The test of integration order from the previous post is applied to the major atmospheric forcings used in the GISS global climate models in recent years. These are available for 1880 to 2003 in a file called RadF.txt The codes for the forcings are self explanatory: W-M_GHGs, O3, StratH2O, Solar, LandUse, SnowAlb, StratAer, BC, ReflAer, AIE.
Below is the sum of the forcings.
We want to know the integration order of the global surface temperature series as well. The result:
Temp=1, W-M_GHGs=2, O3=2, StratH2O=2, Solar=0, LandUse=2, SnowAlb=2, StratAer=0, BC=2, ReflAer=2, AIE=2.
Temperature has an integration order I(1), while the most of the forcings have an integration order I(2). The only exceptions are Solar which comes in at I(0) in this test, and Stratospheric Aerosols (due to ultra-Plinian eruptions) also I(0). Its pretty clear that forcings related to anthropogenic factors are I(2), and temperature is I(1).
Our results are (mostly) consistent with Beenstock’s in this regard. Remembering that the test is not foolproof, the result for solar is suspicious, as he (and others) find it to be I(1). Solar has a huge 11 year cycle in it, and that might have something to do with it. You need to be very careful with confounding factors in these tests.
And it is (largely) because of this incompatibility between the orders of integration that Beenstock told Londonâ€™s Cass Business School that the link between rising greenhouse gas emissions and rising temperatures is â€œspuriousâ€:
â€œThe greenhouse effect is an illusion.â€
More choice quotes:
He warned that climatologists have misused statistics, leading them to the mistaken conclusion global warming is evidence of the greenhouse effect.
Professor Beenstock said that just because greenhouse gases and temperatures have risen together does not mean they are linked.
In the next post I’ll look at the basis for his prediction:
“If the sun’s heat continues to remain stable, and if carbon emissions continue to grow with the rate of growth of the world economy, global temperatures will fall by about 0.5C by 2050,” Professor Beenstock said.