I read an interesting article article about Peter Martin, head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. He has a refreshing, mature attitude to his job. 'I want people to challenge our data - that's a good thing, it helps us pick things up,' he says. Big contrast to the attitude of Climate Scientists. Examples that they believe they cannot be challenged are legion, from meetings to peer review. For example, emails expressing disagreement with the science are treated as threatening, as Read more [...] one

There is a battle brewing between dynamical and statistical models. The winner will be determined when the current neural ENSO conditions resolve into an El Nino or not in the current months. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society compares the predictions of ensembles of each type of model here. Although most of the set of dynamical and statistical model predictions issued during late April and early May 2012 predict continuation of neutral ENSO conditions through the Read more [...] none

To screen or not to screen? The question arises in the context of selecting which sets of tree-rings to use for millennial temperature reconstructions. One side, represented by CA, says screening is just plain wrong: In the last few days, readers have drawn attention to relevant articles discussing closely related statistical errors under terms like “selecting on the dependent variable” or “double dipping – the use of the same data set for selection and selective analysis”. Another Read more [...] none

Just what is the 'research' that Gergis et.al. claims to have done? And what are the sceptics complaining about? The 'research' claimed by the Gergis et.al. team is captured in the following graphical representation of the past temperature of the Australiasn region. The hockey stick shape has also been produced using similar methods and random data, as shown in my AIG news article in 2006, and also in chapter 11 of my 2007 book "Niche Modeling". It is obvious that if the same result Read more [...] none

You may by now have heard here or here that "Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium" by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly, has been put "on-hold" by the Journal, due to "an issue" in the processing of the data used in the study. It is illuminating to review the crowing commentary by Australian science intelligencia and the press reaction to the paper. ABC's Read more [...] none

ANU Climate Science girlie-men exaggerated the threats as well:

In a six-page ruling made last week, Mr Pilgrim found that 10 of 11 documents, all emails, “do not contain threats to kill” and the other “could be regarded as intimidating and at its highest perhaps alluding to a threat”.

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The IPCC, in the AR4 working group one, stated what could be called the central claim of global warming, the estimate of the net radiative forcing. "The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the TAR, leading to very high confidence that the effect of human activities since 1750 has been a net positive forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m–2." Remember a forcing is an imbalance that causes heating, like a hot plate heating a saucepan of water. Read more [...] 25 com

To follow up on my previous post ("Is Finkelstein totally clueless about the Internet") with real data, I examine the stats of the log files on my server. Below is a table generated by the log file analyzer Awstats for the first 2 months of my server http://landshape.org. Month Unique visitorsNumber of visitsPages HitsBandwidth Jan 20127,361 18,526 71,689 204,7183.02 GB Feb 20127,081 16,422 113,111233,1587.67 GB You can see the number of hits for January and February is 205K and 233K Read more [...] 3 com

The Media Inquiry by Finkelstein Q.C. proposed on page 301 the regulation of blogs with more than a specific number of hits per annum, suggesting an equivalency with print media: If a publisher distributes more than 3000 copies of print per issue or a news internet site has a minimum of 15 000 hits per annum it should be subject to the jurisdiction of the News Media Council, but not otherwise. These numbers are arbitrary, but a line must be drawn somewhere. Does he know how many actual readers Read more [...] 6 com

Members of the Independent Inquiry into Media Regulation at Sydney University. In the middle is Chair of Inquiry Ray Finkelstein centre, Chris Young (left) and Prof. Matthew Ricketson (right) When I started in 2005 fighting to defend normal scientific standards over the exaggerations and biases of climate science extremism, I never thought it would end up in a fight for free speech over left-wing totalitarianism. Apparently, based on the Finkelstein Media Inquiry, it has come to this. Some Read more [...] none

Dick Smith, an Australian retail millionaire, has offered a $1M prize first to an italian inventor, and now to a greek company, Defkalion, if they can demonstrate a commercial LENR (low energy nuclear reaction, aka cold fusion) to the satisfaction of third-party scientific observers. As I am convinced this is a scam similar to Firepower International (make sure you look it up on Wikipedia) I am not prepared to waste money on this until the test conditions have been agreed on. As Read more [...] 3 com

Great new application from WUWT contrasts the predictions of two models of global warming, Scafetta's empirical resonance model and the IPCC general circulation models. I was asked to make sense of this from Rahmstorf and Foster: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022, referenced here at RC: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=10475. I haven't read the paper in detail, and I find I have to do that to really assess it. So I can only comment on the general approach. Although Read more [...] 3 com

Newt Gingrich recovered strongly to pip Romney at the post for the South Carolina Primary in a race with a number of reversals, shown clearly in the Gallup Daily Poll above. In the end it wasn't close with Newt 40 to Mitt 28%, as shown on this cool Google App. So the race of 2012 is turning out to be far more exciting than predicted, and with Mittens fading in the polls, the big-heads who named Mitt Romney a shoe-in for the nomination must be feeling the heat. The results in SC reflect Read more [...] none

The GOP primaries race took another twist on a recount today, with the reversal of the win by 8 votes by Romney in Iowa, to a win by Santorum by 34 votes. The score for Romney is now 0-1, spoiling his chance of a hat-trick win in South Carolina. The Gallup daily tracking poll today shows the reversals in sentiment going in the South Carolina race. Read more [...] none

Support for Ron Paul's ideas is growing in Australia as shown by some recent pro-Paul posts at prominent blog sites: Jennifer Marohasy Ron Paul for US President, On-line Opinion Left's Profitable Pauline Conversion JoNova and In 2002 Ron Paul saw the next ten years coming. Further support can be seen on Facebook, with of the Australian Ron Paul pages are merging into a single page Australians for Ron Paul 2012. I try to reserve my judgement on winners, and study the trends of Read more [...] none

