LENR demonstrated at Austin Trade Show

Renewables, man, get something for nothing. Harness the infinite power of wind, water, wave and tide. Why hasn't it been done before? But of course it has - two thousand years ago - and has yet to overcome three basic and insurmountable problems": intermittent, depends on locally weak, dispersed sources of energy, and no viable technology to store significant amounts of power. Bummer.... But Low Energy Nuclear Reactions, or LENR, are showing much more promise as an alternative energy source Read more [...]

Summary: NZ Climate Science Coalition vs. NIWA

More thought-provoking thoughts from Richard on the duties and responsibilities of statutory bodies like NIWA. (NIWA is actually an incorporated body that is owned by the Crown, where-ever that plays into things.) Anyway, everyone seems to agree that their handling of the temperature records in New Zealand is biased and deficient. The issue is, does scientific incompetence violate their charter? With all this evidence, the Coalition case is looking very good on the plain facts. The threat Read more [...]

Final Day: NZ Climate Science Coalition vs. NIWA

Quote from the defense: He must have been responding to our charge that NIWA did not perform its statutory duty. He said: “They’re not duties, they’re not called duties, they’re called operating principles.” This seemed to come from the current legislation, or recent decisions. Where in the operating principles is the principle that government climate scientists be "in bed" with green groups like the WWF putting pressure on government to enact green policies. The disclosures reveal Read more [...]

Day 2: NZ Climate Science Coalition vs. NIWA

Quote of the day from New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research: The matters [at issue] arise between the plaintiff’s (the Coalition’s) Statement of Claim (SOC) and the Defendant’s (NIWA’s) Statement of Defence (SOD). NIWA counter-claimed they had no obligation to pursue excellence or to use best-quality scientific practices and also that the national temperature record was not only not official, but they themselves had no obligation to produce or maintain it. Read more [...]

Benefits of Global Warming

A new WSJ article signed by 16 scientists: A recent study of a wide variety of policy options by Yale economist William Nordhaus showed that nearly the highest benefit-to-cost ratio is achieved for a policy that allows 50 more years of economic growth unimpeded by greenhouse gas controls. This would be especially beneficial to the less-developed parts of the world that would like to share some of the same advantages of material well-being, health and life expectancy that the fully developed parts Read more [...]

Peer review doesn’t stop 172 fake papers

Its reported that a new record has been set by a Japanese anesthesiologist for most retractions by a single author. An investigation of 212 of Yoshitaka Fujii’s 249 published papers found that he had invented patients, forged evidence that medication was administered, and signed on as co-authors other scientists who had no idea they were affiliated with his research. There are a couple of simple solutions to this. First, archive all the data and code and expect reviewers to go through it. Read more [...]

Perth 1940 Max Min Daily Temps

Previous posts have introduced the work that Chris Gillham is doing in spot auditing the accuracy of the Bureau of Meteorology's temperature records. He has now re-recorded the daily max and min temperatures from one Australian weather station for one year, Perth 9034 in 1940, using original sources in The West Australian newspaper. Below is an initial look at the historic data (in red) compared to the BoM's "unadjusted" or "raw" records (grey) for the station. Its fairly clear that Read more [...]

Perth 1940 Jan-Dec – Errors

Chris Gillham has completed re-digitizing one years worth of the daily temperature records for Perth in 1940 (perth-1940-actual-raw). These are digitised for all of 1940 at Perth Regional Office 9034 from temperatures published in The West Australian newspaper. While the majority of the temperatures agree with contemporary BoM data, up to a third of the temperatures in some months disagreed, sometimes by over 1C! This is a very strange pattern of errors, and difficult to explain. I will Read more [...]

Rewriting the Temperature Records – Adelaide 1912

Record temperature always make the news, with climate alarmists trumpeting any record hot day. But what if the historic record temperatures recorded by BoM were adjusted down, and recent records were not records at all? More detective work using old newspapers by Chis Gillham in Adelaide this time. The BoM claims the hottest ever Feb max at West Terrace was 43.4C on 1 February 1912. They got the date sort of right except the Adelaide Advertiser below shows Feb 1 at 112.5F (44.7C) and Feb 2 Read more [...]

