Comments on: Expected Changes from Global Warming http://landshape.org/enm/expected-changes-from-global-warming/ The Power of Numeracy Tue, 07 Feb 2012 17:57:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: davids99us http://landshape.org/enm/expected-changes-from-global-warming/#comment-976 davids99us Fri, 20 Nov 2009 02:49:50 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3261#comment-976 Aslak,I know there are a number of papersusing the same general assumptions,though the details vary. From my empiricalperspective I have noted:1. There little evidence for 'acceleration' ofsea level WRT temperature. Plot SL and T andthe best fit is a straight line, suggestingempirical support is for SL = aT+c notdSL/dt=aT , the rate related relationshipwhere sea level rises faster when as it getshotter.2. The SL stopped increasing mid centuryjust when temperature stopped increasing.This suggest at most a 10 year lag isjustified by the data. Could it also be thatthe current low rate of SL increase isbecause temperature has stopped increasing?So if temperature does not increase muchthen SL may not increase much either.3. The estimates of 1m are based on IPCCprojections which are running way too high.Current warming after subtracting out PDOare about 0.5C Century. Anyway, if IPCC projections are high side, the is sea levelwill be too. Aslak,I know there are a number of papersusing the same general assumptions,though the details vary. From my empiricalperspective I have noted:1. There little evidence for 'acceleration' ofsea level WRT temperature. Plot SL and T andthe best fit is a straight line, suggestingempirical support is for SL = aT+c notdSL/dt=aT , the rate related relationshipwhere sea level rises faster when as it getshotter.2. The SL stopped increasing mid centuryjust when temperature stopped increasing.This suggest at most a 10 year lag isjustified by the data. Could it also be thatthe current low rate of SL increase isbecause temperature has stopped increasing?So if temperature does not increase muchthen SL may not increase much either.3. The estimates of 1m are based on IPCCprojections which are running way too high.Current warming after subtracting out PDOare about 0.5C Century. Anyway, if IPCC projections are high side, the is sea levelwill be too.

]]> By: Anonymous http://landshape.org/enm/expected-changes-from-global-warming/#comment-11998 Anonymous Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:49:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3261#comment-11998 Aslak, I know there are a number of papers using the same general assumptions, though the details vary. From my empirical perspective I have noted: 1. There little evidence for 'acceleration' of sea level WRT temperature. Plot SL and T and the best fit is a straight line, suggesting empirical support is for SL = aT+c not dSL/dt=aT , the rate related relationship where sea level rises faster when as it gets hotter. 2. The SL stopped increasing mid century just when temperature stopped increasing. This suggest at most a 10 year lag is justified by the data. Could it also be that the current low rate of SL increase is because temperature has stopped increasing? So if temperature does not increase much then SL may not increase much either. 3. The estimates of 1m are based on IPCC projections which are running way too high. Current warming after subtracting out PDO are about 0.5C Century. Anyway, if IPCC projections are high side, the is sea level will be too. Aslak,
I know there are a number of papers
using the same general assumptions,
though the details vary. From my empirical
perspective I have noted:

1. There little evidence for ‘acceleration’ of
sea level WRT temperature. Plot SL and T and
the best fit is a straight line, suggesting
empirical support is for SL = aT+c not
dSL/dt=aT , the rate related relationship
where sea level rises faster when as it gets
hotter.

2. The SL stopped increasing mid century
just when temperature stopped increasing.
This suggest at most a 10 year lag is
justified by the data. Could it also be that
the current low rate of SL increase is
because temperature has stopped increasing?
So if temperature does not increase much
then SL may not increase much either.

3. The estimates of 1m are based on IPCC
projections which are running way too high.
Current warming after subtracting out PDO
are about 0.5C Century. Anyway, if IPCC
projections are high side, the is sea level
will be too.

]]> By: davids99us http://landshape.org/enm/expected-changes-from-global-warming/#comment-975 davids99us Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:49:50 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3261#comment-975 Aslak,I know there are a number of papersusing the same general assumptions,though the details vary. From my empiricalperspective I have noted:1. There little evidence for 'acceleration' ofsea level WRT temperature. Plot SL and T andthe best fit is a straight line, suggestingempirical support is for SL = aT+c notdSL/dt=aT , the rate related relationshipwhere sea level rises faster when as it getshotter.2. The SL stopped increasing mid centuryjust when temperature stopped increasing.This suggest at most a 10 year lag isjustified by the data. Could it also be thatthe current low rate of SL increase isbecause temperature has stopped increasing?So if temperature does not increase muchthen SL may not increase much either.3. The estimates of 1m are based on IPCCprojections which are running way too high.Current warming after subtracting out PDOare about 0.5C Century. Anyway, if IPCC projections are high side, the is sea levelwill be too. Aslak,I know there are a number of papersusing the same general assumptions,though the details vary. From my empiricalperspective I have noted:1. There little evidence for 'acceleration' ofsea level WRT temperature. Plot SL and T andthe best fit is a straight line, suggestingempirical support is for SL = aT+c notdSL/dt=aT , the rate related relationshipwhere sea level rises faster when as it getshotter.2. The SL stopped increasing mid centuryjust when temperature stopped increasing.This suggest at most a 10 year lag isjustified by the data. Could it also be thatthe current low rate of SL increase isbecause temperature has stopped increasing?So if temperature does not increase muchthen SL may not increase much either.3. The estimates of 1m are based on IPCCprojections which are running way too high.Current warming after subtracting out PDOare about 0.5C Century. Anyway, if IPCC projections are high side, the is sea levelwill be too.

]]> By: Aslak Grinsted http://landshape.org/enm/expected-changes-from-global-warming/#comment-11997 Aslak Grinsted Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:18:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3261#comment-11997 There is an error in the Siddall paper. According to this page a correction is in preparation. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/08/ups-and-downs-of-sea-level-projections/ So, the projections of ~1m are (in my opinion) still the best. (Papers by Grinsted, Jevrejeva, Rahmstorf, and Vermeer all agree on this). There is an error in the Siddall paper. According to this page a correction is in preparation.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/08/ups-and-downs-of-sea-level-projections/

So, the projections of ~1m are (in my opinion) still the best. (Papers by Grinsted, Jevrejeva, Rahmstorf, and Vermeer all agree on this).

]]> By: Aslak Grinsted http://landshape.org/enm/expected-changes-from-global-warming/#comment-974 Aslak Grinsted Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:18:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3261#comment-974 There is an error in the Siddall paper. According to this page a correction is in preparation.<a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/08/ups-and-downs-of-sea-level-projections/" rel="nofollow">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2...</a>So, the projections of ~1m are (in my opinion) still the best. (Papers by Grinsted, Jevrejeva, Rahmstorf, and Vermeer all agree on this). There is an error in the Siddall paper. According to this page a correction is in preparation.http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2…So, the projections of ~1m are (in my opinion) still the best. (Papers by Grinsted, Jevrejeva, Rahmstorf, and Vermeer all agree on this).

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