Q: Where Do Climate Models Fail? A: Almost Everywhere

“How much do I fail thee. Let me count the ways”

Ben Santer’s latest model/observation comparison paper demonstrates that climate realists were right and climate models exaggerate warming:

The multimodel average tropospheric temperature trends are outside the 5–95 percentile range of RSS results at most latitudes.

Where do the models fail?

1. Significantly warmer than reality (95% CI) in the lower troposphere at all latitudes, except for the arctic.

2. Significantly warmer than reality (95% CI) in the mid-troposphere at all latitudes, except for the possible polar regions.

3. Significant warmer that reality (95% CI) in the lower stratosphere at all latitudes, except possibly polar regions.

Answer: Everywhere except for polar regions where uncertainty is greater.


  1. Pat Frank December 13, 2012 3:37 am

    The TLS 5-95% envelope is a precision, not an accuracy. Satellite tropospheric temperatures are re-scaled to the perceived best-performing satellite which is assumed to produce the most accurate temperatures. Doing so increases the precision of the final averages. The accuracy limit of the tropospheric temperatures is not well constrained. 

    Notice also that the model projections are presented without any physically valid error bars. Model variability is improperly represented as the physical uncertainty of the mean projection. It’s not. A properly calculated model physical uncertainty would have error bars extending far beyond the plot limits.

    Glad to see you’re still at it, David. :-)