Comments on: Is OHC Accelerating? http://landshape.org/enm/is-ohc-accelerating/ The Power of Numeracy Wed, 16 May 2012 18:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: kuhnkat http://landshape.org/enm/is-ohc-accelerating/#comment-838 kuhnkat Fri, 23 Oct 2009 08:50:25 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3048#comment-838 Luke,"Of course maybe the PDO doesn't really exist itself."Just to show you how wrong you are, I agree with this statement.Like all the ocean "cycles" they do not exist as independent entities. They are simply a group of similar measurements that scientists have decided to label as they appear somewhat regularly.I think the best way of identifying them is by saying they are the energy flow through that portion of the earth. They do not generate the energy. The properties of the area, density, momentum, mass, radiative, conduction, convection, magnetic, electrical... all help determine how the energy is distributed and absorbed or emitted to surrounding areas. Luke,”Of course maybe the PDO doesn't really exist itself.”Just to show you how wrong you are, I agree with this statement.Like all the ocean “cycles” they do not exist as independent entities. They are simply a group of similar measurements that scientists have decided to label as they appear somewhat regularly.I think the best way of identifying them is by saying they are the energy flow through that portion of the earth. They do not generate the energy. The properties of the area, density, momentum, mass, radiative, conduction, convection, magnetic, electrical… all help determine how the energy is distributed and absorbed or emitted to surrounding areas.

]]> By: kuhnkat http://landshape.org/enm/is-ohc-accelerating/#comment-837 kuhnkat Fri, 23 Oct 2009 03:50:25 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3048#comment-837 Luke,"Of course maybe the PDO doesn't really exist itself."Just to show you how wrong you are, I agree with this statement.Like all the ocean "cycles" they do not exist as independent entities. They are simply a group of similar measurements that scientists have decided to label as they appear somewhat regularly.I think the best way of identifying them is by saying they are the energy flow through that portion of the earth. They do not generate the energy. The properties of the area, density, momentum, mass, radiative, conduction, convection, magnetic, electrical... all help determine how the energy is distributed and absorbed or emitted to surrounding areas. Luke,”Of course maybe the PDO doesn't really exist itself.”Just to show you how wrong you are, I agree with this statement.Like all the ocean “cycles” they do not exist as independent entities. They are simply a group of similar measurements that scientists have decided to label as they appear somewhat regularly.I think the best way of identifying them is by saying they are the energy flow through that portion of the earth. They do not generate the energy. The properties of the area, density, momentum, mass, radiative, conduction, convection, magnetic, electrical… all help determine how the energy is distributed and absorbed or emitted to surrounding areas.

]]> By: Anonymous http://landshape.org/enm/is-ohc-accelerating/#comment-11900 Anonymous Fri, 23 Oct 2009 03:50:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3048#comment-11900 Luke, "Of course maybe the PDO doesn't really exist itself." Just to show you how wrong you are, I agree with this statement. Like all the ocean "cycles" they do not exist as independent entities. They are simply a group of similar measurements that scientists have decided to label as they appear somewhat regularly. I think the best way of identifying them is by saying they are the energy flow through that portion of the earth. They do not generate the energy. The properties of the area, density, momentum, mass, radiative, conduction, convection, magnetic, electrical... all help determine how the energy is distributed and absorbed or emitted to surrounding areas. Luke,

“Of course maybe the PDO doesn’t really exist itself.”

Just to show you how wrong you are, I agree with this statement.

Like all the ocean “cycles” they do not exist as independent entities. They are simply a group of similar measurements that scientists have decided to label as they appear somewhat regularly.

I think the best way of identifying them is by saying they are the energy flow through that portion of the earth. They do not generate the energy. The properties of the area, density, momentum, mass, radiative, conduction, convection, magnetic, electrical… all help determine how the energy is distributed and absorbed or emitted to surrounding areas.

]]> By: davids99us http://landshape.org/enm/is-ohc-accelerating/#comment-836 davids99us Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:51:24 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3048#comment-836 Luke, I think the important message of<a href="http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040313.shtml" rel="nofollow">http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040...</a> is the profoundeffect that ENSO has on both the N and S Pacific oceans. There is also therecent Loehle paper and references therein to large amplitude of the 60-70year natural climate cycles, potentially exceeding AGW of the last 50 years.<a href="http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3230" rel="nofollow">http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?i...</a>"On the other hand, studies cited herein have documented a 50–70 year cycleof climate oscillations overlaid on a simple linear warming trend since themid-1800s and have used this model to forecast cooling beginning between2001 and 2010, a prediction that seems to be upheld by the satellite andocean heat content data. " Luke, I think the important message ofhttp://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040… is the profoundeffect that ENSO has on both the N and S Pacific oceans. There is also therecent Loehle paper and references therein to large amplitude of the 60-70year natural climate cycles, potentially exceeding AGW of the last 50 years.http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?i…“On the other hand, studies cited herein have documented a 50–70 year cycleof climate oscillations overlaid on a simple linear warming trend since themid-1800s and have used this model to forecast cooling beginning between2001 and 2010, a prediction that seems to be upheld by the satellite andocean heat content data. “

