warming,” he said.”

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