Circularity and the Hockeystick: coming around again 6

The recent posts at climateaudit and WUWT show that climate scientists Gergis and Karoly were willing to manipulate their study to ensure a hockeystick result in the Southern Hemisphere, and resisted advice from editors of the Journal of Climate to report alternative approaches to establish robustness of their study. The alternative the editors suggested of […]


Is the problem alarmism, or prestige-seeking? 13

We all make mistakes. Sometime we exaggerate the risks, and sometimes we foolishly blunder into situations we regret. Climate skeptics often characterize their opponents as ‘alarmist’. But is the real problem a tendency for climate scientists to be ‘nervous ninnies’? I was intrigued by the recent verdict in the case of the scientists before an […]


The Creation of Consensus via Administrative Abuse 9

The existence of ‘consensus’ around core claims of global warming is often cited as some kind of warrant for action. A recent article by Roger Pielke Jr reported the IPCC response to his attempts to correct biases and errors in AR4 in his field of expertise — extreme events losses. As noted at CA, he […]


Opinions on the New Zealand AGW Judgement 14

Apropos the New Zealand AGW case, comments below by Goon and Ross: # Goon (8) Says: September 8th, 2012 at 3:45 pm Justifying the unjustifiable. Don’t believe me…. then here is where the raw data lives. http://cliflo.niwa.co.nz/ Register and have a look for yourself. Nothing even remotely approaching a 1 degree/century trend in the raw […]


Lewandowsky article is a truly appalling piece of social science – Aitkin 6

Don Aitkin just weighted in on the Lewandowsky affair as Queensland University’s John Cook doubles down at the Conversation. about 1 hour ago Don Aitkin writer, speaker and teacher (logged in via email @grapevine.com.au) Oh dear. The Lewandowsky article is a truly appalling piece of social science. How did it ever get past ordinary peer […]


Carbon abatement from wind power – zero 4

Zip, nil, nada. That’s the findings of a two-year analysis of Victoria’s wind-farm developments by mechanical engineer Hamish Cumming. Despite hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayers money, from subsidies and green energy schemes driven by the renewable energy target, surprise, surprise, Victoria’s wind-farm developments have saved virtually zero carbon dioxide emissions due to their […]


Lewandowsky — again 5

This guy, a UWA employee, was shown by a Arlene Composta to be the most naive of leftists. He now says that climate skeptics are conspiracy theorist wackos. We have responded to this guy before: He thinks the cognitive processes of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) sceptics is deficient and on the same level as “truthers” […]


Not cointegrated, so global warming is not anthropogenic – Beenstock 3

Cointegration has been mentioned previously and is one of the highest ranking search terms on landshape. We have also discussed the cointegration manuscript from 2009 by Beenstock and Reingewertz, and I see he has picked up another author and submitted it to an open access journal here. Here is the abstract. Polynomial cointegration tests of […]


Abandon Government Sponsored Research on Forecasting Climate – Green 26

Kesten Green, now of U South Australia, has a manuscript up called Evidence-based Improvements to Climate Forecasting: Progress and Recommendations arguing that evidence-based research on climate forecasting finds no support for fear of dangerous man-made global warming, because simple, inexpensive, extrapolation models are more accurate than the complex and expensive “General Circulation Models” used by […]


LENR demonstrated at Austin Trade Show 6

Renewables, man, get something for nothing. Harness the infinite power of wind, water, wave and tide. Why hasn’t it been done before? But of course it has – two thousand years ago – and has yet to overcome three basic and insurmountable problems”: intermittent, depends on locally weak, dispersed sources of energy, and no viable […]


Summary: NZ Climate Science Coalition vs. NIWA 9

More thought-provoking thoughts from Richard on the duties and responsibilities of statutory bodies like NIWA. (NIWA is actually an incorporated body that is owned by the Crown, where-ever that plays into things.) Anyway, everyone seems to agree that their handling of the temperature records in New Zealand is biased and deficient. The issue is, does […]


Final Day: NZ Climate Science Coalition vs. NIWA 8

Quote from the defense: He must have been responding to our charge that NIWA did not perform its statutory duty. He said: “They’re not duties, they’re not called duties, they’re called operating principles.” This seemed to come from the current legislation, or recent decisions. Where in the operating principles is the principle that government climate […]


Day 2: NZ Climate Science Coalition vs. NIWA 4

Quote of the day from New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research: The matters [at issue] arise between the plaintiff’s (the Coalition’s) Statement of Claim (SOC) and the Defendant’s (NIWA’s) Statement of Defence (SOD). NIWA counter-claimed they had no obligation to pursue excellence or to use best-quality scientific practices and also that the […]


