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	<title>Comments on: Errors of Global Warming Effects Modeling</title>
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	<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/</link>
	<description>The Power of Numeracy</description>
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		<title>By: Niche Modeling &#187; IPCC omissions on species extinctions</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/#comment-2390</link>
		<dc:creator>Niche Modeling &#187; IPCC omissions on species extinctions</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Jan 2010 18:52:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2330#comment-2390</guid>
		<description>[...] post provides more background to the issue and ways it has been brought to the attention of the [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] post provides more background to the issue and ways it has been brought to the attention of the [...]</p>
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		<title>By: davids99us</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/#comment-2392</link>
		<dc:creator>davids99us</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 02:41:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2330#comment-2392</guid>
		<description>I agree - from &lt;a href=&quot;http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-LawRef.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-Law...&lt;/a&gt;&quot;Validation is the process of determining the degree to which a model or simulation is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model or simulation. &quot; Establishing fitness-for-use, same idea.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree &#8211; from <a href="http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-LawRef.htm" rel="nofollow"></a><a href="http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-Law" rel="nofollow">http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-Law</a>&#8230;&#8220;Validation is the process of determining the degree to which a model or simulation is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model or simulation. &#8221; Establishing fitness-for-use, same idea.</p>
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		<title>By: Andrew</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/#comment-2391</link>
		<dc:creator>Andrew</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 02:30:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2330#comment-2391</guid>
		<description>I actually take issue with the use of the term &quot;validation&quot; here.validate-to make valid; substantiate; confirmDoes that sound like a good way to start referring to &lt;i&gt;tests&lt;/i&gt; of hypotheses?Of course, I know many in this field think the duty of science is to vindicate the paradigm and thus the models, it is truly perverse that studies start out setting a goal of confirming models, rather than testing them. This is not merely un-Popperian but thoroughly opposite that-the normal procedure would be to try as hard as possible to test models until they break-if you can&#039;t, that heightens confidence in them, if you can, something is wrong and so some revision is required-maybe something dramatic, maybe subtle. The resistance to falsification and the disturbing replacement with &quot;verification&quot; may mostly be a problem of semantics, but it doesn&#039;t inspire confidence.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I actually take issue with the use of the term &#8220;validation&#8221; here.validate-to make valid; substantiate; confirmDoes that sound like a good way to start referring to <i>tests</i> of hypotheses?Of course, I know many in this field think the duty of science is to vindicate the paradigm and thus the models, it is truly perverse that studies start out setting a goal of confirming models, rather than testing them. This is not merely un-Popperian but thoroughly opposite that-the normal procedure would be to try as hard as possible to test models until they break-if you can&#039;t, that heightens confidence in them, if you can, something is wrong and so some revision is required-maybe something dramatic, maybe subtle. The resistance to falsification and the disturbing replacement with &#8220;verification&#8221; may mostly be a problem of semantics, but it doesn&#039;t inspire confidence.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: davids99us</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/#comment-2389</link>
		<dc:creator>davids99us</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 21:41:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2330#comment-2389</guid>
		<description>I agree - from &lt;a href=&quot;http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-LawRef.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-Law...&lt;/a&gt;&quot;Validation is the process of determining the degree to which a model or simulation is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model or simulation. &quot; Establishing fitness-for-use, same idea.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree &#8211; from <a href="http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-LawRef.htm" rel="nofollow"></a><a href="http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-Law" rel="nofollow">http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-Law</a>&#8230;&#8220;Validation is the process of determining the degree to which a model or simulation is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model or simulation. &#8221; Establishing fitness-for-use, same idea.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/#comment-11397</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 21:41:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2330#comment-11397</guid>
		<description>I agree - from http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-LawRef.htm

&quot;Validation is the process of determining the degree to which a model or simulation is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model or simulation. &quot; 

