Comments on: February 2009 global temperatures from RSS http://landshape.org/enm/february-2009-global-temperatures-from-rss/ The Power of Numeracy Tue, 07 Feb 2012 17:57:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Geoff Sherrington http://landshape.org/enm/february-2009-global-temperatures-from-rss/#comment-2020 Geoff Sherrington Wed, 18 Mar 2009 00:45:37 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1849#comment-2020 Jessica, Not sure of your question or if it for me. Do you seek monthly temperature averages for Jan and Feb of 1993 and 1981 for Melbourne central? These are easily found at http://www.australianweathernews.com/recent_AWN_daydataArchive_element.html Cheers Geoff. Jessica,

Not sure of your question or if it for me. Do you seek monthly temperature averages for Jan and Feb of 1993 and 1981 for Melbourne central?

These are easily found at
http://www.australianweathernews.com/recent_AWN_daydataArchive_element.html

Cheers Geoff.

]]> By: Geoff Sherrington http://landshape.org/enm/february-2009-global-temperatures-from-rss/#comment-10614 Geoff Sherrington Wed, 18 Mar 2009 00:45:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1849#comment-10614 Jessica, Not sure of your question or if it for me. Do you seek monthly temperature averages for Jan and Feb of 1993 and 1981 for Melbourne central? These are easily found at http://www.australianweathernews.com/recent_AWN_daydataArchive_element.html Cheers Geoff. Jessica,

Not sure of your question or if it for me. Do you seek monthly temperature averages for Jan and Feb of 1993 and 1981 for Melbourne central?

These are easily found at
http://www.australianweathernews.com/recent_AWN_daydataArchive_element.html

Cheers Geoff.

]]> By: jessica http://landshape.org/enm/february-2009-global-temperatures-from-rss/#comment-2019 jessica Tue, 17 Mar 2009 22:12:30 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1849#comment-2019 Why did'nt you add 1993 and 1981. Why did’nt you add 1993 and 1981.

]]> By: jessica http://landshape.org/enm/february-2009-global-temperatures-from-rss/#comment-10613 jessica Tue, 17 Mar 2009 22:12:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1849#comment-10613 Why did'nt you add 1993 and 1981. Why did’nt you add 1993 and 1981.

]]> By: jan pompe http://landshape.org/enm/february-2009-global-temperatures-from-rss/#comment-2018 jan pompe Tue, 10 Mar 2009 07:56:21 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1849#comment-2018 Geoff #7 <blockquote>BTW, I think it quite silly to ruminate about Global Warming having anything to do with these fires, not that many intelligent people have. One swallow doth not a summer make.</blockquote> Trouble is that there are people who see only the magnitude of the disaster and fail to notice that it is a long tail event. We had same large bushfires here at the same time in Wollemi but threatened nobody and were just allowed to burn. Geoff #7

BTW, I think it quite silly to ruminate about Global Warming having anything to do with these fires, not that many intelligent people have. One swallow doth not a summer make.

Trouble is that there are people who see only the magnitude of the disaster and fail to notice that it is a long tail event. We had same large bushfires here at the same time in Wollemi but threatened nobody and were just allowed to burn.

]]> By: jan pompe http://landshape.org/enm/february-2009-global-temperatures-from-rss/#comment-10612 jan pompe Tue, 10 Mar 2009 07:56:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1849#comment-10612 Geoff #7 <blockquote>BTW, I think it quite silly to ruminate about Global Warming having anything to do with these fires, not that many intelligent people have. One swallow doth not a summer make.</blockquote> Trouble is that there are people who see only the magnitude of the disaster and fail to notice that it is a long tail event. We had same large bushfires here at the same time in Wollemi but threatened nobody and were just allowed to burn. Geoff #7

BTW, I think it quite silly to ruminate about Global Warming having anything to do with these fires, not that many intelligent people have. One swallow doth not a summer make.

Trouble is that there are people who see only the magnitude of the disaster and fail to notice that it is a long tail event. We had same large bushfires here at the same time in Wollemi but threatened nobody and were just allowed to burn.