Benefits of Global Warming 7

A new WSJ article signed by 16 scientists: A recent study of a wide variety of policy options by Yale economist William Nordhaus showed that nearly the highest benefit-to-cost ratio is achieved for a policy that allows 50 more years of economic growth unimpeded by greenhouse gas controls. This would be especially beneficial to the […]


Peer review doesn’t stop 172 fake papers 3

Its reported that a new record has been set by a Japanese anesthesiologist for most retractions by a single author. An investigation of 212 of Yoshitaka Fujii’s 249 published papers found that he had invented patients, forged evidence that medication was administered, and signed on as co-authors other scientists who had no idea they were […]


Rplot

Perth 1940 Max Min Daily Temps 16

Previous posts have introduced the work that Chris Gillham is doing in spot auditing the accuracy of the Bureau of Meteorology’s temperature records. He has now re-recorded the daily max and min temperatures from one Australian weather station for one year, Perth 9034 in 1940, using original sources in The West Australian newspaper. Below is […]


Perth 1940 Jan-Dec – Errors 5

Chris Gillham has completed re-digitizing one years worth of the daily temperature records for Perth in 1940 (perth-1940-actual-raw). These are digitised for all of 1940 at Perth Regional Office 9034 from temperatures published in The West Australian newspaper. While the majority of the temperatures agree with contemporary BoM data, up to a third of the […]


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Rewriting the Temperature Records – Adelaide 1912 9

Record temperature always make the news, with climate alarmists trumpeting any record hot day. But what if the historic record temperatures recorded by BoM were adjusted down, and recent records were not records at all? More detective work using old newspapers by Chis Gillham in Adelaide this time. The BoM claims the hottest ever Feb […]


Perth 1940 Jan-Mar Historic Comparisons 5

Continuing the comparison of historic sources of temperature and contemporary records, Chris Gillham has compiled a list of maximum and minimum daily temperatures for Perth for the months of January, February and March 1940 and uncovered some strange discrepancies (highlighted – all months at perth-newspapers-mar-qtr-1940). Chris notes that while BoM’s contemporary temperatures largely agree with […]

perth 1940 discrepancies

Comparison of historic temperature with BoMs record 6

Siliggy has pulled a simple list of maximum temperatures for Adelaide from old newspapers early last century then compared to the BOM records for that time. In most cases the BoM records are 1.5C cooler that the current record. What a clear demonstration of how much they have been adjusted down — equal to the […]


Should the ABS take over the BoM? 4

I read an interesting article article about Peter Martin, head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. He has a refreshing, mature attitude to his job. ‘I want people to challenge our data – that’s a good thing, it helps us pick things up,’ he says. Big contrast to the attitude of Climate Scientists. Examples that […]


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Dynamical vs Statistical Models Battle Over ENSO 19

There is a battle brewing between dynamical and statistical models. The winner will be determined when the current neural ENSO conditions resolve into an El Nino or not in the current months. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society compares the predictions of ensembles of each type of model here. Although most of the […]


Screening on the dependent, auto-correlated variable 3

To screen or not to screen? The question arises in the context of selecting which sets of tree-rings to use for millennial temperature reconstructions. One side, represented by CA, says screening is just plain wrong: In the last few days, readers have drawn attention to relevant articles discussing closely related statistical errors under terms like […]


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“This is commonly referred to as ‘research’” – Gergis 3

Just what is the ‘research’ that Gergis et.al. claims to have done? And what are the sceptics complaining about? The ‘research’ claimed by the Gergis et.al. team is captured in the following graphical representation of the past temperature of the Australiasn region. The hockey stick shape has also been produced using similar methods and random […]


Gergis’ hockeystick “on hold” 11

You may by now have heard here or here that “Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium” by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly, has been put “on-hold” by the Journal, due to “an issue” in the processing of the data […]


10 of 11 emails not threats

ANU Climate Science girlie-men exaggerated the threats as well: In a six-page ruling made last week, Mr Pilgrim found that 10 of 11 documents, all emails, “do not contain threats to kill” and the other “could be regarded as intimidating and at its highest perhaps alluding to a threat”.


Levitus data on ocean forcing confirms skeptics, falsifies IPCC 34

The IPCC, in the AR4 working group one, stated what could be called the central claim of global warming, the estimate of the net radiative forcing. “The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the TAR, leading to very high confidence that the effect of human activities since 1750 has […]


How many readers is 40 hits a day? 15

To follow up on my previous post (“Is Finkelstein totally clueless about the Internet”) with real data, I examine the stats of the log files on my server. Below is a table generated by the log file analyzer Awstats for the first 2 months of my server http://landshape.org. Month Unique visitors Number of visits Pages […]