Comments on: Hansen’s Regression to Zero http://landshape.org/enm/hansens-regression-to-zero/ The power of numeracy Mon, 15 Mar 2010 09:48:22 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: DG http://landshape.org/enm/hansens-regression-to-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-176692 DG Mon, 19 Jan 2009 05:35:32 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1443#comment-176692 Stronger Solar-ENSO connections than ENSO-rainfall connections in the Indian Monsoon http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.A13B0240B Is there a link between Earth's magnetic field and low-latitude precipitation? http://geology.gsapubs.org/cgi/reprint/37/1/71.pdf Leif will be very busy debunking solar effects :) Stronger Solar-ENSO connections than ENSO-rainfall connections in the Indian Monsoon
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.A13B0240B

Is there a link between Earth’s magnetic field and low-latitude precipitation?
http://geology.gsapubs.org/cgi/reprint/37/1/71.pdf

Leif will be very busy debunking solar effects :)

]]> By: jae http://landshape.org/enm/hansens-regression-to-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-176685 jae Sun, 18 Jan 2009 21:27:33 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1443#comment-176685 It's fixed. It’s fixed.

]]> By: admin http://landshape.org/enm/hansens-regression-to-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-176682 admin Sun, 18 Jan 2009 19:15:17 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1443#comment-176682 jae: I thought I fixed that. Raven: Yes, if thats what's behind it, we will probably be hearing more about it. jae: I thought I fixed that.
Raven: Yes, if thats what’s behind it, we will probably be hearing more about it.

]]> By: Raven http://landshape.org/enm/hansens-regression-to-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-176681 Raven Sun, 18 Jan 2009 18:08:03 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1443#comment-176681 The funny thing is if you google Camp&Tung Svalgaard you will find a post on tamino where the AGW boosters are agreeing that Svalgaard is right and Camp&Tung must be picking up a spurious signal. I wonder what they would say now that the Oracle has decided that Camp&Tung is required to avoid admiting the models are flawed. The funny thing is if you google Camp&Tung Svalgaard you will find a post on tamino where the AGW boosters are agreeing that Svalgaard is right and Camp&Tung must be picking up a spurious signal. I wonder what they would say now that the Oracle has decided that Camp&Tung is required to avoid admiting the models are flawed.

]]> By: jae http://landshape.org/enm/hansens-regression-to-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-176674 jae Sun, 18 Jan 2009 15:42:16 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1443#comment-176674 Tung link doesn't work for me; I get the "404 page." Tung link doesn’t work for me; I get the “404 page.”

]]> By: admin http://landshape.org/enm/hansens-regression-to-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-176666 admin Sun, 18 Jan 2009 11:13:09 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1443#comment-176666 Raven: That makes sense. The thing that worried me about the paper was it sounded too simple. In the real world factors can't be isolated so easily. Raven: That makes sense. The thing that worried me about the paper was it sounded too simple. In the real world factors can’t be isolated so easily.

]]> By: Steve Short http://landshape.org/enm/hansens-regression-to-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-176664 Steve Short Sun, 18 Jan 2009 10:03:24 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1443#comment-176664 davids #13 Unless you are a sceptic, in which case you must be right slightly more often than not (in accord with Shannon entropy, MEP etc ;-). davids #13

Unless you are a sceptic, in which case you must be right slightly more often than not (in accord with Shannon entropy, MEP etc ;-) .

]]> By: Raven http://landshape.org/enm/hansens-regression-to-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-176660 Raven Sun, 18 Jan 2009 09:28:40 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1443#comment-176660 Lief Svalgaard (the infatigable solar debunker) is sceptical of the Camp&Tung paper. He points out that the solar TSI forcings changes by 100 times as much as the earth goes from solstice to solstice. If the direct effect of TSI explains the correlation that Camp&Tung found then it should be possible to find a seasonal signal that must 100 times as large (Leif claims the season signal does not exist). I am also sceptical of Camp&Tung's findings because if you compare the solar cycle to ENSO you will see that minimums have La Ninas and the rising edge of the maxs have El Ninos. This means that Camp&Tung could be picking up the ENSO signal. Of course, it could mean that there is a link between ENSO and the solar cycle but that would be an entirely new mechanism and would invalidate all of the modelling work done to date. Lief Svalgaard (the infatigable solar debunker) is sceptical of the Camp&Tung paper. He points out that the solar TSI forcings changes by 100 times as much as the earth goes from solstice to solstice. If the direct effect of TSI explains the correlation that Camp&Tung found then it should be possible to find a seasonal signal that must 100 times as large (Leif claims the season signal does not exist).

I am also sceptical of Camp&Tung’s findings because if you compare the solar cycle to ENSO you will see that minimums have La Ninas and the rising edge of the maxs have El Ninos. This means that Camp&Tung could be picking up the ENSO signal.

Of course, it could mean that there is a link between ENSO and the solar cycle but that would be an entirely new mechanism and would invalidate all of the modelling work done to date.

]]> By: davids http://landshape.org/enm/hansens-regression-to-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-176658 davids Sun, 18 Jan 2009 07:40:28 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1443#comment-176658 Jan: Or partisan. Perhaps you could call it a left-wing sentiment indicator. I think the left are wrong all of the time ;-) (but the right are wrong only most of the time). Jan: Or partisan. Perhaps you could call it a left-wing sentiment indicator. I think the left are wrong all of the time ;-) (but the right are wrong only most of the time).

]]> By: Jan Pompe http://landshape.org/enm/hansens-regression-to-zero/comment-page-1/#comment-176657 Jan Pompe Sun, 18 Jan 2009 07:26:05 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1443#comment-176657 David: I tend to agree with you but we wouldn't want to be accused of being unscientific so do you think there might be strong statistical support for that?;) David: I tend to agree with you but we wouldn’t want to be accused of being unscientific so do you think there might be strong statistical support for that?;)

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