Niche Modeling

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Global Temperatures 2008

February 27th, 2008 by admin · 1 Comment

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Predicting global temperatures seems to be entering general awareness as a worthwhile exercise. As I have published about recently, I think climate models are inadequately validated, confidence in the skill of models to forecast global warming is vastly exaggerated, and current skill is not enough to serve useful purposes. I thought I would tabulate some of the various predictions as I come across them. This is a fair test, as the future is unknown, and at the end of the year we can see whose is most accurate.

Source Prediction Observed Quotes
UK Met Office and Uni. of Anglia 0.37 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C
UK Met Office and Uni. of Anglia Global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C 0.41 °C (2007) is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.

(2008) This (cooling) was due to a much quicker than expected decline of a moderate El Niño that warms the climate, followed by the development of the strong cooling influence of the current La Niña.

lucia … the average temperature anomaly for 2008, as reported by GISS Land/Ocean measurements will be 0.70 ± 0.11 C. … the curve shown assumes that the forcing will increase at a constant rate of 0.48 W/m2 after 2003.
Niche Modeling O.2 (CRU) Future temperatures predicted using a random fractional differencing algorithm that generates realistic LTP behavior.

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1 response so far ↓

  • 1 lucia // Feb 29, 2008 at 12:41 am

    Yes. It’s a fair test. Admittedly, we expect a lot of scatter in one year. Still, it’s interesting to see everyone’s predictions. (My prediction is going to be … wrong!)

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