Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report MIA

The Drought Exceptional Circumstances report has been released (and reviewed here). The ABC described it thusly: “A new report is predicting a dramatic loss of soil moisture,
increased evaporation and reduced ground water levels across much of
Australia’s farming regions, as temperatures begin to rise
exponentially.” The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report was described by Agriculture Minister Tony Burke as like “a disaster novel”. This just days after the far-reaching policy on an emissions trading scheme, the Garnaut Report.

But one day later it seems to have gone missing in action. I was emailed a copy, and after a quick read wanted to look at some of the analysis as I did with the Garnaut Report. Despite being released on the 6th July, I read somewhere at from the Bureau of Meteorology Site that the supplementary information was not due to be released until 31 July. Now I can’t find it. I would like to know why the release of detailed information necessary for checking the report has not been in conjunction with the main report.

Initially I wanted to check the
tests that were conducted to determine the statistical significance of projected
increases in % area of temperature, rainfall and soil moisture. These are based on
the results for the individual 13 models used in the summary
tables 4, 7, and 9. I shot an email off to CSIRO yesterday asking for this information and have not received a reply as yet.

Now I can’t find the report. It contained a boiler plate disclaimer similar to those mentioned by Andrew Bolt that No responsibility will be accepted by CSIRO or the Bureau of Meteorology for the accuracy of the projections in or inferred from this report.

But where is the report on the web?

This report is a product of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), a partnership between CSIRO (Marine and Atmospheric Research) and the Bureau of Meteorology. It is also a product of the Climate Adaptation Flagship which was established by CSIRO as part of its National Research Flagship program (www.csiro.au/flagships).

It was produced by the The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research but under the research tab on their website is nothing but the message “Coming Soon …”. They are funded by CSIRO, and the Climate Adaptation Flagship program has no sign of it either. You can get the report I received from the link at the top of this post. Any links to the real web locations of this mysterious report would be greatly appreciated.

Update: 9th July. Both the report and supplementary information are now available at here the BoM website. The website states the report was revised on the 8th July, after its release on the 6th of July. I haven’t gone through it for the changes, but I note it’s 2 pages longer than the previous version.

Update: 7pm 9th July. The latest version of the BoM website no longer states the report had been revised on the 8th of July. Adobe Acrobat Professional has a handy facility for comparing versions of pdfs. Here are comparisons of the July 6th and July 9th reports, a side-by-side text comparison (7 Mb large), and a consolidated version (2 Mb) of the July 9th report. Seems to have had quite the makeover.

  • Chris Morris

    Could the reason for the delay in issing the report be because it doesn’t show the droughts will get worse? Look at the state graphs on P10-12. Then look at the extrapolations. They don’t match the data. Time for an adjustment possibly?

  • Chris Morris

    Could the reason for the delay in issing the report be because it doesn’t show the droughts will get worse? Look at the state graphs on P10-12. Then look at the extrapolations. They don’t match the data. Time for an adjustment possibly?

  • Anonymous

    Not quite sure what you are looking at there. Only the temperatures are completely plotted, the rainfalls seem to show no declining trend, and the soil moisture (the real drought index) shows almost no change in the table and is not plotted.

  • http://landshape.org/enm David Stockwell

    Not quite sure what you are looking at there. Only the temperatures are completely plotted, the rainfalls seem to show no declining trend, and the soil moisture (the real drought index) shows almost no change in the table and is not plotted.

  • Ian Castles

    David, I’d be interested to know, if it’s not too difficult to trace, what changes were made between the report as originally released and as revised and re-released two days later.

  • Ian Castles

    David, I’d be interested to know, if it’s not too difficult to trace, what changes were made between the report as originally released and as revised and re-released two days later.

  • Jan Pompe

    Folks if i suspect data is changing (adjusted as opposed to simply adding new data) I download and put it under RCS (it’s the simplest) revision control.

  • Jan Pompe

    Folks if i suspect data is changing (adjusted as opposed to simply adding new data) I download and put it under RCS (it’s the simplest) revision control.

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  • Mike C

    When it comes to reporting drought, BOM is as bad as it gets. There was a 6 year drought there, which as expected, followed the ENSO cycle and ended with the La Nina last year. We followed their reporting and noticed they cherry picked like mad. The BOM drought statements pointed to tiny areas of the country that were dry or went back in time to dry out the averages. It’s their chicken little issue, I get the feeling that besides some alarmists at BOM, there are some desalinization plant construction companies that fear losing public contracts.

  • Mike C

    When it comes to reporting drought, BOM is as bad as it gets. There was a 6 year drought there, which as expected, followed the ENSO cycle and ended with the La Nina last year. We followed their reporting and noticed they cherry picked like mad. The BOM drought statements pointed to tiny areas of the country that were dry or went back in time to dry out the averages. It’s their chicken little issue, I get the feeling that besides some alarmists at BOM, there are some desalinization plant construction companies that fear losing public contracts.