]]> By: Anonymous http://landshape.org/enm/is-ohc-accelerating/#comment-11898 Anonymous Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:51:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3048#comment-11898 Luke, I think the important message of http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040313.shtml is the profound effect that ENSO has on both the N and S Pacific oceans. There is also the recent Loehle paper and references therein to large amplitude of the 60-70 year natural climate cycles, potentially exceeding AGW of the last 50 years. http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3230 "On the other hand, studies cited herein have documented a 50–70 year cycle of climate oscillations overlaid on a simple linear warming trend since the mid-1800s and have used this model to forecast cooling beginning between 2001 and 2010, a prediction that seems to be upheld by the satellite and ocean heat content data. " Luke, I think the important message of
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040313.shtml is the profound effect that ENSO has on both the N and S Pacific oceans. There is also the recent Loehle paper and references therein to large amplitude of the 60-70 year natural climate cycles, potentially exceeding AGW of the last 50 years.
http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3230

“On the other hand, studies cited herein have documented a 50–70 year cycle of climate oscillations overlaid on a simple linear warming trend since the mid-1800s and have used this model to forecast cooling beginning between 2001 and 2010, a prediction that seems to be upheld by the satellite and
ocean heat content data. “

]]> By: luke33 http://landshape.org/enm/is-ohc-accelerating/#comment-835 luke33 Wed, 21 Oct 2009 14:15:43 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3048#comment-835 Of course maybe the PDO doesn't really exist itself. Shakun, J. D., and J. Shaman (2009), Tropical origins of North and South Pacific decadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040313.And maybe the OHC estimates need work A new perspective on warming of the global oceansM. D. Palmer, S. A. Good, K. Haines, N. A. Rayner and P. A. Stott-Submitted to Geophysical Research Letters – Revised August 2009and as El Nino itself morphs into Modoki El Nino Of course maybe the PDO doesn't really exist itself. Shakun, J. D., and J. Shaman (2009), Tropical origins of North and South Pacific decadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040313.And maybe the OHC estimates need work A new perspective on warming of the global oceansM. D. Palmer, S. A. Good, K. Haines, N. A. Rayner and P. A. Stott-Submitted to Geophysical Research Letters – Revised August 2009and as El Nino itself morphs into Modoki El Nino

]]> By: Anonymous http://landshape.org/enm/is-ohc-accelerating/#comment-11897 Anonymous Wed, 21 Oct 2009 14:15:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3048#comment-11897 Of course maybe the PDO doesn't really exist itself. Shakun, J. D., and J. Shaman (2009), Tropical origins of North and South Pacific decadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040313. And maybe the OHC estimates need work A new perspective on warming of the global oceans M. D. Palmer, S. A. Good, K. Haines, N. A. Rayner and P. A. Stott- Submitted to Geophysical Research Letters – Revised August 2009 and as El Nino itself morphs into Modoki El Nino Of course maybe the PDO doesn’t really exist itself. Shakun, J. D., and J. Shaman (2009), Tropical origins of North and South Pacific decadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040313.

And maybe the OHC estimates need work A new perspective on warming of the global oceans
M. D. Palmer, S. A. Good, K. Haines, N. A. Rayner and P. A. Stott-
Submitted to Geophysical Research Letters – Revised August 2009

