Comments on: Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature

By: Nick Stokes

Nick Stokes — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 13:23:50 +0000

Well, Coho, my view on OHC remains – wait and see when the new instrumentation is settled. It's reinforced by a Willis statement at that link “suggesting that systematic long-period errors remain in one or more of these observing systems” (which doesn't quite gel with the mention of unprecedented accuracy).And don't worry about El Nino. We'd never confuse weather with climate But I must say I'm sick of the drought.

By: Nick Stokes

Nick Stokes — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 08:23:50 +0000

By: Nick Stokes

Nick Stokes — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 08:23:00 +0000

Well, Coho, my view on OHC remains – wait and see when the new instrumentation is settled. It’s reinforced by a Willis statement at that link “suggesting that systematic long-period errors remain in one or more of these observing systems” (which doesn’t quite gel with the mention of unprecedented accuracy).

And don’t worry about El Nino. We’d never confuse weather with climate But I must say I’m sick of the drought.

By: cohenite

cohenite — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 02:19:47 +0000

Nick; that Dominiques paper at RC has an alternative treatment here;http://climatesci.org/2008/06/20/diagnosis-of-g…And Sherro quotes someone saying it's going to get even harder for sceptics due to [AG]Warming taking off again; well it will be a mixed bag for me; at least I will be warmer; I'm sick of the cold.

By: cohenite

cohenite — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 02:19:00 +0000

Nick; that Dominiques paper at RC has an alternative treatment here;

http://climatesci.org/2008/06/20/diagnosis-of-global-sea-level-and-upper-ocean-heat-content-on-seasonal-to-interannual-timescales-paper-willis-et-al-2008-published/

And Sherro quotes someone saying it’s going to get even harder for sceptics due to [AG]Warming taking off again; well it will be a mixed bag for me; at least I will be warmer; I’m sick of the cold.

By: sherro

sherro — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 11:45:34 +0000

Please permit 2 comments to clarify what I seem to have made unclear.1. From whence comes the sudden power to warm the ocean surface in a month? And why does it seem to effect a lot of the globe simultaneiously?2. Here is an official explanation in partial answer to the above. I have not cleared this with the author so no names:”There are “two” processes at work. The enhanced greenhouse effect which has established a near monotonic warming trend of 0.15C/decade (give or take). Then there is everything else (mostly natural) which is noise on top of the montonic trend. Sometimes the noise adds to global warming and sometimes it takes away. In 1998 and 2005 the El Nino added (about) 0.2 and 0.1C to global warming. In recent years the La Nina took away (about) 0.1C. We are now in transition from La Nina to El Nino and have a very cool sun (perhaps the strongest solar minimum for a century). I suspect that the combination of all natural forcing is for a near zero effect ATM and we are now about equal with 1998 (perhaps a slight cooling). As the El Nino develops we will add to global warming and see monthly 1998 records and quite possibly the annual 1998 record bettered (though noting 1998 was perfectly timed wrt to the calendar year as it took most of the year for the El Nino to dissipate). The coming year is going to be extremely difficult for sceptics as global warming takes off. The true sceptics will give up the game, or at least moderate their opinions which are rapidly loosing what little support they had.”Now Nick and James and Andrew, I'm departing this argument and leaving others to argue out the meaning of the quote.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 11:45:00 +0000

Please permit 2 comments to clarify what I seem to have made unclear.

1. From whence comes the sudden power to warm the ocean surface in a month? And why does it seem to effect a lot of the globe simultaneiously?

2. Here is an official explanation in partial answer to the above. I have not cleared this with the author so no names:

“There are “two” processes at work. The enhanced greenhouse effect which has established a near monotonic warming trend of 0.15C/decade (give or take). Then there is everything else (mostly natural) which is noise on top of the montonic trend. Sometimes the noise adds to global warming and sometimes it takes away. In 1998 and 2005 the El Nino added (about) 0.2 and 0.1C to global warming. In recent years the La Nina took away (about) 0.1C. We are now in transition from La Nina to El Nino and have a very cool sun (perhaps the strongest solar minimum for a century). I suspect that the combination of all natural forcing is for a near zero effect ATM and we are now about equal with 1998 (perhaps a slight cooling). As the El Nino develops we will add to global warming and see monthly 1998 records and quite possibly the annual 1998 record bettered (though noting 1998 was perfectly timed wrt to the calendar year as it took most of the year for the El Nino to dissipate).

The coming year is going to be extremely difficult for sceptics as global warming takes off. The true sceptics will give up the game, or at least moderate their opinions which are rapidly loosing what little support they had.”

Now Nick and James and Andrew, I’m departing this argument and leaving others to argue out the meaning of the quote.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 22:34:07 +0000

“Sea levels are still rising.”And interestingly, the rate of change is slowing:http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/200…

By: Andrew

Andrew — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 22:34:00 +0000

“Sea levels are still rising.”

And interestingly, the rate of change is slowing:
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2009/07/22/sea-level-rise-an-update-shows-a-slowdown/

By: Andrew

Andrew — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 22:32:00 +0000

Nick-my question of what “reasonable skeptic” is still stands. What makes one reasonable or unreasonable?See what I mean?