Comments on: El Niño falters, climate models follow

By: carlwolk

carlwolk — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 19:47:00 +0000

David,
The closest thing on my site is this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PineTDfAZYw
If it's on Bob Tisdale's site, I don't know where it is.
By the way, I hope to redo that video without the latitude band 0 to 15 N.

By: davids99us

davids99us — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 04:06:08 +0000

Carl,
I saw an animation on yours or Bob T's site recently of the change in
temperature by latitude,
from the 70's until now. I can't find it. Do you know where it is? Cheers

By: Carl Wolk

Carl Wolk — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 03:41:19 +0000

Andrew – The recent La Nina (2008-2009) had two dips. According to the SOI, the second dip was as great or greater than the first dip. According to Nino 3.4, the second dip was much smaller than the first. The difference between the two indexes was historically unusual. However, I see no reason to think it was anything but noise. The pressure differential (SOI) and the temperature of the Nino 3.4 region are coupled, and I don't see any reason why the nature of the relationship would have changed.

By: davids99us

davids99us — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 00:01:02 +0000

This paper reminds me of Erl Happ's recent post
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/08/22/...

By: Andrew

Andrew — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 23:34:14 +0000

Apropos:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/ScienceSunspots...

By: Andrew

Andrew — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 21:07:45 +0000

I'll have to check but I think usually SOI and NINO 3.4 track closely. Except not right now.

I have plans to do an analysis of various climate factors on the temperature history.

By: sherro

sherro — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 09:53:22 +0000

Andrew askes - "Could it be that the Solar minimum or the PDO shift are making this El Nino "different"?"

Why should all El Ninos be the same?

If I had time, I'd make up a list of reasons why all does not go as forecast in climate science. The dominant reason could be that the answer is known before the experiment is started. (sarc off).

I'd love to see a compund curve with all known regular, major climate influences roughly quantified and added. Diurnal, seasonal, annual, Milankovitch, etc. Then I'd like to see error envelopes around the curve. Then I'd like to see how far it could be projected into the future before the errors become unbearable.

This is even before El Nino, PDO, volcano, etc.

One authority told me sincerely that NASA can accurately predict Earth orbit math for a million years ahead. I supose that depends on the definition of "accurately".

For fun, try terms like rod, pole, perch, chain for distance, furlongs per fortnight for velocity, knots per hour for marine ignorance.

By: sherro

sherro — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 09:42:14 +0000

“press the button 'thrice'. ”
Like a second car I once had. I translated it to mean for “the rice”.

By: davids99us

davids99us — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:23:01 +0000

Nice graphic. I noticed NINO1 had turned down quite sharply. This shows
the cold water upwelling nicely.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml

By: John M

John M — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 22:48:20 +0000

Looks kind of interesting in the extrem eastern equitorial region of the Pacific right now, right off the S. American coast.

Also, kind of neat to see Hurricane Bill's “track” in the Atlantic.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009...