Perth 1940 Jan-Mar Historic Comparisons

Continuing the comparison of historic sources of temperature and contemporary records, Chris Gillham has compiled a list of maximum and minimum daily temperatures for Perth for the months of January, February and March 1940 and uncovered some strange discrepancies (highlighted - all months at perth-newspapers-mar-qtr-1940). Chris notes that while BoM's contemporary temperatures largely agree with temperatures reported in newspapers of the day, a couple of temperatures in each month disagree Read more [...]

Should the ABS take over the BoM?

I read an interesting article article about Peter Martin, head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. He has a refreshing, mature attitude to his job. 'I want people to challenge our data - that's a good thing, it helps us pick things up,' he says. Big contrast to the attitude of Climate Scientists. Examples that they believe they cannot be challenged are legion, from meetings to peer review. For example, emails expressing disagreement with the science are treated as threatening, as Read more [...]

Dynamical vs Statistical Models Battle Over ENSO

There is a battle brewing between dynamical and statistical models. The winner will be determined when the current neural ENSO conditions resolve into an El Nino or not in the current months. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society compares the predictions of ensembles of each type of model here. Although most of the set of dynamical and statistical model predictions issued during late April and early May 2012 predict continuation of neutral ENSO conditions through the Read more [...]

Screening on the dependent, auto-correlated variable

To screen or not to screen? The question arises in the context of selecting which sets of tree-rings to use for millennial temperature reconstructions. One side, represented by CA, says screening is just plain wrong: In the last few days, readers have drawn attention to relevant articles discussing closely related statistical errors under terms like “selecting on the dependent variable” or “double dipping – the use of the same data set for selection and selective analysis”. Another Read more [...]

“This is commonly referred to as ‘research’” – Gergis

Just what is the 'research' that Gergis et.al. claims to have done? And what are the sceptics complaining about? The 'research' claimed by the Gergis et.al. team is captured in the following graphical representation of the past temperature of the Australiasn region. The hockey stick shape has also been produced using similar methods and random data, as shown in my AIG news article in 2006, and also in chapter 11 of my 2007 book "Niche Modeling". It is obvious that if the same result Read more [...]

Gergis’ hockeystick “on hold”

You may by now have heard here or here that "Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium" by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly, has been put "on-hold" by the Journal, due to "an issue" in the processing of the data used in the study. It is illuminating to review the crowing commentary by Australian science intelligencia and the press reaction to the paper. ABC's Read more [...]

Levitus data on ocean forcing confirms skeptics, falsifies IPCC

The IPCC, in the AR4 working group one, stated what could be called the central claim of global warming, the estimate of the net radiative forcing. "The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the TAR, leading to very high confidence that the effect of human activities since 1750 has been a net positive forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m–2." Remember a forcing is an imbalance that causes heating, like a hot plate heating a saucepan of water. Read more [...]

How many readers is 40 hits a day?

To follow up on my previous post ("Is Finkelstein totally clueless about the Internet") with real data, I examine the stats of the log files on my server. Below is a table generated by the log file analyzer Awstats for the first 2 months of my server http://landshape.org. Month Unique visitorsNumber of visitsPages HitsBandwidth Jan 20127,361 18,526 71,689 204,7183.02 GB Feb 20127,081 16,422 113,111233,1587.67 GB You can see the number of hits for January and February is 205K and 233K Read more [...]

Is Finkelstein Totally Clueless About the Internet?

The Media Inquiry by Finkelstein Q.C. proposed on page 301 the regulation of blogs with more than a specific number of hits per annum, suggesting an equivalency with print media: If a publisher distributes more than 3000 copies of print per issue or a news internet site has a minimum of 15 000 hits per annum it should be subject to the jurisdiction of the News Media Council, but not otherwise. These numbers are arbitrary, but a line must be drawn somewhere. Does he know how many actual readers Read more [...]

