The UAH Index is approaching new highs, but there is overhead resistance immediately ahead, and primary medium-term indicators are becoming modestly overheated.

Does this spell trouble ahead for the AGW bulls? Eventually. Overheated conditions generally indicate an imminent drop, usually between -0.6-0.8 degrees C.

Our chart shows the satellite data from UAH with three primary medium-term indicators (oscillators). The first is the Bollinger Bands around the actual global temperatures. As you can see global temperatures have reached the upper limit of the bands, which is usually an indication that a reversal is imminent, although this can occur a number of times, allowing for higher temperatures before the final top. In fact, you can see a few instances on the chart where temperatures continued higher even after the oscillators topped.

Our next chart is the Relative Strength Index. The RSI is modestly overheated but usually declines below 50 before we can be confident a significant decline is in force. The stochastic indicator also indicates modest, though not greatly overheated conditions.

The EMD prediction, shown above, indicates that quasi-periodic cycles are due for a downturn, agreeing with the other indicators above.

As we know, models are windsocks, not crystal balls, adjusted according to beliefs about current conditions. Lets judge these models by their performance, not on their appearance.