The Drought Exceptional Circumstances report has been released (and reviewed here). The ABC described it thusly: “A new report is predicting a dramatic loss of soil moisture,
increased evaporation and reduced ground water levels across much of
Australia’s farming regions, as temperatures begin to rise
exponentially.” The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report was described by Agriculture Minister Tony Burke as like “a disaster novel”. This just days after the far-reaching policy on an emissions trading scheme, the Garnaut Report.
But one day later it seems to have gone missing in action. I was emailed a copy, and after a quick read wanted to look at some of the analysis as I did with the Garnaut Report. Despite being released on the 6th July, I read somewhere at from the Bureau of Meteorology Site that the supplementary information was not due to be released until 31 July. Now I can’t find it. I would like to know why the release of detailed information necessary for checking the report has not been in conjunction with the main report.
Initially I wanted to check the
tests that were conducted to determine the statistical significance of projected
increases in % area of temperature, rainfall and soil moisture. These are based on
the results for the individual 13 models used in the summary
tables 4, 7, and 9. I shot an email off to CSIRO yesterday asking for this information and have not received a reply as yet.
Now I can’t find the report. It contained a boiler plate disclaimer similar to those mentioned by Andrew Bolt that No responsibility will be accepted by CSIRO or the Bureau of Meteorology for the accuracy of the projections in or inferred from this report.
But where is the report on the web?
This report is a product of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), a partnership between CSIRO (Marine and Atmospheric Research) and the Bureau of Meteorology. It is also a product of the Climate Adaptation Flagship which was established by CSIRO as part of its National Research Flagship program (www.csiro.au/flagships).
It was produced by the The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research but under the research tab on their website is nothing but the message “Coming Soon …”. They are funded by CSIRO, and the Climate Adaptation Flagship program has no sign of it either. You can get the report I received from the link at the top of this post. Any links to the real web locations of this mysterious report would be greatly appreciated.
Update: 9th July. Both the report and supplementary information are now available at here the BoM website. The website states the report was revised on the 8th July, after its release on the 6th of July. I haven’t gone through it for the changes, but I note it’s 2 pages longer than the previous version.
Update: 7pm 9th July. The latest version of the BoM website no longer states the report had been revised on the 8th of July. Adobe Acrobat Professional has a handy facility for comparing versions of pdfs. Here are comparisons of the July 6th and July 9th reports, a side-by-side text comparison (7 Mb large), and a consolidated version (2 Mb) of the July 9th report. Seems to have had quite the makeover.