Finkelstein the new face of totalitarianism

Members of the Independent Inquiry into Media Regulation at Sydney University. In the middle is Chair of Inquiry Ray Finkelstein centre, Chris Young (left) and Prof. Matthew Ricketson (right) When I started in 2005 fighting to defend normal scientific standards over the exaggerations and biases of climate science extremism, I never thought it would end up in a fight for free speech over left-wing totalitarianism. Apparently, based on the Finkelstein Media Inquiry, it has come to this. Some Read more [...]

Dick Smith Offers $1M For Proof of LENR

Dick Smith, an Australian retail millionaire, has offered a $1M prize first to an italian inventor, and now to a greek company, Defkalion, if they can demonstrate a commercial LENR (low energy nuclear reaction, aka cold fusion) to the satisfaction of third-party scientific observers. As I am convinced this is a scam similar to Firepower International (make sure you look it up on Wikipedia) I am not prepared to waste money on this until the test conditions have been agreed on. As Read more [...]

Scafetta vs the IPCC

Great new application from WUWT contrasts the predictions of two models of global warming, Scafetta's empirical resonance model and the IPCC general circulation models. I was asked to make sense of this from Rahmstorf and Foster: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022, referenced here at RC: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=10475. I haven't read the paper in detail, and I find I have to do that to really assess it. So I can only comment on the general approach. Although Read more [...]

Newt Kills South Carolina Primary

Newt Gingrich recovered strongly to pip Romney at the post for the South Carolina Primary in a race with a number of reversals, shown clearly in the Gallup Daily Poll above. In the end it wasn't close with Newt 40 to Mitt 28%, as shown on this cool Google App. So the race of 2012 is turning out to be far more exciting than predicted, and with Mittens fading in the polls, the big-heads who named Mitt Romney a shoe-in for the nomination must be feeling the heat. The results in SC reflect Read more [...]

Ron Paul’s Australian Support

Support for Ron Paul's ideas is growing in Australia as shown by some recent pro-Paul posts at prominent blog sites: Jennifer Marohasy Ron Paul for US President, On-line Opinion Left's Profitable Pauline Conversion JoNova and In 2002 Ron Paul saw the next ten years coming. Further support can be seen on Facebook, with of the Australian Ron Paul pages are merging into a single page Australians for Ron Paul 2012. I try to reserve my judgement on winners, and study the trends of Read more [...]

Behind the Poll Numbers, Ron Pauls Support

Two things I have noticed while tracking polls that differentiate Ron Paul's from the others. The way support for Ron Paul is firming from the twitter tracking Eg. Support for Mittens has a tendency to droop suddenly, with tweets about him dropping almost to zero, but RP stays firm throughout. I think people are running out of things to talk about him, as they have with the other candidates. But RP at least gives people a hopeful, positive conversational thread. Perhaps that is how elections Read more [...]

Snowballing Bias and Corruption

One of the themes we have dealt with repeatedly is bias: in global warming reporting and research, especially statistical bias. Bias in the media against the Ron Paul campaign is becoming a big issue. Above is a clip of people telling Dana Bash, a CNN news reporter, what they thought of her biased reporting. One incident was were Dana reported that Republicans in general were worried "like I am" that RP would continue on and hurt her presumptive nominee Mitt Romney. In another hilarious Read more [...]

Ron Paul on Global Warming

November 20, 2008 Ron Paul said in a New York Times / Freakonomics interview: “I try to look at global warming the same way I look at all other serious issues: as objectively and open-minded as possible. There is clear evidence that the temperatures in some parts of the globe are rising, but temperatures are cooling in other parts. The average surface temperature had risen for several decades, but it fell back substantially in the past few years. Clearly there is something afoot. The question Read more [...]