]]> By: Geoff Sherrington http://landshape.org/enm/february-2009-global-temperatures-from-rss/#comment-2017 Geoff Sherrington Tue, 10 Mar 2009 07:14:12 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1849#comment-2017 David, I see a complex of events melding in to the meaning of Exceptional Circumstances. I have alluded to fires needing good years of growth for fuel, but also dry years to increase burning/fire temperature. A fire the year after a big fire in the same spot will tend to be smaller. Lightning can cause fires and increased lightning might correlate with increased rain (I don't know), which alters the chance of both putting out a fire and starting one. The runoff from fire ravaged land is less likely to soak in and so the following growth season is affected, except that some seeds need fire to germinate and some fires can lead to better growth. The water that runs off more rapidly to sea instead of soaking in, is less available to form clouds by evaporation, hence changing water vapour feedback on radiation. Fires can also change soil fertilization and surface albedo and both affect regrowth, possibly rainfall, possibly temperature. ...... The whole lot is interrelated, under the umbrella of Exceptional Circumstances prediction, which I think is not fruitful because the effects are not well understood. Evidence that all relevant factors are not all understood quantitatively is shown by the DECR that is uncertain in some degrees that might not matter, sometimes in degrees that will. Yes, I have read it and I found it unconvincing. BTW, I think it quite silly to ruminate about Global Warming having anything to do with these fires, not that many intelligent people have. One swallow doth not a summer make. David, I see a complex of events melding in to the meaning of Exceptional Circumstances. I have alluded to fires needing good years of growth for fuel, but also dry years to increase burning/fire temperature. A fire the year after a big fire in the same spot will tend to be smaller. Lightning can cause fires and increased lightning might correlate with increased rain (I don’t know), which alters the chance of both putting out a fire and starting one. The runoff from fire ravaged land is less likely to soak in and so the following growth season is affected, except that some seeds need fire to germinate and some fires can lead to better growth. The water that runs off more rapidly to sea instead of soaking in, is less available to form clouds by evaporation, hence changing water vapour feedback on radiation. Fires can also change soil fertilization and surface albedo and both affect regrowth, possibly rainfall, possibly temperature. …… The whole lot is interrelated, under the umbrella of Exceptional Circumstances prediction, which I think is not fruitful because the effects are not well understood. Evidence that all relevant factors are not all understood quantitatively is shown by the DECR that is uncertain in some degrees that might not matter, sometimes in degrees that will. Yes, I have read it and I found it unconvincing.

BTW, I think it quite silly to ruminate about Global Warming having anything to do with these fires, not that many intelligent people have. One swallow doth not a summer make.

]]> By: Geoff Sherrington http://landshape.org/enm/february-2009-global-temperatures-from-rss/#comment-10611 Geoff Sherrington Tue, 10 Mar 2009 07:14:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1849#comment-10611 David, I see a complex of events melding in to the meaning of Exceptional Circumstances. I have alluded to fires needing good years of growth for fuel, but also dry years to increase burning/fire temperature. A fire the year after a big fire in the same spot will tend to be smaller. Lightning can cause fires and increased lightning might correlate with increased rain (I don't know), which alters the chance of both putting out a fire and starting one. The runoff from fire ravaged land is less likely to soak in and so the following growth season is affected, except that some seeds need fire to germinate and some fires can lead to better growth. The water that runs off more rapidly to sea instead of soaking in, is less available to form clouds by evaporation, hence changing water vapour feedback on radiation. Fires can also change soil fertilization and surface albedo and both affect regrowth, possibly rainfall, possibly temperature. ...... The whole lot is interrelated, under the umbrella of Exceptional Circumstances prediction, which I think is not fruitful because the effects are not well understood. Evidence that all relevant factors are not all understood quantitatively is shown by the DECR that is uncertain in some degrees that might not matter, sometimes in degrees that will. Yes, I have read it and I found it unconvincing. BTW, I think it quite silly to ruminate about Global Warming having anything to do with these fires, not that many intelligent people have. One swallow doth not a summer make. David, I see a complex of events melding in to the meaning of Exceptional Circumstances. I have alluded to fires needing good years of growth for fuel, but also dry years to increase burning/fire temperature. A fire the year after a big fire in the same spot will tend to be smaller. Lightning can cause fires and increased lightning might correlate with increased rain (I don’t know), which alters the chance of both putting out a fire and starting one. The runoff from fire ravaged land is less likely to soak in and so the following growth season is affected, except that some seeds need fire to germinate and some fires can lead to better growth. The water that runs off more rapidly to sea instead of soaking in, is less available to form clouds by evaporation, hence changing water vapour feedback on radiation. Fires can also change soil fertilization and surface albedo and both affect regrowth, possibly rainfall, possibly temperature. …… The whole lot is interrelated, under the umbrella of Exceptional Circumstances prediction, which I think is not fruitful because the effects are not well understood. Evidence that all relevant factors are not all understood quantitatively is shown by the DECR that is uncertain in some degrees that might not matter, sometimes in degrees that will. Yes, I have read it and I found it unconvincing.