  • mondo45

    Do we really know what causes the Australian drought cycles? We are often told that rising temperatures due to AGW will increase the number, intensity and duration of droughts, but why is that necessarily so?

    Australia has long been subjected to serious droughts, and some observers, notably Peter Andrews (author of “Back from the Brink”, see http://www.nsfarming.com.au argue that over the past 150 years, man has progressively dehydrated the landscape by using inappropriate farming and water management practices. From the site: “Peter Andrews has devoted his life to the development of Natural Sequence Farming (NSF) techniques to restore the natural balance of water cycles prevalent before they were disturbed.”

    Peter argues that uncontrolled clearing of bush and scrub, ploughing, draining of wetlands and swamps, emphasis on holding water in dams, monoculture farming practices, and use of herbicides to interfere with nature’s methods of regeneration using “weeds”, has disrupted the natural processes. He has demonstrated remarkable success in rehydrating individual farm properties (of some size) by installing ‘leaky weirs’, slowing down stream flows, establishing wetlands and ‘chains of ponds’ and by encouraging diversity.

    It is very evident that in Australia man has dehydrated the landscape, and probably caused an increase in the intensity and duration of droughts, but it is not clear that CO2 emissions are the main cause. It is high time that we applied real science to understanding these issues. I urge all those seriously interested in the issues to have a look at what Peter is saying.

  • mondo45

    Do we really know what causes the Australian drought cycles? We are often told that rising temperatures due to AGW will increase the number, intensity and duration of droughts, but why is that necessarily so?

    Australia has long been subjected to serious droughts, and some observers, notably Peter Andrews (author of “Back from the Brink”, see http://www.nsfarming.com.au argue that over the past 150 years, man has progressively dehydrated the landscape by using inappropriate farming and water management practices. From the site: “Peter Andrews has devoted his life to the development of Natural Sequence Farming (NSF) techniques to restore the natural balance of water cycles prevalent before they were disturbed.”

    Peter argues that uncontrolled clearing of bush and scrub, ploughing, draining of wetlands and swamps, emphasis on holding water in dams, monoculture farming practices, and use of herbicides to interfere with nature’s methods of regeneration using “weeds”, has disrupted the natural processes. He has demonstrated remarkable success in rehydrating individual farm properties (of some size) by installing ‘leaky weirs’, slowing down stream flows, establishing wetlands and ‘chains of ponds’ and by encouraging diversity.

    It is very evident that in Australia man has dehydrated the landscape, and probably caused an increase in the intensity and duration of droughts, but it is not clear that CO2 emissions are the main cause. It is high time that we applied real science to understanding these issues. I urge all those seriously interested in the issues to have a look at what Peter is saying.

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  • Len van Burgel

    David,
    The link to the side by side text comparison of the reports between 6th and 9th July is broken.

  • Len van Burgel

    David,
    The link to the side by side text comparison of the reports between 6th and 9th July is broken.

  • John McLean

    The CSIRO’s climate reports are highly questionable publications. Please see here for a peer-reviewed analysis of their pre-2007 reports and here for an analysis of their 2007 claims.

    The common feature of both is their dismissal of the impact of the ENSO system on Australia’s weather patterns and in particular the Great Pacific Climate Shift of early 1976.

  • John McLean

    The CSIRO’s climate reports are highly questionable publications. Please see here for a peer-reviewed analysis of their pre-2007 reports and here for an analysis of their 2007 claims.

    The common feature of both is their dismissal of the impact of the ENSO system on Australia’s weather patterns and in particular the Great Pacific Climate Shift of early 1976.

  • Roger Wickham

    I feel things could be better for the Murray/Darling and all those depending on it and we all know they try to sustain the statis quoe of the rivers and keep them alive and vibrant and pristeen a shinging example of good land management.People now feel that Big River System is a living thing and needs lots of consideration and respect for it position on a plant, yes a blue plant as seen from space, yes the only known plant with life on it. That’s worth thinking about, I immagin so? So if you out their would like to be a friend ot the Storm Bird contact me, enjoy rain on your land, contact me . Your friend, the friend of the Rain Bird. Roger…………………………………

  • Roger Wickham

    I feel things could be better for the Murray/Darling and all those depending on it and we all know they try to sustain the statis quoe of the rivers and keep them alive and vibrant and pristeen a shinging example of good land management.People now feel that Big River System is a living thing and needs lots of consideration and respect for it position on a plant, yes a blue plant as seen from space, yes the only known plant with life on it. That’s worth thinking about, I immagin so? So if you out their would like to be a friend ot the Storm Bird contact me, enjoy rain on your land, contact me . Your friend, the friend of the Rain Bird. Roger…………………………………

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