This graph needs little comment as it is evident from the data fresh in from the University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) Microwave Sounder Unit for the lower troposphere where global temperatures are headed. As in this post in March, I have plotted both northern (red) and southern (blue) hemisphere temperatures, along with the global average (black). While March was notable due to a large divergence in temperatures between the hemispheres, in May the divergence has been completely retraced, and the NH is following the SH temperatures downward.
Global anomalies are now at levels experienced 30 years ago at the start of the satellite record.
Global temperature is clearly moving down as sea level, stratospheric temperatures and other long term integrators of global temperatures suggest. The view expressed by the lead IPCC authors in Rahmstorf et.al. (Science Brevia, 4 May 2007, p709 [1]) that the climate “may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates” is looking very ‘premature’ (as they say in the journals). The Interim Report of the Garnaut Review advocating prompt and extreme action on carbon emissions (Section 2.4 Consequences of Climate Change, Observed Climate Change), is a rather ‘courageous’ policy direction (Yes. Minister).
Meanwhile, “Houston, we seem to have another problem.”
Hat tip to Anthony Watts and the UAH data.
8 responses so far ↓
This is a rather amazing plunge. I have to admit I’m surprised– I was expecting La Nina to end, and temperature to move up. (Even with the PDO switch, I still expected up.) Oh well… shows I’m not psychic.
The must still be a few like me that think AGW could still be based entirely on a spurious correlation.
My neighbor, a 30 year resident, did not see snow on the mountain top as late as during last summer. This year, frost free was one month late per local plant nursery.
Very large tree rings 5 years ago, however, I live on top of unconsolidated glacial debris, left 13,000 years ago.
Hi David,
“The must still be a few like me that think AGW could still be based entirely on a spurious correlation.”
Yes but I thought it was just too good to be true so it probably is. Jokes aside have you written this up somewhere I have the same suspicion but I’m no statistician and would like to learn more?
Hi Jan, the audits on Koutsoyiannis address purely statistical issues. I haven’t written anything about the case being circumstantial and other factors not yet being excluded as the cause of recent warming. I have just read some of the attribution studies that are not very convincing as they generally conclude it must be CO2 as X doesn’t explain it — an argument by default. I have an alternative explanation for recent warming that I am working on, but I am keeping quite about it until its really done, as I would be put in the crank category in an instant in this climate.
I am a bit surprised about the lack of uptake of the latest months falls. Its now much more significant than March, when there was a big kerfuffel over for the falls, and bloggers were accused of being ‘devilish’ by James Hansen for drawing attention to it. Now the falls have really set in — silence from the media and the AGWers.
Hi Dave, thanks for the reply I’ll take a look at the Koutsoyiannis audits after I have had some sleep.
As for the fall I suspect it’s being ignored in the hope they’ll go away.
BTW is your book available in Australia?
Australia is having its coldest August for nearly 20 years. Rainfall has returned to average levels after a 7-8 yr drought, the snow levels at the ski resorts are the best for nearly 20 years. Minimum temp records are being smashed - and La Nina is actually having a little bit of an encore with SOI values at +3 at the moment - a far cry from the predicition that La Nina would end wit a bang back in March. Shows the worth of climate models doesnt it?! I thought as CO2 went up, temperatures did too - well thats what Reverends Gore, Stern and Suzuki told me!
Google: “Greenland’s forest could provide glimpse into future”
Flipping, tipping point, a la Al Gore style. Undetermined, what flipped it. Whatewer it was, can we re-create it ? SootBomb the floating ice, prevent quick ice age, possible ace in the hole ?
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