It was described by the ABC and Agriculture Minister Tony Burke as like â€œa disaster novelâ€, but a simple test shows the drought predictions are not statistically significant, apart for the SW of Western Australia. The conclusions should read:

“Despite the significant increase in exceptional temperatures to 2050, apart for SWWA the modelling predicted no significant increase in areas experiencing exceptionally low rainfall or soil moisture.”

The Exceptional Circumstances Report models changes in the areal extent and frequency of exceptionally high temperatures, low rainfall

and low soil moisture for seven Australian regions. It is predicting a doubling of drought declarations from reduction in rainfall and soil moisture across much of Australia’s farming regions.

First there was confusion over the release and a hurried re-edit, recorded here.

The supplementary data for the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Review did not

contain the data from the 13 climate model predictions.

Despite this, it is possible to estimate the 95% confidence intervals, and evaluate the statistical significance of the results.

Tabulated below are the data from tables 4, 7 and 9, the percentage area affected by exceptionally low soil moisture, rainfall and temperatures. The caption for the soil table is as follows:

Table 9: Simulated percentage area having exceptionally

low annual-average soil moisture for 1957-2006 and 50

years centred on 2030, based on 13 climate models.The

low and high scenarios represent the lowest and highest

ten per cent of the range of model results.

As the high and low scenarios are an average of the low and high 10% of model results, these would be approximately equal to the 95% confidence intervals. So, assuming the observed historic value (over a range of years) is equivalent to a realization of a model result, (the Gavin Schmidt assumption) significance occurs if the observed value lies outside the modeled range. The next three columns show the 95% CI interval, as the average of high and low interval, the difference between the observed value (O) and the predicted value (P), and the significance at the 95% level.

Almost all regions (SWWA is the exception) show no significant change in % area of exceptionally low soil moisture and low rainfall. Exceptional temperature is significant in all regions, but is not an indicator of drought.

The lack of significance of the results contradicts the conclusions of the report, lower rainfall and soil moisture and more drought.

Observed (O) | Low | Mean (P) | High | 95% CI | Diff. O-P | Significant | |

SOIL MOISTURE | |||||||

Qld | 6.5 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | FALSE |

NSW | 6.3 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 10 | 2.75 | 0.8 | FALSE |

Vic&Tas | 6.6 | 7 | 11 | 15.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | TRUE |

SW | 6.2 | 6 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 2.65 | 2.3 | FALSE |

NW | 6.3 | 4.4 | 7 | 10 | 2.8 | 0.7 | FALSE |

MDB | 6.2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | FALSE |

SWWA | 6.1 | 12.8 | 15.9 | 20 | 3.6 | 9.8 | TRUE |

RAINFALL | |||||||

Qld | 5.5 | 1.7 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 4 | 0.3 | FALSE |

NSW | 5.6 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 10.9 | 4.35 | 0 | FALSE |

Vic&Tas | 5.4 | 3 | 9.7 | 13.9 | 5.45 | 4.3 | FALSE |

SW | 5.6 | 5 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 3.55 | 2.8 | FALSE |

NW | 5.6 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 8 | 3.1 | -0.3 | FALSE |

MDB | 5.6 | 2.7 | 6 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 0.4 | FALSE |

SWWA | 5.5 | 9 | 18.4 | 26.5 | 8.75 | 12.9 | TRUE |

TEMPERATURE | |||||||

Qld | 4.6 | 48.9 | 62.2 | 73.8 | 12.45 | 57.6 | TRUE |

NSW | 4.5 | 43.5 | 62.1 | 81 | 18.75 | 57.6 | TRUE |

Vic&Tas | 4.6 | 60.5 | 76.1 | 95 | 17.25 | 71.5 | TRUE |

SW | 4.6 | 49.1 | 68.4 | 86.3 | 18.6 | 63.8 | TRUE |

NW | 4.6 | 50 | 63.5 | 82 | 16 | 58.9 | TRUE |

MDB | 4.5 | 45.2 | 64.9 | 90.1 | 22.45 | 60.4 | TRUE |

SWWA | 4.6 | 63.1 | 81.9 | 97.1 | 17 | 77.3 | TRUE |

Two ways the report biased the results are as follows:

1. No statistical significances were quoted, only averages. That way, insignificantly small increases in averages could be interpreted as increases in droughts. As far as I know, political correctness has not released scientists from the responsibility to disclose when their results are not significant — or has it?