Establishing fitness-for-use, same idea.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree &#8211; from <a href="http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-LawRef.htm" rel="nofollow">http://vva.msco.mil/Ref_Docs/Val_Lawref/Val-LawRef.htm</a></p>
<p>&#8220;Validation is the process of determining the degree to which a model or simulation is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model or simulation. &#8221; </p>
<p>Establishing fitness-for-use, same idea.</p>
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		<title>By: Andrew</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/#comment-2388</link>
		<dc:creator>Andrew</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 21:30:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2330#comment-2388</guid>
		<description>I actually take issue with the use of the term &quot;validation&quot; here.validate-to make valid; substantiate; confirmDoes that sound like a good way to start referring to &lt;i&gt;tests&lt;/i&gt; of hypotheses?Of course, I know many in this field think the duty of science is to vindicate the paradigm and thus the models, it is truly perverse that studies start out setting a goal of confirming models, rather than testing them. This is not merely un-Popperian but thoroughly opposite that-the normal procedure would be to try as hard as possible to test models until they break-if you can&#039;t, that heightens confidence in them, if you can, something is wrong and so some revision is required-maybe something dramatic, maybe subtle. The resistance to falsification and the disturbing replacement with &quot;verification&quot; may mostly be a problem of semantics, but it doesn&#039;t inspire confidence.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I actually take issue with the use of the term &#8220;validation&#8221; here.validate-to make valid; substantiate; confirmDoes that sound like a good way to start referring to <i>tests</i> of hypotheses?Of course, I know many in this field think the duty of science is to vindicate the paradigm and thus the models, it is truly perverse that studies start out setting a goal of confirming models, rather than testing them. This is not merely un-Popperian but thoroughly opposite that-the normal procedure would be to try as hard as possible to test models until they break-if you can&#039;t, that heightens confidence in them, if you can, something is wrong and so some revision is required-maybe something dramatic, maybe subtle. The resistance to falsification and the disturbing replacement with &#8220;verification&#8221; may mostly be a problem of semantics, but it doesn&#039;t inspire confidence.</p>
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		<title>By: Andrew</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/#comment-11396</link>
		<dc:creator>Andrew</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 21:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2330#comment-11396</guid>
		<description>I actually take issue with the use of the term &quot;validation&quot; here.

validate-to make valid; substantiate; confirm

Does that sound like a good way to start referring to &lt;i&gt;tests&lt;/i&gt; of hypotheses?

Of course, I know many in this field think the duty of science is to vindicate the paradigm and thus the models, it is truly perverse that studies start out setting a goal of confirming models, rather than testing them. This is not merely un-Popperian but thoroughly opposite that-the normal procedure would be to try as hard as possible to test models until they break-if you can&#039;t, that heightens confidence in them, if you can, something is wrong and so some revision is required-maybe something dramatic, maybe subtle. The resistance to falsification and the disturbing replacement with &quot;verification&quot; may mostly be a problem of semantics, but it doesn&#039;t inspire confidence.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I actually take issue with the use of the term &#8220;validation&#8221; here.</p>
<p>validate-to make valid; substantiate; confirm</p>
<p>Does that sound like a good way to start referring to <i>tests</i> of hypotheses?</p>
<p>Of course, I know many in this field think the duty of science is to vindicate the paradigm and thus the models, it is truly perverse that studies start out setting a goal of confirming models, rather than testing them. This is not merely un-Popperian but thoroughly opposite that-the normal procedure would be to try as hard as possible to test models until they break-if you can&#8217;t, that heightens confidence in them, if you can, something is wrong and so some revision is required-maybe something dramatic, maybe subtle. The resistance to falsification and the disturbing replacement with &#8220;verification&#8221; may mostly be a problem of semantics, but it doesn&#8217;t inspire confidence.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: kuhnkat</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/#comment-2387</link>
		<dc:creator>kuhnkat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 16:41:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2330#comment-2387</guid>
		<description>Gary Strand,&quot;... if someone demands that climate models be &quot;validated&quot; (or else the models aren&#039;t credible) then they should have an idea of what that means.&quot;Do you really mean this??I am not allowed to require validation of claims by EXPERTS simply because I am not versed in their area of practice??No wonder snake oil salesmen are so successful!!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gary Strand,&#8221;&#8230; if someone demands that climate models be &#8220;validated&#8221; (or else the models aren&#039;t credible) then they should have an idea of what that means.&#8221;Do you really mean this??I am not allowed to require validation of claims by EXPERTS simply because I am not versed in their area of practice??No wonder snake oil salesmen are so successful!!!</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: kuhnkat</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/#comment-11392</link>
		<dc:creator>kuhnkat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 16:41:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2330#comment-11392</guid>
		<description>Gary Strand,

&quot;... if someone demands that climate models be &quot;validated&quot; (or else the models aren&#039;t credible) then they should have an idea of what that means.&quot;

Do you really mean this??

I am not allowed to require validation of claims by EXPERTS simply because I am not versed in their area of practice??

No wonder snake oil salesmen are so successful!!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gary Strand,</p>
<p>&#8220;&#8230; if someone demands that climate models be &#8220;validated&#8221; (or else the models aren&#8217;t credible) then they should have an idea of what that means.&#8221;</p>
<p>Do you really mean this??</p>
<p>I am not allowed to require validation of claims by EXPERTS simply because I am not versed in their area of practice??</p>
<p>No wonder snake oil salesmen are so successful!!!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: davids99us</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/#comment-2386</link>
		<dc:creator>davids99us</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Jul 2009 20:56:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2330#comment-2386</guid>
		<description>Gary.  I have a draft where I have applied my preferred validation tests to the DECR extreme temperature and drought projections, including the Santer &#039;inconsistency&#039;.  If you are interested in commenting on it, I will send it to you privately.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gary.  I have a draft where I have applied my preferred validation tests to the DECR extreme temperature and drought projections, including the Santer &#039;inconsistency&#039;.  If you are interested in commenting on it, I will send it to you privately.</p>
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