Two things I have noticed while tracking polls that differentiate Ron Paul's from the others. The way support for Ron Paul is firming from the twitter tracking Eg. Support for Mittens has a tendency to droop suddenly, with tweets about him dropping almost to zero, but RP stays firm throughout. I think people are running out of things to talk about him, as they have with the other candidates. But RP at least gives people a hopeful, positive conversational thread. Perhaps that is how elections Read more [...] none

One of the themes we have dealt with repeatedly is bias: in global warming reporting and research, especially statistical bias. Bias in the media against the Ron Paul campaign is becoming a big issue. Above is a clip of people telling Dana Bash, a CNN news reporter, what they thought of her biased reporting. One incident was were Dana reported that Republicans in general were worried "like I am" that RP would continue on and hurt her presumptive nominee Mitt Romney. In another hilarious Read more [...] none

November 20, 2008 Ron Paul said in a New York Times / Freakonomics interview: “I try to look at global warming the same way I look at all other serious issues: as objectively and open-minded as possible. There is clear evidence that the temperatures in some parts of the globe are rising, but temperatures are cooling in other parts. The average surface temperature had risen for several decades, but it fell back substantially in the past few years. Clearly there is something afoot. The question Read more [...] 11 com

What an exciting days racing in New Hampshire in the Tour de President! As expected, Mitt Romney in the yellow jersey after his (disputed) win in Iowa, with his lycra and billion-dollar techno-bike, opened up a commanding gap from the peloton, but Ron Paul riding his $10 Malvern star and air force scrubs stayed with him and was actually gaining a couple of points a day (RPs speech here). Ron Paul and Rand Paul "I Went" photo goes viral. The press dishonored themselves again with some of Read more [...] one

Using realtime trends in Twitter to track frontrunners Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.

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Click here. Libertarian Dr Ron Paul gets more than all of the others combined.

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A couple of new entries in the links section: Sabermetric Research does it own sports research and reviews statistical studies of sports research. I added this after reading one of my Chrissy gifts - Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game - by Michael Lewis, now a movie starring Brad Pitt, a David vs Goliath story of stats over precedent. Status Iatrogenicus by Scott K. Aberegg, M.D., and ER physician in Salt Lake City who also has a Medical Evidence Blog I follow. This blog is about Read more [...] none

Another mysterious communication from Chan the Rossi Replicator has appeared. Curiouser and curiouser (said the E-Cat). In it, he gives insight into not only his view of the mechanism, details of the formula and activation proceedure, but also details of his lab: I live in tropics and work outside under a tin roof. A large fan is used to cool me and blow away possible combustible gases. Concrete blocks are easy to set up for protection. I picked plantains for 6 mos to afford a good used glove Read more [...] 8 com

Global temperature TLT anomaly for RSS MSU is almost back to zero at 0.03C. The most reliable estimates of temperature have gone nowhere for over 30 years.

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Andrew Bolt picked up on one of the emails from Climategate 2 that gives a fascinating insight into the collusion between academia and the WWF in the manufacturing of environmental scares. It also shows the role of the precautionary principle as a "deus ex machina", a device of dubious merit for solving tricky problems in a plot. Step 1. At 12:21 13/09/99 -0400, Andrew Markham, director of World Wildlife Fund's Climate Change Campaign, writes to Mike Hulme at UAE: >Meanwhile, Hurricane Read more [...] 2 com

To some, the Rossi E-Cat device has come out of nowhere, perhaps fueling the skepticism. This article in the Nebraska Engineer (blog) lists a number of competitors that may soon have marketable applications. These include 1. Andre Rossi, who is keeping ahead of the pack by promising an electricity generator within a year. 2. Defkalion Green Technologies claim they have a LENR/Cold Fusion product not based upon Rossi’s core design, perhaps based on another researcher Piantelli. They Read more [...] 6 com

Have you listened to the Ray Hadley audio here ripping into Tim Flannery? Bolt doesn't go into detail, but its well worth the 20min listen. Apparently Flannery fabricated the whole Crikey story about a media setup over his Hawksbury River house, with interviews with the local resident in question to prove it. Ray calls him "low scum" and a "liar" repeatedly. Strong stuff. Off to court we go again. Climategate2: This from Mike Hulme is interesting recommending CSIRO as being reliable for Read more [...] none

Lovely “David Jones” subject: RE: African stations used in HadCRU global data set to: “Phil Jones” Thanks Phil for the input and paper. I will get back to you with comments next week. Fortunately in Australia our sceptics are rather scientifically incompetent. It is also easier for us in that we have a policy of providing any complainer with every single station observation when they question our data (this usually snows them) and the Australian data is in pretty good order anyway Read more [...] 2 com

From Vortex list. Re: [Vo]:Rossi opens 10 KW expression of interest list and sets 10 kW price Aussie Guy E-Cat Tue, 22 Nov 2011 01:15:21 -0800 Just placed my order for 10 x 10 kW plants. Will install them, at no cost in my, by children and by friends homes. Rossi said in the radio interview that they had cleared the certification issues and they expected the 10 kW plants to be available in less than 12 months. With a price of $5,400 for a 10 kW thermal plant, this will really upset the Read more [...] 2 com

On IPCC scientists test the Exit doors. Professor Palutikof said it would take a while for the effects of climate change to become visible. But without action, she said, “gradually, over time, that signal will emerge with resounding clarity”. Well that's inconvenient, isn't it? So how about anomalous heat in the ocean, the melting of glaciers and arctic ice. How about the surface temperature and the sea level? How about droughts, floods, hurricanes and cyclones? You know -- like the Read more [...] 5 com