and as El Nino itself morphs into Modoki El Nino

]]> By: cohenite http://landshape.org/enm/is-ohc-accelerating/#comment-834 cohenite Sun, 18 Oct 2009 21:00:48 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3048#comment-834 Sorry, I double-linked the adjusted OHC site, the SST link is:<a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/15/global-sst-trend-down-near-zero-trend-since-2002-also-down/" rel="nofollow">http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/15/global-ss...</a>The reason I refer to ERBE and page 17, the page where the ERBE device findings of increased TOA OLR contradict all the model predictions of a decline, is that increase in TOA OLR carries a lot of extra energy with it, energy which otherwise would be put to increasing OHC. And yes the sea-level trend is still up but the paper I link to which finds the error in the TOPEX/Jason satellite measurement shows the rate of increase is declining, from ~ 3mm pa to ~1mm pa; 1 mmpa is pretty close to the error margins but the real point is with OHC declining or flat, sea-level increase declining, SST down, atmospheric temperatures down, reasonable [sic] conclusions are that there is no AGW effect, no energy is being stored in the oceans, that the climate sensitivity distinction between the equilibrium and transient responses is probably more theoretical than actual and finally, with the ERBE empirical findings, one has to ask, what ever happened to Miskolczi? Sorry, I double-linked the adjusted OHC site, the SST link is:http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/15/global-ss…The reason I refer to ERBE and page 17, the page where the ERBE device findings of increased TOA OLR contradict all the model predictions of a decline, is that increase in TOA OLR carries a lot of extra energy with it, energy which otherwise would be put to increasing OHC. And yes the sea-level trend is still up but the paper I link to which finds the error in the TOPEX/Jason satellite measurement shows the rate of increase is declining, from ~ 3mm pa to ~1mm pa; 1 mmpa is pretty close to the error margins but the real point is with OHC declining or flat, sea-level increase declining, SST down, atmospheric temperatures down, reasonable [sic] conclusions are that there is no AGW effect, no energy is being stored in the oceans, that the climate sensitivity distinction between the equilibrium and transient responses is probably more theoretical than actual and finally, with the ERBE empirical findings, one has to ask, what ever happened to Miskolczi?

]]> By: cohenite http://landshape.org/enm/is-ohc-accelerating/#comment-11894 cohenite Sun, 18 Oct 2009 21:00:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3048#comment-11894 Sorry, I double-linked the adjusted OHC site, the SST link is: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/15/global-sst-trend-down-near-zero-trend-since-2002-also-down/ The reason I refer to ERBE and page 17, the page where the ERBE device findings of increased TOA OLR contradict all the model predictions of a decline, is that increase in TOA OLR carries a lot of extra energy with it, energy which otherwise would be put to increasing OHC. And yes the sea-level trend is still up but the paper I link to which finds the error in the TOPEX/Jason satellite measurement shows the rate of increase is declining, from ~ 3mm pa to ~1mm pa; 1 mmpa is pretty close to the error margins but the real point is with OHC declining or flat, sea-level increase declining, SST down, atmospheric temperatures down, reasonable [sic] conclusions are that there is no AGW effect, no energy is being stored in the oceans, that the climate sensitivity distinction between the equilibrium and transient responses is probably more theoretical than actual and finally, with the ERBE empirical findings, one has to ask, what ever happened to Miskolczi? Sorry, I double-linked the adjusted OHC site, the SST link is:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/15/global-sst-trend-down-near-zero-trend-since-2002-also-down/

The reason I refer to ERBE and page 17, the page where the ERBE device findings of increased TOA OLR contradict all the model predictions of a decline, is that increase in TOA OLR carries a lot of extra energy with it, energy which otherwise would be put to increasing OHC. And yes the sea-level trend is still up but the paper I link to which finds the error in the TOPEX/Jason satellite measurement shows the rate of increase is declining, from ~ 3mm pa to ~1mm pa; 1 mmpa is pretty close to the error margins but the real point is with OHC declining or flat, sea-level increase declining, SST down, atmospheric temperatures down, reasonable [sic] conclusions are that there is no AGW effect, no energy is being stored in the oceans, that the climate sensitivity distinction between the equilibrium and transient responses is probably more theoretical than actual and finally, with the ERBE empirical findings, one has to ask, what ever happened to Miskolczi?

]]> By: kuhnkat http://landshape.org/enm/is-ohc-accelerating/#comment-833 kuhnkat Sun, 18 Oct 2009 18:33:02 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=3048#comment-833 Around 2003 the Argo network went on line. At this point the OHC increased dramatically.Now, our poor metrics on the ocean prior to the Argo network is absolutely a reasonable explanation why there might be a large difference between the computed OHC before and after.What is more questionable is why we would compute a trend using a splicing of data when the earlier section was so obviously much lower than the Argot data.This splice has added a large INCREASE in the trend that I simply do not see as supportable.As the sea level did NOT show a large jump during the same period, it does not support this OHC increase either.Would someone please show me what I missed?? Around 2003 the Argo network went on line. At this point the OHC increased dramatically.Now, our poor metrics on the ocean prior to the Argo network is absolutely a reasonable explanation why there might be a large difference between the computed OHC before and after.What is more questionable is why we would compute a trend using a splicing of data when the earlier section was so obviously much lower than the Argot data.This splice has added a large INCREASE in the trend that I simply do not see as supportable.As the sea level did NOT show a large jump during the same period, it does not support this OHC increase either.Would someone please show me what I missed??

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