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Predicting global temperatures seems to be entering general awareness as a worthwhile exercise. As I have published about recently, I think climate models are inadequately validated, confidence in the skill of models to forecast global warming is vastly exaggerated, and current skill is not enough to serve useful purposes. I thought I would tabulate some of the various predictions as I come across them. This is a fair test, as the future is unknown, and at the end of the year we can see whose is most accurate.
| Source | Prediction | Observed | Quotes |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK Met Office and Uni. of Anglia | 0.37 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C | ||
| UK Met Office and Uni. of Anglia | Global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C | 0.41 °C | (2007) is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.
(2008) This (cooling) was due to a much quicker than expected decline of a moderate El Niño that warms the climate, followed by the development of the strong cooling influence of the current La Niña. |
| lucia | … the average temperature anomaly for 2008, as reported by GISS Land/Ocean measurements will be 0.70 ± 0.11 C. | … the curve shown assumes that the forcing will increase at a constant rate of 0.48 W/m2 after 2003. | |
| Niche Modeling | O.2 (CRU) | Future temperatures predicted using a random fractional differencing algorithm that generates realistic LTP behavior. |
1 response so far ↓
Yes. It’s a fair test. Admittedly, we expect a lot of scatter in one year. Still, it’s interesting to see everyone’s predictions. (My prediction is going to be … wrong!)
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