BTW, I think it quite silly to ruminate about Global Warming having anything to do with these fires, not that many intelligent people have. One swallow doth not a summer make.

]]> By: admin http://landshape.org/enm/february-2009-global-temperatures-from-rss/#comment-2016 admin Tue, 10 Mar 2009 06:40:13 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1849#comment-2016 Geoff makes an interesting point, and I am actually quite surprised as I though there was a run of days at +40C. The assumption of the the DECR work is that the increased exceptional circumstances result from an increase in the mean of distribution of random events, tending to skew hot days up say. This might work on droughts say, that go on over a period of time, but Geoff illustrates that the bushfires occurred on a day so exceptional, they are a classic long-tailed event. In this case the increase in probability of the even as a result of movement of the mean would be miniscule. I think it would be the case that the kind of model for exceptional events used by the DECR would be pointless. Rather a model of a logistic distribution using a shape parameter, rather than mean, would make more sense, if shape actually did change for any rason. Geoff makes an interesting point, and I am actually quite surprised as I though there was a run of days at +40C. The assumption of the the DECR work is that the increased exceptional circumstances result from an increase in the mean of distribution of random events, tending to skew hot days up say. This might work on droughts say, that go on over a period of time, but Geoff illustrates that the bushfires occurred on a day so exceptional, they are a classic long-tailed event. In this case the increase in probability of the even as a result of movement of the mean would be miniscule.

I think it would be the case that the kind of model for exceptional events used by the DECR would be pointless. Rather a model of a logistic distribution using a shape parameter, rather than mean, would make more sense, if shape actually did change for any rason.

]]> By: Anonymous http://landshape.org/enm/february-2009-global-temperatures-from-rss/#comment-10610 Anonymous Tue, 10 Mar 2009 06:40:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1849#comment-10610 Geoff makes an interesting point, and I am actually quite surprised as I though there was a run of days at +40C. The assumption of the the DECR work is that the increased exceptional circumstances result from an increase in the mean of distribution of random events, tending to skew hot days up say. This might work on droughts say, that go on over a period of time, but Geoff illustrates that the bushfires occurred on a day so exceptional, they are a classic long-tailed event. In this case the increase in probability of the even as a result of movement of the mean would be miniscule. I think it would be the case that the kind of model for exceptional events used by the DECR would be pointless. Rather a model of a logistic distribution using a shape parameter, rather than mean, would make more sense, if shape actually did change for any rason. Geoff makes an interesting point, and I am actually quite surprised as I though there was a run of days at +40C. The assumption of the the DECR work is that the increased exceptional circumstances result from an increase in the mean of distribution of random events, tending to skew hot days up say. This might work on droughts say, that go on over a period of time, but Geoff illustrates that the bushfires occurred on a day so exceptional, they are a classic long-tailed event. In this case the increase in probability of the even as a result of movement of the mean would be miniscule.

I think it would be the case that the kind of model for exceptional events used by the DECR would be pointless. Rather a model of a logistic distribution using a shape parameter, rather than mean, would make more sense, if shape actually did change for any rason.

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