2. The 10% of high model results were treated as high scenarios. From the methods section:

Low, mean and high

scenarios are given, where the mean is the 13-

model average, and the low and high scenarios are

the lowest and highest 10% of the range of model

results, respectively.

That is, variation between different climate models was treated as equivalent to differing climate change scenarios, such as different levels of CO2 emission. That way, the high statistical tail results could imply even more disastrous scenarios. So far as I can see, the two have no relationship to each other.

Hmm… disaster novel or just a disaster?

Pingback: Niche Modeling » Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report MIA

Pingback: Rainfall Drought Index | Niche Modeling

Pingback: sam waltonman

Pingback: free background checks

Pingback: iherb coupon

Pingback: iherb coupon code

Pingback: for more information

Pingback: clik here to enter your most recent password

Pingback: Slot Machine

Pingback: Action Games

Pingback: Homepage

Pingback: buy cialis

Pingback: treatment for premature ejaculation uk

Pingback: Effective Marketing Tools

Pingback: Fund Raising

Pingback: hindi movie jab jab phool khile

Pingback: practicing urologist

Pingback: Start

Pingback: tenant screening

Pingback: Health

Pingback: linear actuators

Pingback: Finance

Pingback: Liberty

Pingback: licence refrencement mulhouse

Pingback: mark cobb

Pingback: kolikkopelit netissÃ¤

Pingback: hairy anus

Pingback: iherb coupons

Pingback: ionized water

Pingback: york

Pingback: Business

Pingback: iherb coupon code

Pingback: Camp

Pingback: pizamy dzieciece

Pingback: château

Pingback: Opzioni Binarie

Pingback: license number free

Pingback: clash of clans cheats

Pingback: Tech

Pingback: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=air.com.mysweet.dog

Pingback: clash of clans hack

Pingback: achat tadalafil

Pingback: clash of clans cheats

Pingback: School

Pingback: Diindolylmethane

Pingback: We Buy Houses in Old Saybrook, CT

Pingback: clash of clans hack

Pingback: Clothing

Pingback: clash of clans hack

Pingback: water ionizer comparison

Pingback: gu10 led bulb

Pingback: click here for more

Pingback: pressure cooked eggs

Pingback: metatrader ea programming

Pingback: Coin Buyers

Pingback: imaginative traveler

Pingback: kangen water

Pingback: was ist kratom

Pingback: what do you think

Pingback: how to last longer running

Pingback: latest Pakistani songs

Pingback: Mynt Products

Pingback: Audio

Pingback: Learn More

Pingback: lovelady center website

Pingback: UK signup bonuses

Pingback: Free Website Traffic

Pingback: LINK M88

Pingback: loans installment

Pingback: Houses For Sale in Wheaton IL

Pingback: coffee enema

Pingback: kangen water ionizer

Pingback: grimms fairy tales glass house

Pingback: frameless doors houston

Pingback: backpacking thailand

Pingback: Tecumseh

Pingback: blucarpet.com

Pingback: secret money system review

Pingback: liposuction cost

Pingback: lamp shades

Pingback: social media management

Pingback: ejacutrol premature ejaculation pills

Pingback: acn?

Pingback: fat burning meals

Pingback: Ramadhan Buffet Casa Ombak

Pingback: ebay japan

Pingback: alkaline water machine

Pingback: française

Pingback: foods that burn fat fast

Pingback: ligue des champions

Pingback: autogaz poznan

Pingback: Property By Owner List Foreclosed Real Estate Jacksonville FL

Pingback: napedy do bram przemyslowych

Pingback: Bail