FOI2009

Thomas Fuller

The one message I’d like to convey is we do not need to rush on this. This will be around to examine and feed our discussions for a long time to come. If we start right, it will go better for us. There seems to be some indications of possible unethical behaviour, if these are true representations of email communications. It isn’t right to tell people to delete emails that may be the subject of FOI requests, at the very least. But we don’t need to pile onto this right now.

Softly, softly…

Fascinating … a taste: ./mail/0933255789.txt

From: Adam Markham
To: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, n.sheard@uea.ac.uk
Subject: WWF Australia
Date: Thu, 29 Jul 1999 09:43:09 -0400
Cc: mrae@wwf.org.au

Hi Mike,

I’m sure you will get some comments direct from Mike Rae in WWF
Australia, but I wanted to pass on the gist of what they’ve said to me so
far.

They are worried that this may present a slightly more conservative
approach to the risks than they are hearing from CSIRO. In particular,
they would like to see the section on variability and extreme events
beefed up if possible.
They regard an increased likelihood of even 50%
of drought or extreme weather as a significant risk. Drought is also a
particularly importnat issue for Australia, as are tropical storms.

I guess the bottom line is that if they are going to go with a big public
splash on this they need something that will get good support from
CSIRO scientists (who will certainly be asked to comment by the press).
One paper they referred me to, which you probably know well is:
“The Question of Significance” by Barrie in Nature Vol 397, 25 Feb 1999,
p 657

Let me know what you think. Adam

Another good one … ./mail/0926947295.txt

A researcher asks (naively) why the rates of CO2 accumulation being used are so unrealistically high:

From: franci [mailto:franci@giss.nasa.gov]
> Sent: Saturday, May 15, 1999 3:58 PM
> To: Benjamin Felzer
> Cc: Mike Hulme; schimel@ucar.edu; wigley@ucar.edu; kittel@ucar.edu;
> sjagtap@agen.ufl.edu; nanr@ucar.edu; Mike MacCracken
> Subject: Re: CO2
>
>
> dear ben,
>
> You just showed that the Hadley transient run we are supposed to use for the
> national assessment is too high, forcing-wise, because it assumes an overall
> 1.2% increase in total forcing.
>
> My question is then the following:
>
> -why are we using a 1% annual increase in GHG forcing (corresponding to the
> 1.2% increase) as a criteria for GCM simulations to then be used for the
> national assessment? Is it because of the possible confusion you refer to
> below? If so, that criteria needs to be revised.

To be told off in no uncertain terms:

From: Dave Schimel
To: Shrikant Jagtap
Subject: RE: CO2
Date: Mon, 17 May 1999 09:21:35 -0600 (MDT)
Cc: franci , Benjamin Felzer , Mike Hulme , schimel@ucar.edu, wigl
ey@ucar.edu, kittel@ucar.edu, nanr@ucar.edu, Mike MacCracken

I want to make one thing really clear. We ARE NOT supposed to be working with the assumption that these scenarios are realistic. They are scenarios-internally consistent (or so we thought) what-if storylines. You are in fact out of line to assume that these are in some sense realistic-this is in direct contradiction to the guidance on scenarios provided by the synthesis team.

UPDATE: The Mick Shedlock post Hackers Prove Global Warming Is A Scam summarizes the revelations so far, giving a finance community perspective on the (mis)behavior of Phil Jones in particular.

  • kuhnkat

    There should be no rush that makes mistakes and muddies the waters further, BUT, there is definite need for expeditious proceedings!!

  • Anonymous

    There should be no rush that makes mistakes and muddies the waters further, BUT, there is definite need for expeditious proceedings!!

    • Anonymous

      I tend to think there are actionable issues here. Perhaps Steve is busy. Fair comment at RC: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/comment-page-5/#comment-142303

      “With all due respect, I have talked to a number of my friends who are active scientists in other fields, and they’ve all made it very clear that they have never seen anything like the content of these e-mails. Sure, there are reasonable explanations for the ‘trick’ comment, and it’s not unusual for people to comment on data and so forth, but many of these e-mails point to some very questionable behavior regarding the use of funds and responses to FOI requests. That’s the big issue here. Such a scandal doesn’t ‘disprove’ AGW, of course, but you’re not going to be able to simply go, “It’s no big deal.””

      I would also mention apparent collusion of editors and reviewers on the McLean/Foster papers, the influence IPCC and green groups have over the spin of the science, as well as at CSIRO. As above, this is a lot worse than I have seen in other fields, and that’s one reason why its been be burr in my saddle for so long.

  • davids99us

    I tend to think there are actionable issues here. Perhaps Steve is busy. Fair comment at RC: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2…“With all due respect, I have talked to a number of my friends who are active scientists in other fields, and they’ve all made it very clear that they have never seen anything like the content of these e-mails. Sure, there are reasonable explanations for the ‘trick’ comment, and it’s not unusual for people to comment on data and so forth, but many of these e-mails point to some very questionable behavior regarding the use of funds and responses to FOI requests. That’s the big issue here. Such a scandal doesn’t ‘disprove’ AGW, of course, but you’re not going to be able to simply go, “It’s no big deal.””I would also mention apparent collusion of editors and reviewers on the McLean/Foster papers, the influence IPCC and green groups have over the spin of the science, as well as at CSIRO. As above, this is a lot worse than I have seen in other fields, and that's one reason why its been be burr in my saddle for so long.

  • boyonabike

    With regard to the email about the WWF pamphlets, I have tracked down a copy of them in Google cache at http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:http://www…The WWF paid $US142,000 for them by the way – http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:http://mik…The press release from the WWF back in 1999 is here:http://www.worldwildlife.org/who/media/press/19…I think I have also found the paper that is referred to in Nature – the one that caused the WWF to come knocking on Mike's door. It's here:http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v397/n6721…My problem is this – I do not have the skills to decipher the original paper in Nature and to compare it to the pamphlets in order to find what changes were made to suit the needs of the WWF for $142,000. Are you able to give it a go?

  • Anonymous

    With regard to the email about the WWF pamphlets, I have tracked down a copy of them in Google cache at http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/research/wwfscenarios.html

    The WWF paid $US142,000 for them by the way – http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:http://mikehulme.org/2007/01/current-projects/

    The press release from the WWF back in 1999 is here:

    http://www.worldwildlife.org/who/media/press/1999/WWFPresitem10476.html

    I think I have also found the paper that is referred to in Nature – the one that caused the WWF to come knocking on Mike’s door. It’s here:

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v397/n6721/pdf/397688a0.pdf

    My problem is this – I do not have the skills to decipher the original paper in Nature and to compare it to the pamphlets in order to find what changes were made to suit the needs of the WWF for $142,000. Are you able to give it a go?

    • Anonymous

      Interesting. The paper seems to show wheat yields increasing.

      • Anonymous

        That would be consistent with CO2 fertilization!!!

        Even with somewhat less moisture.

        That also would NOT be consistent with Alarmist Memes!!

  • davids99us

    Interesting. The paper seems to show wheat yields increasing.

  • kuhnkat

    That would be consistent with CO2 fertilization!!!Even with somewhat less moisture.That also would NOT be consistent with Alarmist Memes!!

  • kuhnkat

    That would be consistent with CO2 fertilization!!!Even with somewhat less moisture.That also would NOT be consistent with Alarmist Memes!!

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